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Solar
Energy
Earth’s Temperature
Sun
Solar Radiative
Cooling
Energy
Earth’s Temperature
Sun
Solar
Radiative
Cooling
Energy
Earth’s Temperature
Sun
Solar
Radiative
Energy Cooling
Sun Greenhouse Effect
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases
Nitrogen (N2)
Non-
Oxygen (O2) Greenhouse
>99%
Gases
Argon (Ar)
Water (H2O)
Greenhouse
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) <1%
Gases
Methane (CH4)
Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect
CO2 (ppm)
370 370
350
CO2 (ppm)
330
320 310
40 30 20 10 0
270
220
Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core
170 600000 400000 200000 0
Time (YBP)
Worldwide Carbon Emissions
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)
Total
7 Liquid fuel
6 Solid fuel
Gas fuel
5
4
3
2
1
0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Annual Carbon Emissions
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)
0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
• Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in
China and developing countries
• Likely to double within 150 years:
Increased coal usage
Increased natural gas usage
Decreased petroleum usage (increased
cost and decreasing supply)
Kyoto Protocol
• Adopted in 1997
• Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990
levels for 2008-2012
• Symbolic only, since cuts will not
significantly impact global warming
Past Temperatures
Recorded Worldwide Flat
Temperatures
0.8
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)
0.6
0.4 Decreasing
Flat
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Historic Los Angeles
Temperatures
Annual Temperatures Summer Temperatures Winter Temperatures
22 25 17
21 24 16
20 23 15
Temperature (°C)
19 22 14
18 21 13
17 20 12
16 19 11
15 18 10
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year Year Year
2009 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980
Apehelion Perihelion
Orbital Parameters: Obliquity
24.5°
22.5°
Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity
Maximum: 0.061
Minimum: 0.005
Apehelion
Apehelion Perihelion
To Scale!
Not to scale!
Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate
Precession
(22 ky)
Obliquity
(41 ky)
Eccentricity
(100 ky)
Temperature
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
• For the past 3 million years, the earth
has been experiencing ~100,000 year
long cycles of glaciation followed by
~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• Last ice age began to thaw 15,000
years ago, but was interrupted by the
“Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years
ago
Younger Dryas Event
-25 Younger 0.35
Medieval Warm
-35 0.25
-50 0.10
-55 0.05
20 15 10 5 0
Age (kya)
Younger Dryas Event
-8.0 -34
Younger
-7.5 Dryas -35
-36
O (Greenland)
-7.0
-37
O (China)
-6.5 -38
-6.0 -39
-5.5 -40
18
-41
18
δ
-5.0
-42
δ
-4.5 -43
-4.0 -44
16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
60
S D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng
90
Paleozoic Mesozoic Cenozoic
400 300 200 100 0
Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580
Recent Temperature
Changes
“Hockey Stick” Controversy
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)
-1
-2
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
0.4
Medieval Warm Period
Temperature Change (°C)
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Mann et al. 1999
-0.8 Esper et al. 2002
-1.0 Moberg et al. 2005
Mann et al. 2008
-1.2
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
Year
U.S. National Academy of
Sciences: June 2006
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.2 0.5
0.0 0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6 -1.0
1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
Year Year
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
370
320 31
30
270 29
28
220 27
26
170
600000 400000 200000 025
Time (YBP)
Consequences of
Global Warming
Global Warming Primarily Impacts
the Northern Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
1.0
Temperature Change (°C)
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
2003 2004 2005
Year
Rise in Sea Levels?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006
mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result
in 12 in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more
rise are unrealistic
Changing Sea Levels
20
10
-20
29
-40
28
-60
-80 27
-100 26
-120 25
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Time (KYBP)
Increase in Hurricanes?
15
• Two studies
Data Unreliable
SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
450 550 650 750
Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
Possible Solutions to
Global Warming
Mitigation of Global Warming
• Conservation
Reduce energy needs
Recycling
• Alternate energy sources
Nuclear
Wind
Geothermal
Hydroelectric
Solar
Fusion?
Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations
1.
1. Depleted
Depleted oil
oil and
and gas
gas reservoirs
reservoirs
2.
2. CO
CO22 in
in enhanced
enhanced oil
oil and
and gas
gas recovery
recovery
3.
3. Deep
Deep saline
saline formations
formations –– (a)
(a) offshore
offshore (b)
(b) onshore
onshore
4.
4. CO
CO22 in
in enhanced
enhanced coal
coal bed
bed methane
methane recovery
recovery
1 4
3
3 b
2
a
1366.6
0.4 1366.2
1366.0
0.2 1365.8
1365.6
0.0
1365.4
-0.2 1365.2
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Volcanoes Put Out More CO2
Than Fossil Fuel Burning
Carbon (109 metric tons)
10
0
Volcanoes Fossil Fuel
Global Warming is Caused by
Sunspots
0.8 250
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)
0.6
200
0.4
Sunspots
0.2 150
0.0 100
-0.2
50
-0.4
-0.6 0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Hadley Temperatures Vs.
Sunspots
1.5 250
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)
1.0 200
0.0
Sunspots
150
-0.5
100
-1.0
-1.5 50
-2.0 0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Global Warming is Caused by
GCR
1.0 4600
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)
0.8 4400
20
4 300
20
280
Sea Level
-20
0
Temperature
CO2 (ppmv)
260
-40
-2
Relative
240
-60
-4
220
-80
-6
-100
-8 200
-120
-10 180
500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0
Time (ybp)
Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
Global Warming is Due to Urban
Heat Islands
10
1.0
∆ T (°C)
0.5
Drastic reduction in carbon emissions
0 OBSERVED
SCENARIO A
SCENARIO B
SCENARIO C
-0.4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241. Date
Temperature Extrapolation
2.5
2.0
1.5
∆ T (°C)
1.0
0.5
-0.4
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Date
Conclusions
• Global warming is happening
• Most warming is probably the result of
human activities
• There will be positive and negative
(mostly) repercussions from global
warming
• The costs to mitigate global warming
will be high – better spent elsewhere?