Modeling Wicked Problems 

Paul N. Edwards (U. Michigan), Miriam Diamond (U. Toronto), and Pablo
Jensen (ENS de Lyon)

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Wicked problems (Rittel & Weber, 1973)
 Complex problems with no simple answers
 Hard to formulate
 What counts as a solution depends on how the problem is framed (and vice
versa)
 Competing interests involved
 Each with a different view of the problem
 Strong social & ideological dimensions
 Involves behavior, belief, and identity
 Cannot be definitively solved
 Efforts to solve one aspect of a wicked problem create new, unanticipated
problems

 Unfortunately… scientific methods were (historically) developed

specifically to deal with “tame” problems

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Super wicked problems (Levin et al., 2012)
 Time is running out
 Problem is caused by same people who seek to solve it
 Central authority to address problem is weak or
nonexistent
 Irrational discounting occurs that pushes the problem into
the future

Paul N. Edwards, School of Information,

University of Michigan
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 The 2003 European heat wave

30,000 deaths
attributed

Forest fires and

crop damage
seriously impacted
economy

Economic losses in
excess of €9.3
billion

Hadley Centre
Summer 2003:
normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s

observations
European Medium-High emissions (modelled)
summer
temperatures

2003

Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre

Systems thinking:
one approach to wicked problems
 Positive and negative feedbacks, and interplays among
them, combine to create non-linear and non-intuitive
results
 Systems view: comprehensive problem analysis
 Attempt to avoid erroneously focusing on only one aspect
of the problem
 Define a system as a simplification of reality

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Positive feedback

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Negative feedback

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Modeling cloud feedback

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 Computer models of climate
 Simulations of
weather over long
periods (decades to
centuries)
 Based on physical
forces governing
climate
 Statistics of model’s
behavior are its
“climate”

15 Paul N. Edwards, University of Michigan 25 October 2014

Physical processes simulated in climate models

16 Paul N. Edwards, University of Michigan 25 October 2014

 Today’s climate and Earth system models are
complex systems of coupled submodels

Th
Th ee So ft w a re Arch i t e ct u r
Bubbles are So ft w a re Arch i t e ct u r Ka i t l i n Al e xa n d e r
umalexak@cc.umanitoba.c
Ka i t l i n Ale xa n d e

proportional to
1
Department of Mathem
2 umalexak@cc.umanitoba
Software Engineering
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Department of Mathe
1.2.1 Mo d e l E October 11, 2011 revision 2 Ha d GE
Software Engineering M3Departme
Lab,
ut für Meteorologie, Germany NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA Met Office, UK

number of lines
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titut für Meteorologie, Germany NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA Met Office, UK

of code

GFDL Climate Model 2.1 (coupled to MOM 4.1) IPSL Climate Model 5A
or Atmospheric Research, USA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Fra
3 GFDL Climate Model 2.1 (coupled to MOM 4.1) IPSL Climate Model 5A
for Atmospheric Research, USA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, F

Ke y t o Di a gra m s
stem Climate Model 2.9
oria, Canada Size (tho u
Ke y t o Di a gra m s
System Climate Model 2.9 Each component of the climate system has been assigned a colour:
ctoria, Canada
atmosphere ocean land sea ice land ice sediment Size (tho
COS MOS
Each component of the climate system has been assigned a colour:
atmosphere
Model ocean
code for a component land sea icewith
is represented land ice
a bubble.sediment
Fluxes are Mo deM
COS l E
OS

represented with arrows, in a colour showing where they originated. Ha d M

GEM 3
o de l E
Model code for a component is represented with a bubble. Fluxes are
represented with
Couplers are grey. arrows, in a colour showing where they
Components can pass fluxes either directlyoriginated.
to each CES
Ha M 3
d GEM

17 Paul N. Architecture
Edwards,of University of Michigan 25Meeting,
October 2014 2011).
other or through the coupler.
Couplers are grey. Components can pass fluxes either directly to each GFDL
CES M

Source: KA Alexander and SM Easterbrook, “The Software Global Climate Models” (poster, AGU Fall San Francisco,
other
The areaor
ofthrough
a bubblethe coupler.
represents the size of its code base, relative to other
IP SL
GFDL
components in the same model.
The area of a bubble represents the size of its code base, relative to other UVic
IP SL
A components
smaller bubble in the same
within model.
a larger one represents a small, highly
0 100 2
encapsulated model of a system (eg clouds) that is used by the component. UVic
A smaller bubble within a larger one represents a small, highly Generat
0 100
Integrated assessment modeling

18 Paul N. Edwards, University of Michigan 25 October 2014

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A simple representation of the SRES scenario
main variables

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The Global Systems Simulator

GSS – comparing scenarios

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Modeling wicked problems
 Small groups, working with scenarios, will use the GSS to
explore problems and solutions
 Groups of 6-7, divided into 2 teams, will each explore a
scenario and attempt to reach a sustainability goal
 Discussions:
 Why does the model respond as it does?
 Does it seem realistic? Why or why not?
 What do we learn from modeling wicked problems?

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How much can modeling help us?
 Formalizing wicked problems: limits of knowledge
 Translating modeled solutions into realistic, acceptable
policy options
 What is missing?
 Acting in the face of uncertainty

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