1

Move at most two coins to arrange vertical or horizontal 2 lines of 4 coin each
 History of PROBABILITY
(Read for information only)

A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of probability by two famous

French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat.

A well known French gambler, Chevalier de Méré, with an interest in gaming and gambling questions,

called Pascal's attention to an apparent contradiction concerning a popular dice game.

The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not to bet

even money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws. A seemingly well-

established gambling rule led de Méré to believe that betting on a double six in 24 throws would be

profitable, but his own calculations indicated just the opposite.

3
 History of PROBABILITY
(Read for information only)

Throughout the 18th century, the application of probability moved from games of chance

to scientific problems:

• Mathematical theory of life insurance - life tables.

• Biological problems - what is the probability of being born female or male?

4
Probability

is the chance that something will happen. The words such as chance, likelihood, possibility

and proportions have similar meanings as probability. Probability is a quantitative measure

of uncertainty, which is quite commonly used, in statistical inferences

Random Experiment:
Any process whose result cannot be predicted with certainty.

outcome
is a possible result of a probability experiment

5
sample space:
A list of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Experiment: Tossing of single coin S={H,T} n(S)=2
Experiment: Tossing of two coins S={HH, HT, TH,TT} n(S)=4

Experiment: Tossing of three coins S={HHH, HHT ,HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Experiment: Throwing of single dice S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Experiment: Throwing of two dice  (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) 
 
 ( 2,1) ( 2,2) ( 2,3) ( 2,4) ( 2,5) ( 2,6) 
 (3,1) (3, 2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 
S  
 ( 4,1) ( 4,2) ( 4,3) ( 4,4) ( 4,5) ( 4,6) 
 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 
 
 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6, 4) (6,5) (6,6) 
 

Experiment: Tossing of a coin and S={H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6

throwing of a dice
T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6} 6
Experiment: Selecting card from 52 playing cards Black Red
Spade Clubs Diamond Hearts

♣ ♠ ♦ ♥
A A A A
K K K K
Q Q Q Q
J J J J
10 10 10 10
9 9 9 9
8 8 8 8
7 7 7 7
6 6 6 6
5 5 5 5
4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2
7
Event:
Any collection of outcomes from a probability experiment i.e
A sub set of a sample space. Events are represented by A, B, C etc

8
Simple Event:- An event that contains only one sample point

For example, in tossing of two coins simple event may be two heads
A=Two heads
A={HH} n(A)=1

Compound Event:- An event that contains more than one sample points

For example, in tossing of two coins compound event may be at least one head
A=At least one head
A={HH, HT, TH} n(A)=3

9
Probability
Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Sure

0 0.5 1
0% 50% 100%

½
Formula :
n( A)
P ( A) =
n( S )
10
 Example:-A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that
S={HHH, HHT ,HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
n( A) 7
(i) At most two head appears P ( A) =
n( S )
=
8
n( A) 7
(ii) At least one tail appears P ( A) =
n( S )
=
8

n( A) 3
(iii) Exactly two head appears. P ( A) = =
n( S ) 8
n( A) 0
(iv) Four heads appear P ( A) = = =0
n( S ) 8

n( A) 4
(v) More heads than tails P ( A) = =
n( S ) 8
n( A) 0
P( A) = = =0
(vi) Equal number of heads and tails n( S ) 8 11
Distribution of 52 playing cards, of 4 suits with 13 cars in each suit
Black Red
Example:-If a card is selected from an ordinary
Spade Clubs Diamond Hearts
deck of 52 playing cards, find the probability that
♣ ♠ ♦ ♥ 26
=
A A A A (i):- The card is a red card 52
K K K K 12
=
Q Q Q Q 52
J J J J (ii):-The card is a face card
13
10 10 10 10 =
9 9 9 9 (iii):- The card is a club 52
8 8 8 8 36
7 7 7 7 =
6 6 6 6 (iv):-The card is a number card. 52

5 5 5 5
4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2
12
Picture cards

13
  (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) 
 
 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6) 
 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 
Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, S   
what is the probability of getting  (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) 
 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 

 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) 

1
=
(i) a double six 36
15
(ii) sum of the dots are 8 or more =
36
18
(iii) sum of the dots is even =
36
6
(iv) a doublet =
36
15
(v) product of the numbers on the dice is divisible by 4 =
36 14
  (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) 
 
 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6) 
 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 
Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, S   
what is the probability of getting  (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) 
 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 

 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) 

4
=
(i)The difference between two numbers is 4 36
12
(ii)Numbers on the two dice differ by more than 2 =
36
6
(iii)I number is greater than 2 number by more than 2
st nd =
36
6
=
(iv)Two numbers are alike 36
9
=
(v)Odd numbers on both dice 36 15
How many students are girls or wear glasses 3 + 2 – 1=4

How many students are girls and wear glasses =1

16
  (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) 
 
 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6) 
 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 
S  
 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) 
 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 

 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) 


18 + 18 - 9 27
( Vi)Even on I
st
or sum is even =
36
=
36
6 + 18 - 3 21
(Vii) Number 2 on Ist or sum is odd =
36
=
36
3
(Viii) Number 2 on I and sum is odd
st =
36
17
Example:- The employees of a certain company have elected five of their number to represent them on the employee-
management productivity council Profile of the five are as follows:

Gender Male Male Female Female Male

Age(Years) 30 32 45 20 40

This group decides to elect a spokesperson by drawing a name from a hat. What is the
probability that the spokesperson will be either female or over 35?

2 + 2- 1 3
P(Female or Over 35) = 5
=
5

18
 Example:- If a student is selected at random then find the probability that
Weight / Age 10------20 21---------25 26--------30 31--------35 TOTAL

50------60 20 28 36 35 119
61------65 30 36 39 20 125
66------70 35 36 40 45 156
TOTAL
85 100 115 100 400
=
a) The student has age less than or equal to 30 400

=
b) The student has age 21 to 25 or has weight 66 to 70 400

=
c) The student has age 26 or greater 400

=
d) The student has age 10 to 20 and has weight 61 to 65 400

=
400
e) The student has age 10 to 20 or 26-30 or has weight 66 to 70 19
 A U B =A+B-AႶB A U B =A+B

Not Mutually Exclusive Mutually Exclusive

Addition Theorem of Probability
If A and B are any two events then
P ( A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) (Not mutually exclusive events) OR
P ( A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) (Not mutually exclusive events)
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) (as P(A  B)=0 for Mutually exclusive events) 20
 Mutually Exclusive Events:
Events are said to be ‘mutually exclusive’ if the occurrence of an event totally prevents
occurrence of all other events in a trial. In other words, two events A and B cannot occur
simultaneously.
Equally likely or Equi-probable Events:
Outcomes are said to be ‘equally likely’ if there is no reason to expect one outcome to
occur in preference to another. i.e., among all exhaustive outcomes, each of them has
equal chance of occurrence
Exhaustive Events:
Events are said to be exhaustive it they constitute the sample space

21
 Example:- The employees of a certain company have elected five of their number to represent them on the
employee-management productivity council Profile of the five are as follows:

This group decides to elect a spokesperson by

Gender Male Male Female Female Male drawing a name from a hat. What is the probability
Age(Years) 30 32 45 20 40
that the spokesperson will be either female or

over 35?
2 + 2- 1 3 Addition Theorem
P(Female or Over 35) = =
5 5 A=Female B=Over 35
P(A)=2/5 P(B)=2/5
P(A  B)=1/5

2 2 1 2 + 2- 1 3
P( A È B) = + - = =
5 5 5 5 5 22
Example:- The probability that a student will pass in
Mathematics is 0.6 and that a student will pass in Statistics is
0.4, he will pass in both Mathematics & Statistics is 0.3. If a
student is selected at random what is the probability that he
will pass in Mathematics or Statistics (i.e he will pass in
atleast one subject)
Addition Theorem
A=Pas in Math B=Pass in Stat
P(A)=0.6 P(B)=0.4
P(A  B)=0.3
P ( A È B ) = 0.6 + 0.4 - 0.3 = 0.7 23
Example:- If a number is selected at random from 1 to 100 what is the
probability that selected number is multiple of 3 or 5
Addition Theorem
A=Multiple of 3 B=Multiple of 5
(A  B)=Multiple of 3 and 5 (i.e Multiple of 15)
n(A)=33 n(B)=20
n(A  B)=6
P(A)=33/100=0.33 P(B)=20/100=0.20
P(A  B)=6/100=0.06

P( A È B) = 0.33 + 0.20 - 0.06 = 0.47

24
 Law of Complement
As A and Ac are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events so
A U Ac=S
P(A U Ac)=P(S)
P(A) + P(Ac) = P(S) (addition law for mutually exclusive events)
P(A) + P(Ac)= 1
So

P(A)= 1- P(A ) A c
c
A
25
 Law of Complement
As A and Ac are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events so
P(A) + P(Ac) = P(S) (addition law for mutually exclusive events)
P(A) + P(Ac)= 1
So P(A)= 1- P(Ac)
Example:- Find the probability of obtaining at least one head in tossing 3 coins

Let A=At least One head Ac =No head (All Tails)

c 1
P( A ) =
8
1 7
P ( A) = 1 - =
8 8
26
Some Results:-
(i):- P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( A  B )
c

(ii):- P( B  A )  P( B)  P( A  B)
c

(iii): P ( A  B )  P ( A  B )  1  P ( A  B )
c c c

(iv) P ( A  B )  P ( A  B )  1  P ( A  B )
c c c

27
 ABc = A-AB

c
(i):- P( A  B )  P( A)  P( A  B)(ii):- P( A Ç B) = P( B) - P( A Ç B)
c

28
Example(1):- Let A and B be any two events with P(A  B) =3/4 , P(Ac)=2/3
P(A  B)=1/4.
Then find (i) P(A) (ii) P(B) (iii) P(A  BC) (iv) P(A  B) (v) P(AC  BC)
Solution:- (i) P(A)=1-2/3=1/3
(ii) P(A  B)=P(A)+P(B)- P(A  B) 3/4=1/3+P(B)-1/4 P(B)=2/3
(iii) P(A  BC)= P(A)- P(A  B) 1/3-1/4=1/12
(iv) P(A  B)=P(A)+P(B)- P(A  B) =3/4
3 1
(v) P(A  B )  P( A  B)  1  P( A  B)  1  
c c c

4 4
29
Example:- If A & B are any two events,
A= Pass in QT B=Pass in IT then write expressions to indicate that a student will

(A  Bc)
(1):- Pass in ONLY QT
(A  Bc) or (Ac  B)
(2):- Pass in Only one subject
(A  B)
(3):- Pass in both subjects
(4):- Pass in non of subject (Ac  Bc)= (AUB)c

( A B)
(5):- Pass in at least one subject
(6):- Pass in neither subject (Ac  Bc)= (AUB)c 30
Example:- If a number is selected at random from 1 to 100 what is the probability that selected number is
A= Number is multiple of 3 B= Number is multiple of 5
P(A)=33/100 P(B)=20/100 P(A  B)=6/100

P ( A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)=0.47

i) multiple of either 3 or 5

ii) multiple of neither 3 or 5 c

P( A B) =1- P( A B)=0.53

iii)multiple of neither 3 nor 5 P( Ac Bc)= P( A B)c=1- P( A B)=0.53

iv)multiple of 3 but not 5 P( A  Bc)= P(A) - P(A  B)=0.27

c c 31
P( A  B )+ P( A  B)= P(A) - P(A  B)+ P(B) - P(A  B) =0.41
 Conditional Probability
The sample space for an experiment must often be changed when some
additional information pertaining to the outcome of the experiment is received.
The effect of such information is to reduce the sample space by excluding
some outcomes as being impossible which before receiving the information
were believed possible. The probability associated with such a reduced sample
space is called conditional probability
Suppose A and B are two events, then the probability that event A occurs given
that event B has occurred is called a conditional probability and denoted by
P(A|B) . 32
 Methods for calculating Conditional Probability
a):-Calculate conditional probability directly from reduced sample space:-
In this method first the sample space is reduced by using given information
(One event has occurred) and then the probability of another event is
calculated directly from reduced sample space. Such calculation of probability
is called conditional probability

33
Example:- Two coins are tossed. What is the probability that two heads results,
given that there is at least one head.
Let A=Two head B=At least one head

S={HH, HT ,TH, TT}

By using the given information (At least one head) the reduced sample space is

S*={HH, HT ,TH}
n( A) 1
P( A | B) = =
n(S*) 3
34
 Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability that
(i) The sum of the dice will be 7, given that the sum is greater than 6
(ii) The sum of the dice will be 7, given that the two dice had same number
Let A=Sum is 7 B=Sum is at least 6
 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)   (1,6) 
   
 (2,1) ( 2,2) (2,3) ( 2,4) (2,5) (2,6)  By using information  (2,5) (2,6) 
 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 
S    (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 
 (4,1) ( 4,2) (4,3) ( 4,4) (4,5) (4,6)  ( sum is greater than 6) S  
*

 (5,1)  (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) 
(5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)  

 (6,1)
reduced sample space (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 
 (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)  
 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) 


n( A) 6
P( A | B) = =
n(S*) 21
35
 Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability that
(ii) The sum of the dice will be 7, given that the two dice had same number

Let A=Sum is 7 B=Number are same

 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)   (1,1) 
   
 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)  By using information
(2,2)
 
 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)  (both number are same)  
S   (3,3)
 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)  S 
*

 (5,1)  reduced sample space  (4,4) 
 (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)   
 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)   (5,5) 
 
 (6,6) 

n( A) 0
P( A | B) = = =0
n(S*) 6
36
Example:- Supper departmental store has been the target of many shoplifters
during the past month, but owning to increased security precautions, 250
shoplifters have been caught. Each shoplifter’s s gender is noted; also noted
whether first-time or repeat offender. The data are summarized in the table:
(a) The probability that the shoplifter is a first-time offender, given that the shoplifter is male

Gender First-Time Repeat- Total A=Ist Time B=Male

Offender Offender
Gender First-Time Repeat-Offender Total
Male
60 70 130 Offender

Female Male 60 70 130

44 76 120 n( A) 60
P( A | B) = =
Total
n(S*) 130
104 146 250 37
(b) The probability that the shoplifter is female, given that the shoplifter is a repeat offender

A=Female B=Repeat

Gender First-Time Repeat- Total Repeat-

Offender Offender Offender

Male n( A) 76
130 70 P( A | B) = =
60 70 n(S*) 146
Female
44 76 120 76
Total
104 146 250 146 38
b):-Calculate conditional probability by applying conditional probability rule:
P( A  B) P( A Ç B)
P( A / B)  Similarly P( B / A) =
P( B) P ( A)
(a) The probability that the shoplifter is a first-time offender, given that the shoplifter is male

A=Ist Time B=Male

Gender First-Time Repeat- Total n( B) 130 n( A I B) 60
P( B) = = P( A I B) = =
Offender Offender n( S ) 250 n( S ) 250

Male
60 70 130
Female 60
44 76 120 250 60
P( A | B) = =
130 130
Total
104 146 250 250
39
 Example:- During a study of auto accident, the highway safety council found
that 60 percent of all accident occur at night, 52 percent are alcohol-related,
and 37% percent occur at night are alcohol-related. Find the probability that
(a) An accident was alcohol-related, given that it occurred at night

A=Alcohol B=Night
0.37
P(A)=0.52 P(B)=0.60 P( A | B) = = 0.62
0.60
P(A Ⴖ B)=0.37

(b) An accident occurred at night, given that it was alcohol-related,

0.37
P(B | A) = = 0.71
0.52
40
Law of Multiplication
If A and B are any two events, then the probability both A and B occur is given by
P (A  B)= P(A) P(B/A) OR P(B) P(A/B)
Here P (A  B) means the probability of joint occurrence of events A and B.
Independent Events:
The two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect
the probability of occurrence of the other event. i.e P(A | B)=P(A)
Two events are said to be independent if P(A  B) = P(A) x P(B);
otherwise they will not be independent.

Results:-If A & B are two independent events then

A & Bc , Ac& B and Ac& B c are also independent events.
41
Example:- The probability that a man will be alive in 25 years is 3/5 and the probability
that his wife will be alive in 25 years is 2/3.
A= Man alive P(A)=3/5 B=Wife alive P(B)=2/3
Find the probability that
c3 1 1
P( A Ç B ) = ´ =
(1):- Only Man will alive 5 3 5
P ( A Ç B c ) + P ( Ac Ç B )
(2):- Only one will alive =
3 1
´ +
2
´
2
=
7
5 3 5 3 15

(3):- Both will alive P( A Ç B) =

3
5
´
2
3
=
2
5
2 1 2
(4):- Non of them will alive P ( Ac Ç B c ) = ´
5 3
=
15
3 2 2 13
P( A È B) = + - =
(5):- Al least one will alive 5 3 5 15 42
Example:- 50% of the people use cellular mobile and 40% people use landline and 20% use
both. Find the probability that a person selected uses neither.
Neither allows us to make a negative statement (compliment) about two people or things at the same time.

A= Use cellular mobile P ( A) = 0.50

B=Use landline phone
P ( B ) = 0.40
P ( A Ç B ) = 0.20

C C C
P ( A Ç B ) = P ( A È B ) = 1- P ( A È B )
= 1- [ 0.5 + 0.4 - 0.2] = 0.30
43
Example:- Mr Zaid applied for three separate posts. For the first post there are three
candidates, for second five candidates and for third ten candidates. What is the probability
that Mr Zaid would be selected?

1
A= Zaid selected for Ist post P ( A) = 3
1
P ( B ) =
B=Zaid selected for 2nd post 5
1
P (C ) =
C=Zaid selected for 3rd post 10

P ( A È B È C ) = 1- P ( A È B È C )C
= 1- éê
ëP ( AC
Ç B C
Ç C C ù
)ú
û
é2 4 9 ù 13
= 1- ê ´ ´ ú=
ê
ë3 5 10 ú û 25
44
Example:- A problem in statistics is given to three students A B and C. Whose chance of solving
are 1/2 , 3/4 , 1/4 respectively. What is the probability that problem will be solved.
Ans. 29/32

45
Example:- While coming and from a department store a consumer pass through one out of 12
cash counters C1 to C12 (All having same probability) then his bill is verified by one of 3
officers (with same probabilities) V1, V2, V3, then he embarks one of two elevators E1, E2 and
is twice likely to embark on E2 as E1.
Find the probability a consumer will pass through C6 or C12 verified by V1 and embark on E2.
1
P(C1 ) = P(C2 ) = P(C3 ),L = P(C12 ) =
12
1
P(V1 ) = P(V2 ) = P(V3 ) =
3 P [ (C 6 or C12) and V 1 and E 2]
1 2 P [ (C 6 È C12) Ç V1 Ç E 2] = æ 1
çç + ÷ 1 ö
´
1 2
´ =
1
P(E1 ) = P(E 2 ) = ÷
÷
çè12 12 ø 3 3 27
3 3
46
 Example:- Three boxes that contain balls Tree Diagram R=5/12
Box 1: 5 Red + 7 White=12
Box 2: 4 Red + 3 White=7
B1
Box 3: 3 Red + 4 White=7
A box is selected at random and a ball is 1/3 7/12

drawn from the box R=4/7

(i) Find the probability that ball
drawn is red B2 3/7
1/3

1 5 1 4 1 3 119
P( R) = ´ + ´ + ´ = = 0.4722
3 12 3 7 3 7 252 R=3/7
1/3
B3
4/7

47
(ii):-If the ball drawn is red, what is Tree Diagram R=5/12
the probability that it came from
box 1.
B1
1 5
´ 1/3 7/12
P(B1 | R ) = 3 12 = 0.294
1 5 1 4 1 3
´ + ´ + ´ R=4/7
3 12 3 7 3 7
B2 3/7
1/3

R=3/7
1/3
B3
4/7

48
 Example:- A factory produces its Tree Diagram D=0.04
entire output by three machines.
Machines I,II and III produce 50%,
30% and 20% of the output, where M1
4%,2% and 4% of their outputs are
0.50 0.96
defective, respectively.
D=0.02
If an items is selected and found
to be defective, what is the
M2 0.98
probability that machine II 0.30
produced that item
0.3´ 0.02
P(M 2 | D) = = 0.1765 D=0.04
0.5´ 0.04 + 0.3´ 0.02 + 0.2´ 0.04 0.20
M3
0.96

49
Example:- A factory produces its Tree Diagram
D=0.09
entire output by two machines.
Machine I produces twice as many
items as produce by machine II.
M1
Machines I and II produces 09% and
12% defectives, respectively. 2/3 0.91
(i) If an items is selected and found to be defective, what
is the probability that machine II produced that item
1
´ 0.12
P (M 2 | D) = 3 = 0.40
2 1
´ 0.09 + ´ 0.12
3 3

(ii) If an items is selected, what is the probability that

D=0.12
item is non-defective 1/3
C 2 1 M2
P (D ) = ´ 0.91 + ´ 0.88 = 0.90
3 3
æ2 1 ö 0.88
C ç ÷
OR P (D ) = 1- P(D) = 1- ç ´ 0.09 + ´ 0.12÷ = 1- 0.1 = 0.90
ç
è3 3 ÷
ø
50
Example:- COVID-19 virus is known to affect 1 in 10,000 people. It can be fatal but it is
treatable if it is detected early.
A screening test for virus for the disease shows a positive result for 99% of the people with
the disease. The test shows positive for 2 % of people who do not actually have the disease P=0.99

(i) If a test is perform on randomly selected person, what

is the probability that test result will be positive D

N=0.01
P( Positive) = 0.0001´ 0.99 + 0.9999´ 0.02 = 0.0201 0.0001

(ii)
If test result is positive for a person what is
the probability that person is actually affected
with virus 0.9999
P=0.02

H
0.0001´ 0.99 N=0.98
P( P | D) = = 0.0049
0.0001´ 0.99 + 0.9999´ 0.02
51
Example:- A binary communication channel carries data as one of two types
of signals, i.e. ones or zeros. A transmitted zero is sometimes received as a one
and a transmitted one is sometimes received as a zero because of noise.
For a given channel, assume a probability of 0.94 that a received zero is a
transmitted zero and a probability of 0.91 that a received one is a transmitted
one. Further assume a probability of 0.45 of transmitting a zero. If a single 0 =0.94
signal is sent, determine:
0
1=0.06
0.45

If a one was received, what is the probability 0.55

0=0.09
that a one was transmitted
1
0.55´ 0.91
P (one | one) = = 0.9488 1=0.91
0.45´ 0.06 + 0.55´ 0.91 52