CIVE1140

Infrastructure
Management

Dr David Law

Room 12.13.31
Service Life Modelling

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Service Life Modelling

• Limit States • Evidence

–Entrance of aggressive –Cores/drillings
agents
–Initiation of corrosion –LPR/Half cell
–Rust staining –Visual
–Cracking –Visual
–Spalling –Visual
–Structural failure –Closure

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Service Life Modelling

• Mathematical models available

– Initiation phase
– Time dependant ingress of aggressive agents
– Threshold level to initiate corrosion
– Propagation phase
– Rate of corrosion
– Time to cracking/spalling
– Structural failure

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Model Types – Initiation Phase

• Deterministic
– Uses measured values
– Cover
– Chloride profiles (diffusion coefficients)
– Cementitious material
– Age
– Threshold value
– Surface chloride level
– Well established models
– LIFE365, Duracrete
– All give very similar values
– Single output value
– Time to corrosion
– Cover required to provide required service life

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Model Types - Initiation Phase

– Probabilistic
– Uses distribution curves, mean and standard deviation
– Cover
– Diffusion coefficient
– Threshold
– Surface chloride level
– Models still in development stage
– Probability/Reliability as output
– Confidence limits
– y% chance corrosion will/will not be initiated after x years

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Initiation Phase

• Deterministic
– Measured values
– Site measurements
– Specified design
– Provides time to initiation of corrosion or chloride concentration at bar
after a set time (service life)
– Structure specific

• Probabilistic
– Distribution function for each variable (based on experience)
– Monte Carlo, risk simulations
– Provides probability that service life is reached
– Reliability Index
– Confidence Limit
– Applicable to network of structures

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Chloride Models

• Data from Cores

• Data from Laboratory
• Data from literature

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Typical Chloride Profile – Core
Sample
Sample 1C1
Best Fit Data
0.25
% Chloride by weight of

0.2
concrete

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Depth (mm)

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Chloride Ponding Test

Sample ponded in NaCl for 90 days (NORD Test)

All faces except top sealed with epoxy
Chloride profile determined after 90 days

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Initiation Phase
Chloride Diffusion Model (Fick’s 2nd Law)

Cx,t = CS [1 - erf ( x )]
2(DappT)½

Cx,t = Chloride at depth x, at time t

Cs = Surface chloride
Dapp = Chloride diffusion coefficient apparant
T = Time
x = Cover Depth
erf = error function

Requires concentration of chlorides at bar to initiate corrosion to predict service

life

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Chloride Diffusion Model

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Chloride Diffusion Model

• Surface Chloride
– Builds up with time
– Marine structures immediate
– Roads annual de-icing salts
– Build up over winter, washed out over rest of year
– Coastal gradual continuous build up by aerosol action
– Reaches a maximum value

• Chloride diffusion coefficient

– Changes with time
– Age of structure
– Age at which D determined
– Temperature
– Material specific
– PFA and GGBS start higher than OPC but improve significantly
– Silica fume has lower initial diffusion coefficient than OPC but does not
improve as much

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Chloride Diffusion Model

Surface chloride

Cs = C0(1 –et) where Cs < 0.06 (or any other pre-set value)

 is a constant depending upon exposure conditions, C0 is the

initial surface concentration and t time in years

This allows the surface level to build up to the maximum with

time.

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 Apparent Chloride Diffusion Coefficients
(Eurocrete)
N factor
 OPC -0.264
 PFA -0.699
 GGBS -0.621

Note :dependant on replacement

% and source of PFA/GGBS

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 Apparent Chloride Diffusion Coefficients

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 Effect of GGBS % Replacement

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Typical n values

Material Life 365 Eurocrete

OPC -0.256 -0.264

PFA (30%) -0.44 -0.699

GGBS (30%) -0.371

GGBS (50%) -0.486 -0.621

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Chloride Diffusion Coefficients – Silica Fume

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Chloride Diffusion Model
Chloride Diffusion Coefficient

Dapp = Dtm(t/tm)n

where
Dtm = chloride diffusion coefficient at time tm and n is the material coefficient

This allows for the change in diffusion coefficient with time. Thus a diffusion
coefficient determined when structure is built would have a t m value of 1, (0 can
not be used) while a diffusion coefficient measured from a core taken at an age
of 20 years would have a tm value of 21.

Chloride concentrations at the bar for every subsequent year can then be
calculated until the threshold value is determined.

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 Surface Chloride Concentrations
(%wt of concrete, Bamforth 1997)
 Mean Values
 OP cement 0.36%
 Blended cements 0.51%
 95% Confidence Limits

 OP cement 0.75%
 Blended cements 0.90%

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Chloride Diffusion Model

Rate of chloride build up at surface in different

marine environments

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Chloride Diffusion Model

Rate of chloride build up at surface in different urban

environments

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Chloride Diffusion Model

The model can also be extended to take into account

coatings and repair treatments, though the accuracy is
significantly reduced

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Cover Required

Cl- concentration
(% g Cl-/g cement)

0.4%

10 20 30 40 Cover (mm)

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 Carbonation Modelling

Depth of Carbonation = Q + k1.k2.k3.k4.k5.C.tx

Where:
Q = Instantaneous Carbonation
C = Carbonation Coefficient for Concrete
(Assumptions for C are made for differing grades of concrete)

t = time
k1 = factor - effect of CO2 concentration in the air
k2 = factor - effect of Exposure
k3 = factor - effect of orientation (N,S,E,W)
k4 = factor - effect of Curing
k5 = factor - effect of supplementary cementitious materials
(e.g. - flyash, BFS)

x = factor- effect of asset type and method of construction

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Initiation - Carbonation

• Simplified to
xc(t) = Kt0.5

t – time
xc(t) – carbonation depth at time t
K – constant

K can be determined from site data given carbonation

depth at time t.

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Initiation - Carbonation

• Environmental impact on carbonation rate

– Time of wetness
– Temperature

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Initiation - Carbonation

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Probabalistic Models

• Use a distribution function for each variable

– Normal, t, chi squared, Wei-Bull, etc
– Surface chloride, chloride diffusion coefficient, cover depth (age
factor, temperature)
– Select based on data, theory and experience

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Probabalistic Models

• Run Monte Carlo simulation (or similar) to build up a

distribution pattern for results
– Run model with random variables a large number of times (100+)

• Analyse probability that result gives desired service life

– Produces a distribution curve of results

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Probabalistic Models

Cover Probability Number Range

(mm) (%)
38 10 0–9

39 20 10 – 29

40 40 30 – 69

41 20 70 – 89

42 10 90 - 99
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Probabalistic Models

Random Number Cover Time to Corrosion

Generated (mm) (years)
35 40 120

62 40 120

81 41 125

13 39 115

48 40 120
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Distribution Curve

90

80

70

60
Frequency

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200
Predicted Time to Corrosion (years)

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