UNDERSTANDING RISK AND

RISK REDUCTION

Dr. Walter Hays,

Global Alliance For
Disaster Reduction
 APPLYING WHAT WE KNOW
INNOVATIVELY AND
STRATEGICALLY TO ACHIEVE
SOCIETAL SUSTAINABILITY

A FRAMEWORK FOR LIVING WITH

THE INSTABILITIES CAUSED BY
THE ONSET OF ENVIRONMENTAL
EXTREMES
OUR WORLD IS AT RISK
 FLOODS
 SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
 EARTHQUAKES
 TSUNAMIS
 DROUGHTS
 VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
 LANDSLIDES
 WILDFIRES
 ANNUAL
ANNUAL FREQUENCY
FREQUENCY
 100,000
100,000 THUNDERSTORMS
THUNDERSTORMS
 10,000
10,000 FLOODS
FLOODS
 THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS OF OF MODERATE
MODERATE TOTO LARGE-
LARGE-
VOLUME
VOLUME LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
 THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS OF OF WILDFIRES
WILDFIRES
 100
100 DAMAGING
DAMAGING SIZE
SIZE EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES
 SCORES
SCORES TOTO HUNDREDS
HUNDREDS OFOF SEVERE
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS
 ABOUT
ABOUT TEN
TEN VOLCANIC
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,
ERUPTIONS,
TSUNAMIS,
TSUNAMIS, AND
AND DROUGHTS
DROUGHTS
EVERY COMMUNITY IS AT RISK
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS,
WHICH CREATES AN URGENT
NEED FOR PUBLIC POLICIES
AND STRATEGIC PLANS TO
PREVENT, MITIGATE, AND
PREPARE FOR THE INEVITABLE
 RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCEPTABLE RISK
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY RISK
•VULNERABILITY UNACCEPTABLE RISK
•LOCATION

DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
DATA
DATA BASES
BASES COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY
AND
AND INFORMATION
INFORMATION

POLICY OPTIONS

HAZARDS:
•PREVENTION-MITIGATION
GROUND SHAKING •PREPAREDNESS
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
TECTONIC DEFORMATION •RECOVERY
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS •ADAPTATION
ALL
ALL PUBLIC
PUBLIC POLICIES
POLICIES SHOULD
SHOULD
BE
BE BASED
BASED ON
ON AN
AN
UNDERSTANDING
UNDERSTANDING OFOF WHAT
WHAT CAN
CAN
HAPPEN
HAPPEN AND
AND AN
AN
IMPLEMENTATION
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
PLAN TO
TO
KEEP
KEEP IT
IT FROM
FROM HAPPENING
HAPPENING..
 THE
THE VISION
VISION
IS
IS
SUSTAINABLE
SUSTAINABLE URBAN
URBAN
DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT AND AND QUALITY
QUALITY
OF
OF LIFE
LIFE
IN
IN EVERY
EVERY COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY
ELEMENTS
ELEMENTS OF
OF RISK
RISK

HAZARDS
HAZARDS EXPOSURE
EXPOSURE

RISK

VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY LOCATION
LOCATION
A DISASTER IMPACTS ALL
SOCIETAL ELEMENTS
 INSTITUTIONALIZATION
INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF
OF
DISASTER
DISASTER REDUCTION
REDUCTION
GOAL:
GOAL: TO
TO FIND
FIND THE
THE COMMON
COMMON AGENDA
AGENDA
(CA)
(CA) OF
OF TECHNICAL
TECHNICAL
AND
AND POLITICAL
POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
SOLUTIONS

TECHNICAL
TECHNICAL POLITICAL
POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS
SOLUTIONS
CA
COMMON
COMMON AGENDA
AGENDA FOR
FOR
DISASTER
DISASTER RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE
 PREVENTION
PREVENTION
(CONTROL
(CONTROL THE
THE
SOURCE)
SOURCE)
 PROTECTION
PROTECTION
(BUILD
(BUILD TO
TO
WITHSTAND)
WITHSTAND)
 LAND-USE
LAND-USE
CONTROL
CONTROL
(AVOIDANCE)
(AVOIDANCE)
COMMON
COMMON AGENDA
AGENDA FOR
FOR
DISASTER
DISASTER RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE
 SITE
SITE MODIFICATION
MODIFICATION
 ALERT/WARNING/
ALERT/WARNING/
MAPS/MONITORING
MAPS/MONITORING
 RESPONSE
RESPONSE TOTO
ALERT/WARNING/
ALERT/WARNING/
MAPS/MONITORING
MAPS/MONITORING
TO
TO MOVE
MOVE PEOPLE
PEOPLE
OUR
OUR OF
OF HARM’S
HARM’S
WAY
WAY
MEDITERRANEAN
MEDITERRANEAN REGION’S
REGION’S
HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 DROUGHTS
DROUGHTS
 LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
 TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMIS
 VOLCANIC
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
DEGRADATION
 SUB-SAHARA
SUB-SAHARA AFRICA’S
AFRICA’S
PROBLEMS
PROBLEMS AND
AND HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 POLITICAL
POLITICAL
INSTABILITY
INSTABILITY
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 DROUGHTS
DROUGHTS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
IMPACTS ON
ON AIR,
AIR,
WATER,
WATER, AND
AND SOIL
SOIL
 ENDANGERED
ENDANGERED
SPECIES
SPECIES
 HEALTH
HEALTH CONCERNS
CONCERNS
EUROPE’S
EUROPE’S HAZARDS
HAZARDS

 FLOODS
FLOODS
 GLOBAL
GLOBAL CHANGE
CHANGE
 SEVERE
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS
 EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES
 ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
DEGRADATION
LATIN
LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
BASIN’S
BASIN’S HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 HURRICANES
HURRICANES
 EARTHQUAKES/
EARTHQUAKES/TSU-
TSU-
NAMIS
NAMIS
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 GLOBAL
GLOBAL CHANGE
CHANGE
 LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
 VOLCANIC
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
IMPACTS
SOUTH
SOUTH AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
BASIN’S
BASIN’S HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 HURRICANES
HURRICANES
 EARTHQUAKES/
EARTHQUAKES/TSU-
TSU-
NAMIS
NAMIS
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 GLOBAL
GLOBAL CHANGE
CHANGE
 LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
 VOLCANIC
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
IMPACTS
PACIFIC
PACIFIC REGION’S
REGION’S HAZARDS
HAZARDS

 SEVERE
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 EARTHQUAKES/
EARTHQUAKES/TSU-
TSU-
NAMIS
NAMIS
 WILDFIRES
WILDFIRES
ASIA’S
ASIA’S HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES
 TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMIS
 CYCLONES/TYPHOONS
CYCLONES/TYPHOONS
 VOLCANIC
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
 LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
 DROUGHTS
DROUGHTS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
DEGRADATION
INDIAN
INDIAN OCEAN
OCEAN AREA’S
AREA’S
HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES
 TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMIS
 CYCLONES/TYPHOONS
CYCLONES/TYPHOONS
 VOLCANIC
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
 LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
 DROUGHTS
DROUGHTS
 ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION
DEGRADATION
INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI: 26
DECEMBER 2004
NORTH
NORTH AMERICA’S
AMERICA’S HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 HURRICANES
HURRICANES
 EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES
 TORNADOES
TORNADOES
 ICE
ICE STORMS
STORMS
 VOLCANIC
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
 LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
EASTERN
EASTERN NORTH
NORTH AMERICA’S
AMERICA’S
HAZARDS
HAZARDS
 FLOODS
FLOODS
 HURRICANES
HURRICANES
 EARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKES
 TORNADOES
TORNADOES
 ICE
ICE STORMS
STORMS
 LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES
INNOVATION GOAL:
DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS

INFORMATION
NETWORKING
EDUCATION CHANNELS
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS

PUBLI
E SE CTOR C SEC
T T OR
PRIVA
COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS

ACADEMIA
Stratec Consulting
 EDUCATION

PERIOD OF WINDOW OF PERIOD OF

INTEGRATION OPPORTUNITY IMPLEMENTATION

HEAR
HEAR

UNDER-
UNDER-
STAND
STAND
PERSON-
PERSON-
ALIZE
ALIZE
ACT
ACT
IDENT-
IDENT-
IFY
IFY
 EMERGING
EMERGING KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE AND
AND
TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY FOR
FOR RISK
RISK
REDUCTION
REDUCTION
 TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI WARNING
WARNING  DISASTER
DISASTER
SYSTEM
SYSTEM SCENARIOS
SCENARIOS
 REAL-TIME
REAL-TIME  HAZARD
HAZARD ZONATION
ZONATION
MONITORING
MONITORING  ACTIVE
ACTIVE AND
AND PASSIVE
PASSIVE
 REMOTE
REMOTE SENSING
SENSING ENERGY
ENERGY DISSIPATION
DISSIPATION
AND
AND MEASURMENT
MEASURMENT DEVICES
DEVICES
TECHNOLOGIES
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
(E.G.,  CASE
CASE HISTORIES
HISTORIES AND
AND
GPS)
GPS) BEST
BEST PRACTICES
PRACTICES
 INFORMATION
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGIES
TECHNOLOGIES
(E.G.,
(E.G., GIS)
GIS)
 REDUCTION OF COMMUNITY
VULERABILTY

RESEARCH
RESEARCH
RISK
RISK
REDUCTION
REDUCTION
•• PREVENTION-
PREVENTION-
MITIGATION
MITIGATION
•• PREPAREDNESS
PREPAREDNESS
TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY •• PREDICTION,
BASE PREDICTION,
BASE WARNING,
WARNING,AND
AND
EVACUATION
EVACUATION
•• ADAPTATION
ADAPTATION
•• EMERGENCY
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE
RESPONSE
POSTDISASTER
POSTDISASTER •• RECOVERY
INVESTIGATIONS RECOVERY
INVESTIGATIONS
•• MONITORING
MONITORING
BENEFIT/COST
BENEFIT/COST OF
OF BECOMING
BECOMING
DISASTER
DISASTER RESILIENT
RESILIENT
PUBLIC
PUBLIC AWARENESS
AWARENESS

ENABLES
ENABLESALLALLSECTORS
SECTORS
OF
OFTHE
THEPUBLIC
PUBLICTO
TO KNOW
KNOW
THEIR
THEIRRISKS
RISKS AND
ANDCOPE
COPE
WITH
WITHTHEM
THEM

11 << BENEFIT/COST
BENEFIT/COST <<
1,000
1,000
BENEFIT/COST
BENEFIT/COST OF
OF BECOMING
BECOMING
DISASTER
DISASTER RESILIENT
RESILIENT
EDUCATION
EDUCATION AND
AND
TRAINING
TRAINING

EXPANDS
EXPANDS
PROFESSIONAL
PROFESSIONAL AND
AND
POLITICAL
POLITICAL CAPACITY
CAPACITY

11 << BENEFIT/COST
BENEFIT/COST <<
100
100
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK

BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN

INUNDATION AND SCOUR

INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

EFFECTS OF WATER ON
FLOODS STRUCTURE & CONTENTS
FLOODS
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES
HEALTH PROBLEMS,
INJURIES, AND DEATH
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

VULNERABILITY OF NON-
STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK
WIND AND WATER
PENETRATE BUILDING
ENVELOPE

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES

WINDOWS

SEVERE STORM SURGE AND HEAVY

SEVERE
PRECIPITATION
WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS
IRREGULARITIES IN
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES ELEVATION AND PLAN

POOR WORKMANSHIP

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
FAULTING )

IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
EARTHQUAKES STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
EARTHQUAKES

FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE

CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES RUNUP AND SEICHE

POOR DETAILING OF
STRUCTURALSYSTEM

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF

INCOMING WAVES

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE

RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE

RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMIS BUILDINGS

FLOODING
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES

NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS

(TEPHRA)

VOLCANIC IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH

VOLCANIC
(AVIATION)
ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES

IN PATH OF LAHARS

IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK

BUILDING ON UNSTABLE
SLOPES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE

TO FALLS

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE

TO TOPPLES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE

LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDES TO SPREADS

SOIL AND ROCK

CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS

EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR GROUND SHAKING
BARE, OVERSTEEPENED
SLOPES
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK

PROLONGED LACK OF
PRECIPITATION

LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE

LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY

DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF
DROUGHTS
DROUGHTS GROUND WATER

LOSS OF VEGETATION
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES

INSECT INFESTATION

PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND

BY DESERTIFICATION
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OFRISK
RISK

LIGHTNING STRIKES

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN-
WILDLANDS INTERFACE

WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED

WILDFIRES
WILDFIRES

DEFORESTATION
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES

DENUDED SLOPES

HOT, DRY WEATHER

 ACTIONS
ACTIONS FOR
FOR TSUNAMI-PRONE
TSUNAMI-PRONE
COUNTRIES
COUNTRIES

TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY
TO IMPROVE TSUNAMI
WARNING CAPABILITY

EDUCATION FOR A TSUNAMI

WARNING SYSTEM

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
TOWARD
TOWARD TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI FOR A TSUNAMI WARNING
DISASTER
DISASTER SYSTEM
RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS FOR
A TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

ONGOING DIALOGUE ON THE

CHALLENGE OF BECOMING
TSUNAMI DISASTER RESILIENT
 KN B OO
OW K
L OF
On - P ED
Sc
ien
ers
pe
G E
An c
e, c t iv
dC Po es
ha lic
ng y,
e