Sharing with Telenor Pakistan

Traffic Forecast Process & Data

Promotion Traffic Forecast Process
Traffic Forecast Process

Actual vs
Device
Calculated
Penetration
normalization
Marketing Minutes
& Data Volume 3G pop coverage
Busy Hour Profile
Forecast 2G pop coverage

Busy Day Profile

Network Traffic Forecast

3G Traffic Forecast
• 3G traffic forecast has additional parameters to be considered:
– 3G device penetration
– 3G pop coverage over 2G pop coverage
• Calculated 3G traffic =Total traffic x 3G device penetration x 3G pop cov
2G pop cov
• The actual 3G voice traffic will be lower than the calculated 3G traffic due to 3G
users may choose not to camp under 3G network even if they have 3G devices.
This may be due to battery life span and initial coverage rollout issues.
• For data volume forecast, it would be good to have the device types breakdown as
the usage is dependent on the phone type used i.e smart phone users have higher
data volume per user than entry type phone users.
– This should be done at the early forecast stage by Marketing and Sales before getting
translated into network forecast.
• Busy hour percentage in 3G may not be the same as 2G as the network is
maturing with coverage rollout. Spotty coverage may only limit the usage to
day/night time only instead of 24 hours
• 3G Hourly Peak traffic = 3G monthly traffic x BH x BD
 3G Traffic Forecast BH Profile
Feb 2014 2G & 3G Voice & Data Hourly Profile Feb 2014 Voice & Data Hourly Profile
9%
10%
9% 8%
8% 7%
7% 6%
6% 5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Feb Data Feb Voice

2G Voice 3G Voice 2G Data 3G Data

• Voice Busy Hour Profile

• 2G Voice BH is higher than 3G with overall Voice BH follows 2G Voice BH as 70% of
voice traffic is still in 2G network.
• 3G Voice hourly profile is better distributed. We are expecting the BH will be the same as
2G BH when 3G voice traffic becomes majority

• Data Busy Hour Profile

• The 2G & 3G data BH is similar.
• Overall Data BH follows 3G Data BH as more than 90% of data traffic is in 3G network

• Busy Day Profile

• Busy Day for 2G &3G traffic is similar with values within 3.5 – 3.8% (<4%)
 3G Traffic – Device Penetration

Jan 2014 Device Per Technology

3G Penetration Forecast
3%2%
70%
61%
3G 60%
53%
EDGE
50% 45%
40% GPRS
33%
2G 40% 3G Penetration
LTE 2600
LTE non-2600 30%

20%

10%
3% 19% 0%
2013 2014 2015
2G 3G Voice Erlangs & 3G Pop Cov/2G Pop Cov
120% 85% 85% 90%

100%
80% • Current 45% 3G device penetration yields
70% 30% voice traffic.
80% 60%
50%
60%
40% • Other factors to be considered are
40% 30% • 3G pop cov/2G pop cov
20%
20% • % of 3G users still using 2G network to
10% make voice calls.
0% 0%
Jan-14 Feb-14

2G Voice Erl 3G Voice Erl 3G pop cov/2G pop cov

Data Promotion Traffic Forecast Process
●
Additional data traffic due to data promotion only not part of OA forecast
Marketing ●
Time of the day ie during BH or non BH
Input ●
Subscribers take up

●
Volume
Network Translation ●
Throughput
●
PDP & SAU

●
Forecast throughput, volume, PDP/SAU
Cross check ●
BH profile
●
End to end network health at radio access, core, transport and IN if it is for prepaid

●
Calculate the impact and advise accordingly to the
Analysis Findings
relevant network domains.