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Move at most two coins to arrange vertical or horizontal 2 lines of 4 coin each
History of PROBABILITY
(Read for information only)
A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of probability by two famous
A well known French gambler, Chevalier de Méré, with an interest in gaming and gambling questions,
The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not to bet
even money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws. A seemingly well-
established gambling rule led de Méré to believe that betting on a double six in 24 throws would be
Throughout the 18th century, the application of probability moved from games of chance
to scientific problems:
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Probability
is the chance that something will happen. The words such as chance, likelihood, possibility
Random Experiment:
Any process whose result cannot be predicted with certainty.
outcome
is a possible result of a probability experiment
5
sample space:
A list of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Experiment: Tossing of single coin S={H,T} n(S)=2
Experiment: Tossing of two coins S={HH, HT, TH,TT} n(S)=4
Experiment: Tossing of three coins S={HHH, HHT ,HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Experiment: Throwing of single dice S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Experiment: Throwing of two dice (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
( 2,1) ( 2,2) ( 2,3) ( 2,4) ( 2,5) ( 2,6)
(3,1) (3, 2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
S
( 4,1) ( 4,2) ( 4,3) ( 4,4) ( 4,5) ( 4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6, 4) (6,5) (6,6)
Compound Event:- An event that contains more than one sample points
For example, in tossing of two coins compound event may be at least one head
A=At least one head
A={HH, HT, TH} n(A)=3
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Probability
Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Sure
0 0.5 1
0% 50% 100%
½
Formula :
n( A)
P ( A) =
n( S )
Example:-A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that
S={HHH, HHT ,HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
n( A) 7
(i) At most two head appears P ( A) =
n( S )
=
8
n( A) 7
(ii) At least one tail appears P ( A) =
n( S )
=
8
n( A) 3
(iii) Exactly two head appears. P ( A) = =
n( S ) 8
n( A) 0
(iv) Four heads appear P ( A) = = =0
n( S ) 8
n( A) 4
(v) More heads than tails P ( A) = =
n( S ) 8
n( A) 0
P( A) = = =0
(vi) Equal number of heads and tails n( S ) 8 9
Distribution of 52 playing cards, of 4 suits with 13 cars in each suit
Black Red
Example:-If a card is selected from an ordinary
Spade Clubs Diamond Hearts
deck of 52 playing cards, find the probability that
♣ ♠ ♦ ♥ 26
=
A A A A (i):- The card is a red card 52
K K K K 12
=
Q Q Q Q 52
J J J J (ii):-The card is a face card
13
10 10 10 10 =
9 9 9 9 (iii):- The card is a club 52
8 8 8 8 36
7 7 7 7 =
6 6 6 6 (iv):-The card is a number card. 52
5 5 5 5
4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2
10
Picture cards
11
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, S
what is the probability of getting (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
1
=
(i) a double six 36
15
(ii) sum of the dots are 8 or more =
36
18
(iii) sum of the dots is even =
36
6
(iv) a doublet =
36
15
(v) product of the numbers on the dice is divisible by 4 =
36 12
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, S
what is the probability of getting (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
4
=
(i)The difference between two numbers is 4 36
12
(ii)Numbers on the two dice differ by more than 2 =
36
6
(iii)I number is greater than 2 number by more than 2
st nd =
36
6
=
(iv)Two numbers are alike 36
9
=
(v)Odd numbers on both dice 36 13
How many students are girls or wear glasses 3 + 2 – 1=4
18 + 18 - 9 27
( Vi)Even on I
st
or sum is even =
36
=
36
6 + 18 - 3 21
(Vii) Number 2 on Ist or sum is odd =
36
=
36
3
(Viii) Number 2 on I and sum is odd
st =
36
15
Example:- The employees of a certain company have elected five of their number to represent them on the employee-
management productivity council Profile of the five are as follows:
Age(Years) 30 32 45 20 40
This group decides to elect a spokesperson by drawing a name from a hat. What is the
probability that the spokesperson will be either female or over 35?
2 + 2- 1 3
P(Female or Over 35) = 5
=
5
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Example:- If a student is selected at random then find the probability that
Weight / Age 10------20 21---------25 26--------30 31--------35 TOTAL
50------60 20 28 36 35 119
61------65 30 36 39 20 125
66------70 35 36 40 45 156
TOTAL
85 100 115 100 400
=
a) The student has age less than or equal to 30 400
=
b) The student has age 21 to 25 or has weight 66 to 70 400
=
c) The student has age 26 or greater 400
=
d) The student has age 10 to 20 and has weight 61 to 65 400
=
400
e) The student has age 10 to 20 or 26-30 or has weight 66 to 70 17
A U B =A+B-AႶB A U B =A+B
19
Example:- The employees of a certain company have elected five of their number to represent them on the
employee-management productivity council Profile of the five are as follows:
over 35?
2 + 2- 1 3 Addition Theorem
P(Female or Over 35) = =
5 5 A=Female B=Over 35
P(A)=2/5 P(B)=2/5
P(A B)=1/5
2 2 1 2 + 2- 1 3
P( A È B) = + - = =
5 5 5 5 5 20
Example:- The probability that a student will pass in
Mathematics is 0.6 and that a student will pass in Statistics is
0.4, he will pass in both Mathematics & Statistics is 0.3. If a
student is selected at random what is the probability that he
will pass in Mathematics or Statistics (i.e he will pass in
atleast one subject)
Addition Theorem
A=Pas in Math B=Pass in Stat
P(A)=0.6 P(B)=0.4
P(A B)=0.3
P ( A È B ) = 0.6 + 0.4 - 0.3 = 0.7 21
Example:- If a number is selected at random from 1 to 100 what is the
probability that selected number is multiple of 3 or 5
Addition Theorem
A=Multiple of 3 B=Multiple of 5
(A B)=Multiple of 3 and 5 (i.e Multiple of 15)
n(A)=33 n(B)=20
n(A B)=6
P(A)=33/100=0.33 P(B)=20/100=0.20
P(A B)=6/100=0.06
(ii):- P( B A ) P( B) P( A B)
c
(iii): P ( A B ) P ( A B ) 1 P ( A B )
c c c
(iv) P ( A B ) P ( A B ) 1 P ( A B )
c c c
24
ABc = A-AB
c
(i):- P( A B ) P( A) P( A B)(ii):- P( A Ç B) = P( B) - P( A Ç B)
c
25
Example(1):- Let A and B be any two events with P(A B) =3/4 , P(Ac)=2/3
P(A B)=1/4.
Then find (i) P(A) (ii) P(B) (iii) P(A BC) (iv) P(A B) (v) P(AC BC)
Solution:- (i) P(A)=1-2/3=1/3
(ii) P(A B)=P(A)+P(B)- P(A B) 3/4=1/3+P(B)-1/4 P(B)=2/3
(iii) P(A BC)= P(A)- P(A B) 1/3-1/4=1/12
(iv) P(A B)=P(A)+P(B)- P(A B) =3/4
3 1
(v) P(A B ) P( A B) 1 P( A B) 1
c c c
4 4
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Conditional Probability
The sample space for an experiment must often be changed when some
additional information pertaining to the outcome of the experiment is received.
The effect of such information is to reduce the sample space by excluding
some outcomes as being impossible which before receiving the information
were believed possible. The probability associated with such a reduced sample
space is called conditional probability
Suppose A and B are two events, then the probability that event A occurs given
that event B has occurred is called a conditional probability and denoted by
P(A|B) . 27
Methods for calculating Conditional Probability
a):-Calculate conditional probability directly from reduced sample space:-
In this method first the sample space is reduced by using given information
(One event has occurred) and then the probability of another event is
calculated directly from reduced sample space. Such calculation of probability
is called conditional probability
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Example:- Two coins are tossed. What is the probability that two heads results,
given that there is at least one head.
Let A=Two head B=At least one head
S*={HH, HT ,TH}
n( A) 1
P( A | B) = =
n(S*) 3
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Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability that
(i) The sum of the dice will be 7, given that the sum is greater than 6
(ii) The sum of the dice will be 7, given that the two dice had same number
Let A=Sum is 7 B=Sum is at least 6
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (1,6)
(2,1) ( 2,2) (2,3) ( 2,4) (2,5) (2,6) By using information (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
S (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) ( 4,2) (4,3) ( 4,4) (4,5) (4,6) ( sum is greater than 6) S
*
(5,1) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1)
reduced sample space (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
n( A) 6
P( A | B) = =
n(S*) 21
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Example:- If two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability that
(ii) The sum of the dice will be 7, given that the two dice had same number
n( A) 0
P( A | B) = = =0
n(S*) 6
31
Example:- Supper departmental store has been the target of many shoplifters
during the past month, but owning to increased security precautions, 250
shoplifters have been caught. Each shoplifter’s s gender is noted; also noted
whether first-time or repeat offender. The data are summarized in the table:
(a) The probability that the shoplifter is a first-time offender, given that the shoplifter is male
A=Female B=Repeat
Male n( A) 76
130 70 P( A | B) = =
60 70 n(S*) 146
Female
44 76 120 76
Total
104 146 250 146 33
b):-Calculate conditional probability by applying conditional probability rule:
P( A B) P( A Ç B)
P( A / B) Similarly P( B / A) =
P( B) P ( A)
(a) The probability that the shoplifter is a first-time offender, given that the shoplifter is male
Male
60 70 130
Female 60
44 76 120 250 60
P( A | B) = =
130 130
Total
104 146 250 250
34
Example:- During a study of auto accident, the highway safety council found
that 60 percent of all accident occur at night, 52 percent are alcohol-related,
and 37% percent occur at night are alcohol-related. Find the probability that
(a) An accident was alcohol-related, given that it occurred at night
A=Alcohol B=Night
0.37
P(A)=0.52 P(B)=0.60 P( A | B) = = 0.62
0.60
P(A Ⴖ B)=0.37
(A Bc)
(1):- Pass in ONLY QT
(A Bc) or (Ac B)
(2):- Pass in Only one subject
(A B)
(3):- Pass in both subjects
(4):- Pass in non of subject (Ac Bc)= (AUB)c
( A B)
(5):- Pass in at least one subject
(6):- Pass in neither subject (Ac Bc)= (AUB)c 37
Example:- The probability that a man will be alive in 25 years is 3/5 and the probability
that his wife will be alive in 25 years is 2/3.
A= Man alive P(A)=3/5 B=Wife alive P(B)=2/3
Find the probability that
c3 1 1
P( A Ç B ) = ´ =
(1):- Only Man will alive 5 3 5
P ( A Ç B c ) + P ( Ac Ç B )
(2):- Only one will alive =
3 1
´ +
2
´
2
=
7
5 3 5 3 15
C C C C
P ( A Ç B ) = P ( A È B ) = 1- P ( A È B )
= 1- [ 0.5 + 0.4 - 0.2] = 0.30
39
Example:- Mr Zaid applied for three separate posts. For the first post there are three
candidates, for second five candidates and for third ten candidates. What is the probability
that Mr Zaid would be selected?
1
A= Zaid selected for Ist post P ( A) = 3
1
P ( B ) =
B=Zaid selected for 2nd post 5
1
P (C ) =
C=Zaid selected for 3rd post 10
P ( A È B È C ) = 1- P ( A È B È C )C
= 1- éê
ëP ( AC
Ç B C
Ç C C ù
)ú
û
é1 1 1 ù 13
= 1- ê ´ ´ ú=
ê
ë3 5 10 ú û 25
40
Example:- A problem in statistics is given to three students A B and C. Whose chance of solving
are 1/2 , 3/4 , 1/4 respectively. What is the probability that problem will be solved by any of
these.
Ans. 29/32
41
Example:- If a number is selected at random from 1 to 100 what is the probability that number is
i) multiple of either 3 or 5 (ii) multiple of neither 3 or 5 (iii) multiple of neither 3 nor 5
ii) multiple of 3 but not 5 (iv) multiple of one of 3 and 5
A= number is multiple of 3
B=number is multiple of 5
P(A)=0.33 P(B)= 0.2 P(A B=0.06
1) P ( A B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)=0.47
2) P( A B)c=1- P( A B)=0.53
3) P( Ac Bc)= P( A B)c=1- P( A B)=0.53
4) P( A Bc)= P(A) - P(A B)=0.27
5) P( A Bc)+ P( Ac B)= P(A) - P(A B)+ P(B) - P(A B)=0.41 42
Example:- While coming and from a department store a consumer pass through one out of 12
cash counters C1 to C12 (All having same probability) then his bill is verified by one of 3
officers (with same probabilities) V1, V2, V3, then he embarks one of two elevators E1, E2 and
is twice likely to embark on E2 as E1.
Find the probability a consumer will pass through C6 or C12 verified by V1 and embark on E2.
1
P(C1 ) = P(C2 ) = P(C3 ), L = P(C12 ) =
12
1
P(V1 ) = P(V2 ) = P(V3 ) =
3 P [ (C 6 or C12) and V 1 and E 2]
1 2 æ1
ç 1 ö÷ 1 2 1
P(E1 ) = P(E 2 ) = P [ (C 6 È C12) Ç V1 Ç E 2] = ç + ÷ ÷´ ´ =
3 3 çè12 12 ø 3 3 27
43
Example:- Three boxes that contain balls Tree Diagram R=5/12
Box 1: 5 Red + 7 White=12
Box 2: 4 Red + 3 White=7
B1
Box 3: 3 Red + 4 White=7
A box is selected at random and a ball is 1/3 7/12
1 5 1 4 1 3 119
P( R) = ´ + ´ + ´ = = 0.4722
3 12 3 7 3 7 252 R=3/7
1/3
B3
4/7
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(ii):-If the ball drawn is red, what is Tree Diagram R=5/12
the probability that it came from
box 1.
B1
1 5
´ 1/3 7/12
P(B1 | R ) = 3 12 = 0.294
1 5 1 4 1 3
´ + ´ + ´ R=4/7
3 12 3 7 3 7
B2 3/7
1/3
R=3/7
1/3
B3
4/7
45
Example:- A factory produces its Tree Diagram D=0.04
entire output by three machines.
Machines I,II and III produce 50%,
30% and 20% of the output, where M1
4%,2% and 4% of their outputs are
0.50 0.96
defective, respectively.
D=0.02
If an items is selected and found
to be defective, what is the
M2 0.98
probability that machine II 0.30
produced that item
0.3´ 0.02
P(M 2 | D) = = 0.1765 D=0.04
0.5´ 0.04 + 0.3´ 0.02 + 0.2´ 0.04 0.20
M3
0.96
46
Example:- A factory produces its Tree Diagram
D=0.09
entire output by two machines.
Machine I produces twice as many
items as produce by machine II.
M1
Machines I and II produces 09% and
12% defectives, respectively. 2/3 0.91
(i) If an items is selected and found to be defective, what
is the probability that machine II produced that item
1
´ 0.12
P (M 2 | D) = 3 = 0.40
2 1
´ 0.09 + ´ 0.12
3 3