EKONOMI GLOBAL

Willem A. Makaliwe
(Lembaga Management FEBUI)
2021
Source: Samuelson (2001)
THE EQUILIBRIUM OF REAL AND
F I N A N C I A L S E C TO R S

 Free Goods
 Barter
 Money
- Legal Tender
- Gold Standard
- Bad money drives out good money
- Paper Money
- Digital Money
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 INSTRUMENTS AND OBJECTIVES OF
MACROECONOMIC POLICY

Objectives 1. a. Employment Rate

b. Unemployment Rate
c. Economic Growth
2. Inflation Rate

Instruments 1. Monetary Policy

2. Fiscal Policy

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4
 Business Cycle
INSTRUMENTS AND OBJECTIVES OF
MACROECONOMIC POLICY
S ke nario

Trend
Objectives 1. a. Employment Rate
Bus ine s s Conditions

Peak b. Unemployment Rate

Resesi
c. Economic Growth Pengangguran
Kontraksi
2. Inflation Rate
Trough Ekspansi Inflasi

Instruments 1. Monetary Policy Recovery Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi
Recovery Recovery Recovery
Recession
2. Fiscal
Recession
Policy
Tim e Pe riod

Sumber:
2 Diilustrasikan ulang dari Referensi oleh Willem Makaliwe (2018)
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52
Fortune Global 500, year of 2020

6
 List of Countries by GDP
(nominal and PPP, 2020)

Source: Modified from IMF, Wikipedia, 2020 7

 List of countries by GDP/capita

Source: Modified from Wikipedia, 2020 8

 RECESSION?
T W O Q U A RT E R S I N A R O W O F N E G AT I V E E C O N O M I C
GROWTH

Sumber: Diolah dari data BPS (2020)

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 INDONESIAN ECONOMY: EXPENDITURES

PDB HB 2016 2001-2016 PDB HK (Growth) 2001-2008 PDB HK (Growth) 2011-2016 PDB HK (Growth) 2013-2016 PDB HK (Growth)
PDB Pengeluaran
Nilai Distribusi AVG STD CV MIN MAX AVG STD CV AVG STD CV AVG STD CV
(Rp Triliun) (%)
Produk Domestik Bruto 12,406.80 5.4% 0.01 0.15 4% 7% 5.2% 0.01 0.17 5.6% 0.01 0.13 5.2% 0.00 0.08
1 Konsumsi Rumah Tangga 7,009.60 56.5% 4.6% 0.01 0.16 3% 5% 4.2% 0.01 0.19 5.2% 0.00 0.04 5.1% 0.00 0.04
2 Konsumsi Pemerintah 1,172.40 9.4% 6.5% 0.04 0.68 0% 16% 8.1% 0.03 0.39 3.9% 0.03 0.71 3.3% 0.03 1.00
3 Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto 4,254.60 34.3% 6.0% 0.05 0.77 -4% 12% 6.2% 0.06 0.98 5.9% 0.03 0.52 4.2% 0.01 0.35
4 Ekspor Barang dan Jasa 2,367.30 19.1% 5.4% 0.08 1.40 -10% 17% 7.9% 0.06 0.76 3.0% 0.06 2.11 0.3% 0.03 8.44
Ekspor Barang 2,035.50 2.5% 0.07 2.58 -0.1% 0.03 -23.13
Ekspor Jasa 331.90 7.0% 0.04 0.63 4.6% 0.03 0.63
5 (-) Impor Barang dan Jasa 2,271.20 18.3% 5.7% 0.10 1.79 -15% 27% 9.2% 0.10 1.04 3.1% 0.08 2.48 -1.2% 0.04 -3.43
Impor Barang 1,854.80 3.6% 0.08 2.28 -1.0% 0.04 -3.96
Impor Jasa 416.40 0.0% 0.04 -2.0% 0.04 -1.82
Sumber: Diolah Lembaga Management FEB-UI dari data ADB dan BPS (2017)

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 INDONESIAN ECONOMY: GDP VALUE ADDED

PDB HB 2016 2001-2016 PDB HK (Growth) 2001-2008 PDB HK (Growth) 2009-2012 PDB HK (Growth) 2013-2016 PDB HK (Growth)
PDB Sektoral
Nilai
Distribusi (%) AVG STD CV MIN MAX AVG STD CV AVG STD CV AVG STD CV
(Rp Triliun)
Produk Domestik Bruto 12,406.80 5.4% 0.01 0.15 4% 7% 5.2% 0.01 0.17 5.9% 0.01 0.15 5.2% 0.00 0.08
1 Pertanian, Peternakan, Kehutanan, dan Perikanan 1,669.00 13.5% 3.7% 0.01 0.17 3% 5% 3.5% 0.01 0.19 3.9% 0.01 0.17 3.9% 0.00 0.12
2 Pertambangan dan Penggalian 893.90 7.2% 1.2% 0.03 2.13 -4% 4% 0.4% 0.02 6.26 3.9% 0.01 0.17 0.2% 0.03 16.77
3 Industri Pengolahan 2,544.60 20.5% 4.6% 0.01 0.23 2% 6% 4.7% 0.01 0.21 4.7% 0.02 0.38 4.4% 0.00 0.04
4 Listrik, Gas, dan Air Bersih 151.70 1.2% 7.0% 0.03 0.44 1% 14% 7.5% 0.02 0.31 8.7% 0.04 0.48 4.4% 0.02 0.47
5 Bangunan 1,287.70 10.4% 6.9% 0.01 0.18 5% 9% 7.0% 0.01 0.20 7.4% 0.01 0.15 6.2% 0.01 0.12
6 Perdagangan, Hotel, dan Restoran 1,998.20 16.1% 5.8% 0.02 0.39 1% 9% 6.2% 0.02 0.28 6.2% 0.04 0.59 4.4% 0.01 0.25
7 Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi 1,096.30 8.8% 11.4% 0.03 0.26 8% 17% 12.5% 0.03 0.23 12.1% 0.03 0.26 8.6% 0.00 0.03
8 Keuangan, Persewaan, dan Jasa Perusahaan 1,080.80 8.7% 6.9% 0.01 0.14 5% 8% 7.0% 0.01 0.13 6.7% 0.02 0.23 6.8% 0.01 0.12
9 Jasa-Jasa 1,241.50 10.0% 5.4% 0.01 0.20 3% 7% 5.1% 0.01 0.24 6.2% 0.01 0.12 5.3% 0.01 0.15

Sumber: Diolah Lembaga Management FEB-UI dari data ADB dan BPS (2017)

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 INDONESIA OUTLOOK, 2021-2025

Sumber: Lembaga Management FEBUI (2021)

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TERIMA KASIH
 Dr. Willem A. Makaliwe
Managing Director, Lembaga Management Faculty of Economics
and Business, University of Indonesia (LM FEB-UI), 2020-present.
Lecturer at FEB-UI, undergraduate and postgraduate program.

Doctorate in monetary economics at Postgraduate Program

University of Indonesia, 2008, after studying at FEUI and University
of Essex, United Kingdom.

willem.makaliwe@lmfebui.co Certified executive program at Massachusetts Institute of

m
wmakaliwe@gmail.com Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, 2016 and Certified Wealth
Management, CWMA, 2019. Attending conferences and seminars
at Seoul, 2013, Kyoto, 2014, Vienna, 2015, and Indiana, 2017.
Attending AEA Congress in 2016 at San Francisco.

Specialized in the field of Industrial Analysis, Monetary Economics,

and Corporate Restructuring. Handled more than a hundred
projects, including SOEs restructuring in Insurance, Forestry,
Mining non-Oil and Gas, Fertilizer, and Plantation.