GROUP 2

CONFIRMATION BIAS
AVAILABILITY BIAS
REPRESENTATION BIAS
FRAMING BIAS
 CONFIRMATION BIAS

 Confirmation bias is a type of cognitive bias and represents an

error of inductive inference, or as a form of selection bias toward
confirmation of the hypothesis under study or disconfirmation of
an alternative hypothesis.

Similar To:
◦ Belief Bias
◦ Belief Preservation
◦ Biased Assimilation
◦ Belief Overkill
◦ Hypothesis Killing
◦ Polarization Effect
◦ Positive Bias
◦ Tolstoy Syndrome

2 4 6 PROBLEM
Put forth by PETER CATHCART WASON(1960)
 Simple ascending order sequence
 But subjects made it more complex and tried to add reasons to it.

TOLSTOY QUOTE:
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted
man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the
simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he
is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of
doubt, what is laid before him.”
 EXAMPLE
 Madrid bombing on march 11th,2004
 FBI misidentified Brandon Mayfield’s Finger prints, a lawyer from Portland, Oregon. Later it was
discovered to be an Algerian terrorist.
 Biases in this case:
 The first examiner made up his mind and didn’t think, things could be different the re-examination
 The second examiner thought why should he check the first one’s examination is right
 Some attributed it to the badly maintained laboratory conditions.

After the MAYFIELD case, several British researchers led by Itiel E.Dror devised this
experiment(this sample didn’t include the bomber).
 Several finger print examiners were asked by colleagues to match crime scene and suspect print
 Actually they were given the fingerprints of people they already analyzed, but they didn’t know
that
 The experimenter just hinted saying that the FBI had erroneously mismatched and it was the
Algerian bomber’s fingerprints
 Their were three results to this:
1. Only one person went and rechecked.
2. One said its insufficient data and nothing can be deduced
3. The majority contradicted their earlier statements and agreed it is the Algerian bomber’s.
 AVAILABILITY BIAS
 Availability bias causes people to base their decisions on the
most recent and meaningful events. The brain views ancient
history as anything that happened more than a couple of
years ago.
 Cases of Availability Bias:

◦ Availability bias causes investors to over-react to market conditions

whether it be "positive" or "negative“.
◦ Availability bias also causes people to think that events that receive
heavy media attention are more important and pertinent than they
are in actuality.
◦ It is ironic that the greatest stock bubble coincided with the greatest
amount of information available.
 AVOIDING AVAILABILITY BIAS
 Focus on long-term results and avoid getting swept away by
your emotions and the latest mania whether it be positive
or negative.

 Simply refuse to let events overly influence you.

 REPRESENTATION BIAS
 Representativeness Bias: A cognitive strategy for quickly estimating
the probability that a given instance is a member of a particular
category. We use it to judge the likelihood that something or
someone belongs to a specific category.
The representativeness bias may be caused when:

 Our initial prototypes or stereotypes are inaccurate or incomplete.

 We fail to take into account relevant statistical information (such as

base rates, sample size, chance probability).

 We neglect the effects of sample size. (Small sample size increases

the probability that your estimate will be inaccurate.)
 EXAMPLE

 People will often assume that a random sequence in a

lottery is more likely than a arithmetic sequence of
numbers.
 Adam is a shy and quiet individual. He loves reading,

watercolor painting and listening to classical music.

Give some thought to what sort of occupation Adam
has.
 TAXICAB PROBLEM
 A cab was involved in a hit and run accident at night. Two cab
companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. 85% of the
cabs in the city are Green and 15% are Blue.
 A witness identified the cab as Blue. The court tested the reliability

of the witness under the same circumstances that existed on the

night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly
identified each one of the two colors 80% of the time and failed 20%
of the time.
 What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was

Blue rather than Green knowing that this witness identified it as

Blue?"
 Most subjects gave probabilities over 50%, and some gave answers

over 80%. The correct answer, found using Bayes' theorem, is much
lower than these estimates.
 FRAMING BIAS
 The frame of the problem that biases our reasoning
which causes us to make poor decisions is called the
framing bias.

 Examples:
Story of smoke in prayer room “Can I smoke” Vs “In
moments of human weakness when I smoke, may I also
pray?’’

"1-in-10 chance of succeeding“ Vs "90% chance of

failing."
 AVOIDING FRAMING BIAS

 Ask yourself if you are working on the real problem.

 To promote objective reasoning, avoid framing

alternatives with value-laden terminology.

 Look at the problem from other perspectives. For

example, reverse the context. If you are the seller,

how would you see things if you were the buyer?
 Watch out for leading questions—questions or

phrasing designed to create a frame intended to

elicit a particular response.
THANK YOU