Foreign Policy of Selected Powers

Foreign Policy of US, China,

Russia, and India.
Think critically!

 Why FP is formulated?

 On what basis FP is formulated?

 Why do we study FP of major powers?

 What is Polarity, Bipolarity, Unipolarity, Multipolarity, and Non-

polarity?

 Which age do we live?

 Foreign Policy Objectives

1. Protection of Nation’s Physical, Political, and Cultural

Identity.

2. Comprising goals which may help in realizing primary

targets.

3. It continue to vary (secondary objectives)

Primacy of US Power: A view

Capability Factors: Economy (GDP)

 US 17.41 Trillion
 China 10.35 Trillion
 Japan 4.77 Trillion
 Germany 3.8 Trillion
 France 2.8 Trillion
 India 2.04 Trillion
 Russia 2.05 Trillion
 EU 18.04 Trillion
Per Capita Income of the major powers

 USA 55,904 US$

 Russia 8, 447 US$

 China 8, 280 US$

Military Expenditure in Bil. US$

 USA 711 in 2011

 668 in 2012
 549 in 2013
 536 in 2014
 590 - 610 in 2016
 China 190 - 216 (2016)
 Russia 84.5 (2016)
 Saudi Arabia 87 (2015), UK 62, France 62, Japan 59,
India 46, Germany 35.
Cultural Power/Soft power

 Films / IT
 Media
 Democracy
 Human Rights
 Women rights
 Liberty
 Free Speech, etc.
 Nutshell, American Dream
 Is unipolarity stabilizing?

 Over all world is peaceful – no hegemonic competition?

 Security competition?

 Cost of balancing is too high?

 US has means and motive to use?

 Any rival who has the will and resources to topple US from
ascendancy?
US F.P Objectives
1. Safeguard territorial Integrity

2. Protection of citizen from within and outside

3. Maintain links with other members of Int System, to adopt

policy of conflict and cooperation towards with the view to
promote its own interest.

4. To promote self interest, self preservation, security, well being

of citizens.
US FP determinants

1. Geography
2. Cultural history
3. Social Structure (Wealth, Division, Religion)
4. Public Mood
5. Technology
6. National Capacity (Military Capability, technological
advancement, and economic development).
 Defining US national Interests 4Ps

 Power: Military, Economy, diplomacy, and Alliances.

 Peace: Its about interests, through institutionalization, UNO,
IMF, WB, IAEA, for World Order.
 Prosperity: Global Capitalism, economic interest is a driving
force for building US foreign Policy goals.
 Principles: Values, Ideas, Beliefs US stands for. American
exceptionalism, spreading democracy.
 Prior to WWII it was idealist state – after WWII
realism became its ideology.
 USA married Principle + Power, Rice.
 This provides basis for Bush doctrine, Pre-
emption.
 In case of Russia and China there is common
interest but no common ideology.
 US and India value based relation- democracy.
 Supports Diplomacy and
development/progress.

 There is a need to elevate the diplomacy

along with defence, e.g. after exhausting
all military options in Afghanistan, Iraq,
and Middle East.

 Civilian power must be strengthened.

 US Foreign Policy Structure and process

1 President
 Com in Chief, most powerful actor, authority for declaring wars,
central to FP making.
2 National Security Council
 Principle forum for FP and security issues with advisors and cabinet
members.
 Function is to advise & assist the President on national security and
foreign policies.
 Coordinate & Implement FP.
 Proposes legislation, negotiation of the int. agreements, nomination of
FP officials and statement of policy.
 US Foreign Policy Structure and process
3 Congress.
 Influences, shapes and occasionally even determine foreign
policy (congress LoN, Senate Kyoto protocol)
 Goals – check & balance on executive authority
 Sanctions / Foreign Aid / Human Rights.
 Congress & President have four type of relationship pattern;
 Cooperation – Constructive compromises – institutional
competition – Confrontation, e.g.??
 FP Making Process in US

Involved offices are;

 State Department and Department of Defense (DOD)are
the core of FP making.

 On the issues of Security of State, state department

advises President.

 Secretary of defense, Chairman Joint Chiefs of staff

advise president on national security.
 FP Making Process in US.

 DOD Quadrennial Defense Review is issued by DOD

 That analyses strategic objectives and future potential military
threats and asks the government to form policies to counter.
2014 review builds on the following basis;
 Protect the Home land: Deter defeat attack on US.
 Build Security Globally: regional stability, deter adversaries, build
alliances, and support partners.
 Project Power and Win decisively: defeat aggression, destroy and
disrupt terrorist networks humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief.
 Enduring Leadership in Dynamic World: US is strongest when
leads the world.
 FP Making Process in US
 Dynamic partnership to engage governments for the global
challenges.
 To confront common issues, climate change, poverty, arms
proliferation, WMDs etc.
 Intelligence Agencies/community: CIA has an important role in
FP making process
4 Interest Groups: Lobbyists, MNCs, MIC, NGOs (Freedom
House, Rockefeller foundation, Free society of Soros).
5 Media: CNN, CNBC, ABC, Fox News, Time, Newsweek,
Washington Post, Ney York Times, and Wall Street.
 Instruments of FP

 Global Influence: Military Power

“We will continue to be a military nation if we are to maintain
leadership among others,” Truman 1945.
 Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan all supported
this notion of using power for leadership.
“As we seek peace, we must also remain strong. The purpose of
our military might is not to pressure a weak Soviet economy or
to seek military superiority. It is to deter war. It is to defend
ourselves and our allies,” Bush Sr. May 12, 1989.
Instruments of FP
 Covert Activities

 Foreign Aid

 Sanctions

 Smart Power
US FP in Asia Pacific Region

“The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not in

Afghanistan or Iraq, and the US will be right at the centre of the
action,” H. Clinton (2011)

“We are going to shift 60% naval fire power to Asia Pacific by
2020,” Leon Panetta.

 Constructing a sense of Justification for troops withdrawal

from Afghanistan, ME, for Asia Pacific.
 Strengthening Alliances: Europe to Asia.
 US FP for Muslim World

Engaging Muslim World

 9/11, US relations with Muslim world strained
especially after 2003.
 Obama’s vision of change and engaging Muslim World
– Cairo Speech, based upon mutual respect and
mutual interest.
 There are common grounds between Muslim and West
– Justice, Progress, tolerance, and dignity of human.
 Obama’s Middle East Policy

Three Strategic Objectives;

1. Access to Energy/Energy Security
2. Prevention of WMD’s proliferation
3. Anti US terrorism/dismantling Terrorist Networks

“We will ensure the threat free flow of energy from the region to
the world,” Obama – 2013
 Obama’s Middle East Policy

4 Ds Policy Towards Middle East

1. Disengagement – Syria, Iraq

2. Drone – Yemen
3. Democracy
4. Diplomacy – Cairo Speech
Drivers of the Middle East Policy

 Turmoil in the region,

 Arab Israel relations ….role of US as stabilizer,
 Change in regimes,
 Oil,
 Threat to friends – Israel, KSA,
 Iranian Nuclear Ambitions.
 Drivers of the Middle East Policy
 Sectarianism

 Turkey Egypt and Israel confrontation??

 Rise of ISIS,

 Syrian instability,

 Iraqi Fragility.
Why did Obama administration not act in Syria?
 Disengagement Policy,
 Above all Obama did not have the heart to go for military
engagement,
 Afghanistan and Iraq war mistakes,
 Financial constraints,
 Congress was not willing ,
 Britain was not ready as do other European allies,
 Asia Pacific Pivot Policy – already drawing from
Afghanistan and Iraq to construct justification.
 US FP to South Asia
 To maintain Alliance with Partners – India
 Stabilize Afghanistan
 Friendly relations With Pakistan
 Economic cooperation with regional Countries
 Fighting Terrorism and promoting Peace.
 Strengthen counter-insurgency efforts of the respective
countries
 Strengthen democratic institutions.
 Donald Trump’s FP and world
 Economic Nationalism – America First,
 Retrenchment – pulling back,
 More Domestic policy than Foreign Policy,
 Cost Benefit analysis – believes resources better be
used on Americans than allies,
 Revenue = Expenditure,
 Will prefer relations over alliances.
 Doesn’t believe in ‘American Exceptionalism’.
 Donald Trump’s FP and world
 Nicer to Russia.
 China is happy – rule based order.
 Unnerved Japan – free riding on US security umbrella.
 Bashar & SISI will be happy – no human rights issue.
 Hardliners in Israel and Iran will be happy.
 Branded himself as an outsider.
 Traditional politicians have failed.
 Discourages globalization – so does climate change.
Foreign Policy Of China
 Principles of Chines FP

 Mutual Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity,

 Mutual non-aggression,
 Non-interference, into the domestic affairs of the nations,
 Equality and mutual benefits,
 Peaceful coexistence.
 Peaceful Rise and Peaceful Development

 Chinese rise will not be violent, disrupting, disturbing, and

aggressive especially for neighbours.

 Chines future will be benign.

 It can also co-exist with other states.

 Its FP is based on Taoism = Realism

 And Confucius = Ideas

 Capability Factors.

 Natural resources Iron, Coal, but lacks Oil and Gas (ME, CA
and Africa).
 Semi official – a regional power.
 Economy – china has moved from highly centralized economy to
economic liberalization under Deng Xia pen starting from 1980.
 Formidable military power
 2008 59 Billion US$
 2010 120 Billion US$
 2013/14 (143 – 180) Billion US$ now in 2016 216 Billion
US$.
 Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.

 There is a need for domestic economic reforms for opening up to the world.

 Friendly relations with neighbours.

 Restructuring of economy.

 Social problems – challenge economic + social in Tibet, Xin Xiang, and

Taiwan.

 Japan did not accept the rise of China – remilitarization to balance china.
 Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.
 China complains that institutes are made and played by West –
AIIB.

 Chinese FP conduct has changed under president XI from

modest restraint to activism.

 Under Xi China supports – restructuring of Int. Institutions.

 Xi wants to lift economy for a better FP.

 Considerations in Chinese FP on Global Scale.

 China wants to cooperate with TPP not to the US suiting.

 Xi’s vision is “ASIAN COMMUNITY”, and “ASIAN
SECURITY”.
 Rather it wants to extend its relation with EUROPE with
EUROASIAN policy (XI’s visit to UK).
 China has 6 corridors policy – one belt one road.
 China has started flexing muscles – ‘China’s Pivot to Asia’
Bangladesh, Philippine, and Malaysia.
 China India Relations

 Competition and cooperation in political military and social

spheres. (80 Billion US$ Trade)
 Largely they have cooperated at global level - BRICs, SCO,
etc.
 Both support reforms in international economic order and
institutions.
 Both are members on climate change forums and frameworks
like UNFCCC etc.
 Also support counter terrorism efforts as a common interest.
(but all these are at global level)
 China India Relations
 At regional level- there is rivalry between two.
 India rejects Chinese regional hegemony – since 1962 war.
 India accuses china for doing too much to Pakistan – military,
security, and now economy CPEC.
 China exports hi-tech products and imports raw material.
 UNSC seat – china does not support because Pak doesn’t want.
 IOR – 50% Chinese trade and India thinks it is there area of
influence
 China sees India as lynchpin of USA (rebalancing strategy).
 China India Relations
 China does not want confrontation in the region.
 India accuses china of double standards, CPEC & South
China Sea disputes….discussion ??
 Gwadar is not a Naval Base but a commercial sea port – India
should not worry, says China.
 Modi recently visited ASEAN countries and Japan to
enhance defense and economic relations – China centric and
IOR specific.
 Japan and China – investments in Indian infrastructure –
china 20 Billion US$ and now Japan 35 Billion US$.
 China relations with Pak

 Chinese concerned about the integrity o Pakistan in 2008-9, and now

stability.
 Before strategic and military relations only.
 Now economic and cultural relations as well.
 CPEC is a 46$ billion worth project 35 investment and 11 US$ loan.
 33 Bil. in energy, and it will be a game changer by changing the
regional patterns of production.
 From Punjab to the other provinces, this will help increase the
internal cohesion.
 11Bil. in communication infrastructure.
 0.66 for Gwadar development and expansion.
 China relations with Pakistan
 Create jobs for Balochistan and strengthen country.
 Attract FDI, regional connectivity, India to Afghanistan and
CA, creating regional stability.
 India is jealous because CPEC is a cultural, economic,
political, and social project based on networks of roads,
industrial zones, energy infrastructure etc.
 Pakistan should improve its efficiency and governance
capacity and it is required to cooperate in the region and
beyond.
 China Sri Lanka relations

 Under Mahindra Rajapakse – relations were good.

 China invested in power generation, seaports, roads
infrastructure and most importantly helped crush LTTE
rebellion.
 But after him – relations is at the lowest ebb, from SL not
from China.
 Because domestic politics changed – china always invested in
men not in people in SL. an accusation.
 Mass media change the perception of the people about china.
 China with Afghanistan

 China is committed to stabilize Afghanistan with

International Community.
 After US withdrawal instable Afghanistan will be a threat to
China Russia and the region.
 It support Afghan-led-Afghan-owned peace process.
 To keep India out there is also a Quadrilateral mechanism
China – Pakistan – Afghanistan - Taliban.
 China wants stabilized Afghanistan because of possible
radicalism to Xing Xiang and it investments in Afghanistan.
 China’s Relations with Russia
 Strong Sino-Russian Relations.
 Xi – first trip as president to Russia highlights the importance.
 “We must respect right of each country to choose the path of
development,” XI
 Both United on Syrian Issue.
 400 US$ energy deal in 2014 for 30 years.
 Major country in OBOR initiative of China.
 BRICs + SCO members.
 Both supports multilateralism and restructuring of int. institutions
on global level.
Priorities in XI’s Foreign Policy
1. Socialism as core value…

2. Abstain in UNSC

3. Chinese dream Vs. American dream

4. National Security Commission

5. Pre-emptive security (Hard line south China Sea)

Priorities in XI’s Foreign Policy
1. Financial restructuring, BRICS, AIIB etc.

2. OBOR

3. To cooperate with neighbours – they will become dependent.

4. Infrastructural diplomacy.

5. Asian Security for Asian community.

Russian Foreign Policy
 Overview of Russian FP
 In Russia there is mix trend of socialist and capitalist policies.
 Primarily based on Territorial integrity.
 Exercising strong influence in the region , CA, Eastern
Europe, NATO expansion towards eastward. Ukraine,
Georgia, Crimea, now Syria.
 CSTO is against NATO and USA.
 Russia is continuing its economic and political growth.
 Involved in multilateral org. APEC, SCO, BRICS, G8, IMF,
Paris Clun ICC, IAEA, NSG.
 SCO is a geopolitical tool for balancing USA + NATO.
 Russian Resurgence
 Putin as strong Leader. Yeltsin VS Putin
 After 2003, under Putin …
 2nd Largest coal reserves
 Petro-economy
 Allocated 30 Bil. US$ for pipelines modernization
 Priority is in near abroad, CA, Eastern Europe, JAPAN, China,
Korea
 With US Pivot strategy Russia is also looking for its eastward
strategy.
 Russia in Middle East

Russia achieved four Objective in Syria

 1- Filled vacuum created by USA, as USA did not side with

any party Assad or ISIS.
 2 – Ended its own isolation at regional and global level.
 3 – Acquired leverage in Post Assad Syria.
 4 – Weakened EU and Arab Monarch, strengthened Iran.
 5 – Denied victory to US plans of regime change in Syria.
 Russian FP Concept 2013

 Recognise power shift from Europe to Asia – West to East, Asia

Pacific + India+ China.

 Asia centric in point of interests, specific emphasis on Ukraine +

Closer interaction with BRICs.

 Emphasis on soft power, diversification of economy,

 Challenging West in Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan with Hybrid

warfare.
 Challenges Russia FP faces
 Economic modernization
 Diversification from Hydrocarbon and Arms to Hi-Tech and
other sectors.
 NATO’s eastward expansion.
 Social reforms, openness to the world.
 Rising China in the neighbourhood.
 Declining population growth and Threat of Islamization in CA.
 Internal political unrest, Corruption of govt. officials.
 Rebuilding infrastructure.
Indian Foreign Policy
 Indian Foreign Policy under Modi Govt.

Indian Strategic Priorities;

 Prioritizing an integrated neighbourhood; “Neighbourhood
First.”
 Leveraging international partnerships to promote India’s
domestic development.
 Ensuring a stable and multipolar balance of power in the Indo-
Pacific; “Act East.”
 Dissuading Pakistan from supporting terrorism.
 Advancing Indian representation and leadership on matters of
global governance.
 Indian Foreign Policy Objectives;
1- Neighbourhood First: Improving connectivity, mitigating
nationalism.
 Diplomatic and Political priorities to neighbours and IOR
countries.
 Support neighbours with resources, equipment, and training.
 Greater connectivity and integration, so as to improve the free flow
of goods, people, energy, capital, and information.
 Promote a model of India-led regionalism with which its neighbours
are comfortable.
But
(a negative ideological transformation is feared in India)
2- Bridging diplomacy and development.
 International partnerships to advance India’s domestic
development.
 Improving technological access, sourcing capital, gaining
market access, and securing natural resources.
 US-India Nuclear deal.
 Japan’s investment in high-speed rail line.
 Chinese investments in infrastructure building.
3- Acting East as China rises.
 Modi replaced ‘Look East’ policy with ‘Act East,’ - to show
greater intent.
 China’s rise and the upsetting of Asia’s delicate balance of
power.
a)Risk of Chinese assertiveness on the disputed border,
b)Possibility of Chinese primacy in the Indo-Pacific region,
c)Uneven economic playing field.
4- Pakistan: Engagement and isolation.
 Pakistan’s relative importance for India has waned significantly over the
past two years.

 Trade b/w Indo-Pak is almost non-existent.

 Kashmir Issue – a nuclear flashpoint.

 India tried to dissuade China from CPEC.

 India trying to isolate Pakistan internationally.

 5- India as a leading power: Raising ambitions.
 Economy and clout is on the rise.

 Wishes to be part of all global forums – UNSC, G20, BRICS.

 USA will help India become a great power.

 Question to Attempt

 US invasion of Iraq resulted in sectarianism, Irani expansionism,

Iraqi devastation, and above all disturbed the regional balance of
the power, how true is this statement?
 What should be the Foreign Policy priorities of US in Europe
after Brexit, and Asia?
 The contours of the world politics in 21st century will be shaped
by US-China relations, discuss.
 Do you see Sino-Russian partnership in the future given the
developments in Pacific and ME regions?
 Why is Turkey coming closer to Russia and distancing from US?