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JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edward’s University
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The Simple Linear Regression Model
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Least Squares Method
min (y i y i ) 2
where:
yi = observed value of the dependent variable
for the ith observation
y^i = estimated value of the dependent variable
for the ith observation
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The Least Squares Method
xi y i ( xi y i ) / n
b1 2 2
xi ( xi ) / n
y-Intercept for the Estimated Regression Equation
_ _
b0 = y - b1x
where:
xi = value of independent variable for ith observation
y_i = value of dependent variable for ith observation
x_ = mean value for independent variable
y = mean value for dependent variable
n = total number of observations
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
Scatter Diagram
30
25
20
Cars Sold
y = 5x + 10
15
10
5
0
0 1 2 3 4
TV Ads
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Coefficient Of Determination
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The Coefficient of Determination
Coefficient of Determination
r2 = SSR/SST
where:
SST = total sum of squares
SSR = sum of squares due to regression
SSE = sum of squares due to error
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
Coefficient of Determination
r2 = SSR/SST = 100/114 = .8772
The regression relationship is very strong since
88% of the variation in number of cars sold can be
explained by the linear relationship between the
number of TV ads and the number of cars sold.
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The Correlation Coefficient
rxy (sign of b1 ) r 2
where:
b1 = the slope of the estimated regression
equation yˆ b0 b1 x
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
rxy (sign of b1 ) r 2
The sign of b1 in the equation yˆ 10 is5“+”.
x
rxy = + .8772
rxy = +.9366
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Model Assumptions
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Testing for Significance
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Testing for Significance
An Estimate of s 2
The mean square error (MSE) provides the estimate
of s 2, and the notation s2 is also used.
s2 = MSE = SSE/(n-2)
where:
SSE ( yi yˆ i ) 2 ( yi b0 b1 xi ) 2
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Testing for Significance
An Estimate of s
• To estimate s we take the square root of s 2.
• The resulting s is called the standard error of the
estimate.
SSE
s MSE
n2
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Testing for Significance: t Test
Hypotheses
H0: 1 = 0
Ha: 1 = 0
Test Statistic
b1
t
sb 1
Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if t < -tor t > t
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
t Test
• Hypotheses H0 : 1 = 0
Ha: 1 = 0
• Rejection Rule
For = .05 and d.f. = 3, t.025 = 3.182
Reject H0 if t > 3.182
• Test Statistics
t = 5/1.08 = 4.63
• Conclusions
Reject H0
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Confidence Interval for 1
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Confidence Interval for 1
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if 0 is not included in the confidence interval for
1.
95% Confidence Interval for 1
b1 t / 2 sb1
= 5 +/- 3.182(1.08) = 5 +/- 3.44
or 1.56 to 8.44
Conclusion
Reject H0 Karena nilai b1 yg dihipotesakan = 0
berada diluar interval b1
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Testing for Significance: F Test
Hypotheses
H0 : 1 = 0
Ha : 1 = 0
Test Statistic
F = MSR/MSE
Rejection Rule
Reject H0 if F > F
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
F Test
• Hypotheses H0 : 1 = 0
Ha: 1 = 0
• Rejection Rule
For = .05 and d.f. = 1, 3: F.05 = 10.13
Reject H0 if F > 10.13.
• Test Statistic
F = MSR/MSE = 100/4.667 = 21.43
• Conclusion
We can reject H0.
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Using the Estimated Regression Equation
for Estimation and Prediction
Confidence Interval Estimate of E(yp)
y p t /2 s y p
yp + t/2 sind
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
Point Estimation
If 3 TV ads are run prior to a sale, we expect the mean
number of cars sold to be:
y^ = 10 + 5(3) = 25 cars
Confidence Interval for E(yp)
95% confidence interval estimate of the mean number
of cars sold when 3 TV ads are run is:
25 + 4.61 = 20.39 to 29.61 cars
Prediction Interval for yp
95% prediction interval estimate of the number of
cars sold in one particular week when 3 TV ads are
run is: 25 + 8.28 = 16.72 to 33.28 cars
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Residual Analysis
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
Residuals
Observation Predicted Cars Sold Residuals
1 15 -1
2 25 -1
3 20 -2
4 15 2
5 25 2
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Example: Reed Auto Sales
Residual Plot
1
0
-1
-2
-3
0 1 2 3 4
TV Ads
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Residual Analysis
Detecting Outliers
• An outlier is an observation that is unusual in
comparison with the other data.
• Minitab classifies an observation as an outlier if its
standardized residual value is < -2 or > +2.
• This standardized residual rule sometimes fails to
identify an unusually large observation as being
an outlier.
• This rule’s shortcoming can be circumvented by
using studentized deleted residuals.
• The |i th studentized deleted residual| will be
larger than the |i th standardized residual|.
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Praktek SPSS
Data from a sample of 5 previous sales are shown
below.
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Langkah
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End of Chapter 14
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