Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Devt Theories Notes
Devt Theories Notes
PERSPECTIVES
GESD511
1
Course Background
Course Description:
Introduces to the evolution of main tradition of thinking about
dev’t
The diverse meaning and understanding on development
Critical appraisal of development
The key issues frequently raised in conjunction to development
Provides an inter-disciplinary base on various thinking and
understanding about development
The broad contours of development theories and practices
Course Background ---
Learning Outcomes:
Understand the concepts of development discourse and
thoughts
Understand the evolution of main traditions of thinking about
dev’t
Appreciate the diversity of ideas, concepts and thoughts about
development
Evaluate theories and ideas that orient development approaches
and interventions.
Critique the opportunities and challenges of the development
concept
Course Contents
Unit One: Introduction
Unit Two: Theories of Development
Unit Three: The sociology of Development
Unit Four: Theories of Developmental State
Unit Five: Contemporary Development Perspectives
Unit Six: The Development Project and social
Responses
Unit Seven: Cross-cutting issues in Development
INTRODUCTION
Brainstorming Questions
• Why is the world so much richer today than it was
fifty or a hundred years before?
• What are the prospects for increasing prosperity in
the future?
• Why is the world today so unequal as we look across
countries?
• Can we find one comprehensive answer to the above
questions?
5
What do theories and models of
development tries to explain?
8
For the common denominator of “basic needs” one can
deduct goals of development as:
1.Economic growth: to secure food and other requirements
for the population;
2.Social justice: to reduce inequality; Gender/ethnic/relegious
3.Employment: as means of earning, and because of its
ethical and social value;
4.Participation: as political involvement and social sharing
5.Independence: freedom from external domination
While individual societies have different opinion on the
priorities of these goals, in the absence of a general theory of
devt.
One can use the criterion of fulfillment of these goals as a
yardstick in development. Development is then understood
as a simultaneous progress towards these five goals
9
Economic development theory-Definition
• Economic Theory is a systematic explanation of
interrelationships among economic variables. Growth,
productivity, income, saving, inflation,
• An economic variable is any measurement that helps to
determine how an economy functions. Examples
include population, poverty rate, inflation, and available
resources.
Why theory?
• Purpose – to explain causal relationships among
variables, to understand world better and provide basis
for policy
• Production, Saving, investment, growth
10
• Theories of development have been
motivated by the need to explain mass
poverty/ underdevelopment. Interest in
development issues is of rather recent
origin, dating back not much earlier than
the nineteen fifties and early sixties.
• As represented by their more influential
proponents, the development schools of
thought reflect roughly the following
chronological order of appearance:
11
• Theories are generalizations. While Less Developed
Countries (LDCs) share similarities, every country’s
unique economic, social, cultural, and historical
experience means the implications of a given theory
vary widely from country to country.
• There is no one agreed “model of development”.
Each theory gives an insight into one or two
dimensions of the complex process of development.
For example, the Rostow model helps us to think
about the stages of development LDCs might take,
while the Harrod-Domar model explains the
importance of adequate savings in that process.
12
Attention
• Development is not a final state of things but a
process
• Development is a social, political and economic
issue , not simply the provision of material goods
• It is a continuous process
• In many theories, it is understood as something
static, to be achieved, as a ‘final’ state
13
What is theory?
Definition:
The formal scientific definition of "theory" is quite
different from the everyday meaning of the word.
1. “a system of ideas explaining something”; or
Example: urban land use, continental drift
2. “a system of ideas based on general principles
independent of the facts or phenomena to be
explained”; or
3. “a scientific statement or a group of scientific
statements”.
Classification: Simple vs. scientific
theory
• Arba Minch is located across lake shores---
simple statement
• One finds the big cities generally located
across the rivers in the world—
complex/scientific statement. Because the
‘scientific statements’ are based on
generalizations, derived from a number of
simple statements (facts). This mainly of our
interest
• After searching out some relationship /
order(pattern), we state it or express it in the form
of scientific statements. The lowest order
statements are ‘generalizations’ followed by ‘laws’
or ‘theories’ at higher order of explanation.
Example: laws of migration
4. Thus, the theories are the highest order scientific
statements or the universal statements. They state
some rule of action, behavior, process or
development.
5. Theory is a systematic and general attempt to
explain something like:
– Why do industries agglomerate?
– Why agricultural/urban land use pattern varies
spatially?
– What should be the spacing of urban settlement?
Each of these questions contains a reference to some
observed phenomenon. A suggested explanation for
the observed phenomenon is theory.
6. More formally, a theory is a coherent set of general
propositions/plan/ suggestions, used as principles
of explanations of the apparent relationship of
certain observed phenomena.
32
• The quantity demanded : is a function of five
factors
– price,
– buyer income,
– the price of related goods,
– consumer tastes, and
– any consumer expectations of future supply and price.
– As these factors change, so too does
the quantity demanded.
75
UNDP, Report
76
UNDP, Report
77
CHAPTER TWO
Theories of
Development/Underdevelopment
78
Introduction
Theory: is a systematic explanation of the
interrelationships among assumptions & the
reality
Usually, a theory is used not only to understand the
world better, but also to provide a basis for policy
decision
Theorizing about dev’t didn’t begin TILL the
middle of 20thc,
We may look roots of contemporary dev’t
theories in the work of classical scholars such as
Adam Smith, Marx and Engels, who, writing in
the 1840s,
Evolution of Development
Theories
Modern Theories & models
of Development
Early years of Post WWII is considered as
the birth of ‘modern’ thinking of
development
Here, we broadly classify theories
development in to two broader
categories:
1. Classic Theories of Economic
Development
2. Contemporary Models of Development &
Under-Development
1. Classic Theories of Ec.
Dev’t:
Four Approaches
Literature dominated by the
following four strings of thought:
Linear-stages-of-growth model: 1950s
and 1960s
Theories and patterns of structural
change: 1970s
International-dependence revolution:
1970s
Neo-classical, free-market
counterrevolution:
1980s and 1990s
A. Linear-stages theory
• Viewed the process of development as a
series of successive stages of economic
growth
• Mixture of saving, investment, and
foreign aid was necessary for economic
development
• Emphasized the role of accelerated capital
accumulation in economic development
83
Theories of economic stages
• Historically oriented
• Evolution of human society has passed
through different stages until the present
• Key element: progress
• What is progress? Change in standard of life
High variety of stages and explanations, de-
pending on the perspective of the individual
author
84
Historical background to modernisation theory
87
Traditional
• output consumed by producers rather than traded
• trade carried out by barter; goods exchanged for
other goods
• agriculture → dominating sector; labor-intensive
• Landholders plays a dominant and important role in
the determination of political and economic power
• Question: where do we find this stage?
88
Precondition for take-off-transitional
society
• destruction of traditional ways of life through
outside forces such as colonialism/trade
• emergence of entrepreneurial and managerial
class
• development of a financial sector and increase
in investment
• infrastructural development
• modern business using new and sophisticated
methods of production
89
Take-off—to sustained growth
91
Age of High mass consumption
• the economy is oriented towards mass
consumption :The use or purchase of goods
or services by a large number of people.
'industrialization allows for high mass
consumption of material goods
94
Take-off period
95
Modernisation theory – role of the West in
developing countries
iv Urbanisation to be
encouraged
(Hoselitz)
With such help from the west poor countries would
develop
c. An urban population
d. Lifestyles of conspicuous/obvious/noticable
consumption
Criticism of modernisation theory
1. It is ethnocentric because
(a) it devalues traditional values and social
institutions e.g. extended families
(b) it ignores increasing inequality within and
between countries
(c) it is not a neutral theory as it suggests (it
promotes western capitalist values)
2 Education in developing
world mainly benefits
small, local elites (those
at the top)
3 It assumes unlimited
natural resources for
industrial expansion.
(ignores ecological
issues)
4 There is no, one single way to advancement and
historical context is also important.
102
Other forms of stages
E. Friedrich
• Reflexive/ spontaneous economy (focus:
spontaneous needs; subsistence)
• Instinctive economy (adaptation to nature, de-
cline of pure subsistence economy)
• Traditional economy (less dependence from
nature, division of labour, market economy)
• Scientific economy (independent from nature
thanks to science and technology, market
economy)
103
Friedman, M.
105
Growth stage theories (continued)
107
An alternative model for the African
context
108
Summary
Rostow identified 5 stages of
growth:
1. The traditional society
2. The pre-conditions for take-off
3. The take-off
4. The drive to maturity
5. The age of high mass consumption
All advanced economies have
passed the stage of take-off into self
sustaining growth
Developing countries are still in the
traditional society or the pre-
conditions stage.
Different countries are at different
stages of development.
109
Harrod-Domar model
The Harrod-Domar model developed in the l930s suggests
savings provide the funds, for investment purposes.
The economy's rate of growth depends on:
1.- the level of saving and the savings ratio
2.- the productivity of investment i.e. economy's capital-output
ratio
For example, if £8 worth of capital equipment produces each £1
of annual output, a capital-output ratio of 8 to 1 exists. A 3 to 1
ratio indicates that only £3 of capital is required to produce
each £1 of output annually.
Which one is preferable?
110
Harrod-Domar model (1950)
• Savings leads to economic growth
• Output per unit of capital increases leads to
economic growth
112
Criticisms of the model
- It is difficult to stimulate the desired level of domestic savings
- Meeting a savings gap by borrowing form overseas causes debt
repayment problems later.
- Diminishing marginal returns to capital equipment exist so each
successive unit of investment is less productive and the capital to
output ratio rises.
- The amount of investment is just one factor affecting
development e.g. supply side approach (free up markets); human
resource development (education and training)
- Economic growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for
development
- Sector structure of the economy important (i.e. agriculture v
industry v services)
113
• Is Savings a necessary & sufficient condition?
• Savings & Capital accumulation may be
necessary for economic growth, but NOT a
sufficient condition.
• Other factors such as institutions, human
capital, skilled labor, transparency, etc.. may
be lacking.
116
The Lewis model is structural change model that explains how
labor transfers in a dual economy. For Lewis growth of the
industrial sector drives economic growth.
The Lewis Model argues economic growth requires structural
change in the economy whereby surplus labor in traditional
agricultural sector with low or zero marginal product, migrate to
the modern industrial sector where high rising marginal product.
Transferring surplus labor from rural to urban areas has no
effect on agricultural productivity
Firm’s profits are reinvested. Growth means jobs for surplus
rural labor. Additional workers in urban areas increase output
hence incomes and profits. Extra incomes increase demand for
domestic products while increased profits fund increased
investment. Hence rural urban migration offers self-generating
growth.
117
Main features of labor-surplus
dual-economy model
• 2 sectors – agriculture & industry
• Marginal product of labor in agriculture
• Wage rate in agriculture equals average
product of labor in agriculture
• Land fixed
• Wage rate higher in industrial sector
(features continued)
123
Chenery’s Model ….
The empirical studies identified several
characteristic features of economic development:
– Shift from agriculture to industrial production
– Steady accumulation of physical and human capital
– Change in consumer demands
– Increased urbanization
– Decline in family size
– Demographic transition
124
Chenery’s Model ….
125
The International-Dependence
Revolution: Various Versions
• LDCs beset by institutional, political & economic rigidities
both domestic and international
3.1.The neocolonial dependence model assumes Unequal
relationship between the center (developed countries) and
the periphery (LDCs).
3.2.The false-paradigm model: inappropriate advice by
developed countries experts and donors.
3.3.The dualistic-development thesis: leads to increased
inequality and poverty or greater gap between the few rich
and a large poor
theories and indicatirs of development 126
Dependency theories (late 1960's,
early 1970's).
131
(IDR) ….
• Three streams of thought:
132
Neoclassical Dependence
Model
• “Dependence is a conditioning situation in which
the economies of one group of countries are
conditioned by the development and expansion of
others.”
133
The False-Paradigm Model
• Attributes under development to the faulty and
inappropriate advice provided by biased and
ethnocentric international “expert advisers”
134
The Dualistic- Development
•
Thesis
Dualism represents the existence and persistence of increasing divergences
between rich and poor nations and rich and poor peoples at all levels.
• The concept embraces four key arguments:
1. Superior and inferior conditions can coexist in a given space at given
time
2. The coexistence is chronic and not transitional
3. The degrees of the conditions have an inherent tendency to increase
4. Superior conditions serve to “develop under development”
135
Weaknesses of IDR Models
136
D. The Neoclassical Counter-
revolution:
Market Fundamentalism
• Market fundamentalism gained resurgence/rebirth in the
1980s.
• It dominated economic policies of the US, Britain, Canada &
Germany, as well as the thinking of International
Development agencies such as the World Bank & the IMF.
• There are three variations or approaches:
1. Free Markets,
2. Public-Choice or New Political Economy,
3. Market-friendly Approach.
137
1. The Free Market Approach
Assumes:
markets are efficient.
Competition is effective.
The state or Government intervention is
ineffective.
138
2. Public-Choice or New Political
Economy Approach
• Argues that governments can not solve economic
problems, since the state itself is dominated by
politicians, bureaucrats, that use power for selfish
ends.
• State officials extract “rents”, taking bribes, and
confiscate /take away or nationalize property, and
reduce freedom of citizens. Therefore, it is best to
minimize the role of governments.
•
139
3. The Market-friendly Approach
• This is the most recent variant of Neo-Classical Theory. It is
an
approach used by World Bank & IMF economists.
• This approach recognizes market imperfections, missing
markets, and externalities.
• Therefore, there is a need for government role in areas
such as providing public goods, developing market
supporting institutions or rules, and defining and
protecting property rights.
• The state or the government has a necessary role of being
an “impartial” referee in the economic game.
140
2. Contemporary Models of
Development & Under-
Development
•The new models of economic development have
broadened the scope for modeling a market in a
developing country
142
Sustainable livelihood approach: 1980
• The SL construct has emerged as "the
integration of population, resources,
environment and development in four
aspects:
1. stabilizing population;
2. reducing migration;
3. protecting of core exploitation; and
4. supporting long term sustainable resource
management.
143
Endogenous development
• Every region and every country has a certain
potential of its own
• Economic circuits are often limited in space
(local, regional)
• The world-market must not be considered as
the only outlet for products but must be
integrated into a wider economic philosophy
144
Endogenous vs. exogenous
development
Exogenous Endogenous
• The North as exclusive • Appreciating southern val-
model ues and local knowledge
• Orientation towards • Local, regional, national
the global market and global markets side by
• Primary aim: moderni- side
zation • Primary aim: autonomy in
• Result: dependency survival
from the outside world • Result: interaction with
outside world
145
Requirements
Endogenous development requires to be
compatible with a number of factors
• These factors can be seen in isolation, but in
reality they are all interrelated
• They comprise space (environment, local and
regional activity space) and society (social
organization, economic needs and cultural
life)
146
Compatibilities of endogenous
development
local/regional social
compatibility compatibility
Endogenous
development
cultural ecological
compatibility compatibility
economic
compatibility
147
The internal matters
148
Theory of Balanced Growth
• Fredrick List was first put forward the theory
of balance growth. According to him a balance
could be established among agriculture,
industries and service sectors.
165
166
167
Three Tier Structure
Core Periphery
Processes that incorporate higher Processes that incorporate lower levels
levels of education, higher salaries, of education, lower salaries, and
and more technology less technology
* Generate more wealth in the world * Generate less wealth in the world
economy economy
Semi-periphery
Places where core and periphery
processes are both occurring.
Places that are exploited by the
core but then exploit the periphery.
* Serves as a buffer between core and
periphery
168
Core Periphery Model
• Core Regions
– High levels of socioeconomic prosperity
– Dominant players in global economic game
Anglo America HDI .94
Japan and the South Pacific HDI .93
Western Europe HDI .92
• Periphery
– Poor regions
– Dependent on the core
169
– Do not have much control over their own affairs
170
Vicious circle theory
• Complex web of interlocking vicious circles
each of which constitutes a chain of cause and
effect relationships where one unfavorable
circumstance leads to another and produces
downward spiral
• High Birth Rate- Large Families-Low PCI-
Poverty- Low Output Per Worker
• Low PCI- Low Productivity- Poor Health-
Inadequate Housing
• Remedy --not reversible without massive aid
171
virtuous circle and vicious circle
• The terms virtuous circle and vicious circle
(also referred to as virtuous cycle and vicious
cycle) refer to complex chains of events which
reinforce themselves through a feedback loop.
• A virtuous circle has favorable results, while a
vicious circle has detrimental/unfavourable
results.
172
Which one is virtuous/vicious circle
173
174
Critics on vcp
• Saving depends on relative income.
• Personal savings small percentage of total
savings.
• Large-scale economies overrated/
overestimated. Market is ample for most goods.
• Economies of experience (how/what to
produce; ways of accessing to the international
markets) important
175
HRBA to Development
177
Economic growth and human right
• Economic growth: instrumental for the
realization of human rights. How?
180
Human right principles
Equality and Non-Discrimination
Participation and Inclusion
Accountability and Rule of Law
181
What causes underdevelopment?
Indicators/Measures of development
192
Dimensions of development
• Development is a multi-dimensional concept
in its nature, because any improvement of
complex systems, as indeed actual socio-
economic systems are, can occur in different
parts or ways, at different speeds and driven
by different forces.
193
• Economic development: i.e., improvement of the
way endowments and goods and services are used by
the system to generate new goods and services in
order to provide additional consumption and/or
investment possibilities to the members of the
system.
• Production, GDP/CAPITA; saving; investment; etc
• Human development: people-centred development,
where the focus is put on the improvement of the
various dimensions affecting the well-being of
individuals and their relationships with the society
(health, education, entitlements/rights, capabilities,
empowerment etc.)
194
• Territorial development: development of a specific
region (space-Region/country) achievable by
exploiting the specific socio-economic,
environmental and institutional potential of the
area, and its relationships with external subjects.
• Sustainable development: development which
considers the long term perspectives of the socio-
economic system, to ensure that improvements
occurring in the short term will not be
detrimental /harful to the future status or
development potential of the system
• i.e. development will be “sustainable” on
environmental, social, financial and other grounds.
195
• meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs”.
• Sustainable development implies minimising
the use of exhaustible resources. Land
degradation, due to soil erosion and
salinisation, persistent water and air pollution,
depletion of fish stock and deforestation are
all examples of consequences of non-
sustainable activities.
196
• Soil conservation practices; Good Agricultural
Practices (GAP) based on reduced use of energy,
pesticides and chemicals; waste management
and recycling, waste water treatment, use of
renewable energy sources such as biomasses and
solar panels, are frequently cited as techniques
for sustainable development.
• The concept of sustainability has also been
extended beyond environmental concerns, to
include social sustainability, i.e. long term
acceptance and ownership of development
changes by the citizens, their organisations and
associations (civil society), and financial and
economic sustainability.
197
DEVELOPMENT PARADIGMS
A number of possible development paradigms/MODELS/ or
examples are identified & used by countries/ institutions
Here are different but specific ways for achieving
development
198
• 2. Pro-poor (broad-based or balanced) growth-led
development.
• Growth matters for development only if associated with an
equitable distribution of income, to be achieved through the
promotion of activities generating a broad-based primary
income distribution and institutional mechanisms (e.g. fiscal
systems) ensuring an equitable secondary distribution of real
income, without necessarily relying on trickle-down
mechanisms. The poor directly are involved in devt works
5. Agriculture-based development.
Agricultural growth is seen as directly contributing to the
various dimensions of socio-economic development, not only
through its contributions to the general growth of the
economic system, but also for its specific contributions to
poverty reduction (in its small-scale version), resilience of
local communities, preservation of the environment etc.
200
6. Endogenous growth-based development.
• Technological changes required to support economic growth and by way
of consequence development don’t need to be “exogenous”, i.e.
generated from outside national socio-economic systems , for example,
by “learning-by-doing” processes generating knowledge and therefore
technology improvements.
• Emphasis is placed on policies favouring local processes, context-specific
technologies and the creation and maintenance of human capital.
201
• 8. Washington Consensus-based development.
• Development is only possible if countries are able to benefit from
the ‘globalised’ environment. They have to liberalise foreign trade,
privatise public assets, lower marginal tax rates and broaden the tax
base; keep public deficits tight, refrain from market interventions,
liberalise exchange and interest rates, allow free FDI. This will
complement domestic savings and bring about new ‘modern’
technologies. Countries which do not adjust their policies
accordingly are more likely to be marginalised from the
‘development’ mainstream.
202
10. Exhaustible-resource export-led development. Most oil-
mineral-timber endowed countries have enjoyed and are still
enjoying the possibility of accumulating financial resources to
start-up and feed development processes through the export
of primary resources. This is the type of development path
adopted by most oil producing countries for instance,
particularly in the Middle East and Africa.
203
12. Emigration-based development.
• Countries with a weak industrial sector may find themselves with
excess labour because the primary sector is not capable of
absorbing all the existing labour force even at subsistence wage
levels, due to the lack of complementary factors (e.g. capital,
infrastructures) and/or natural resources (land, water etc). Their
development (including their social stability) is substantially based
on consumption/accumulation mechanisms driven by remittances
of expatriated workers.
204
14. FDI-based development.
• A further consideration applies to financial sources that
may be used to fund capital accumulation to start up
and feed development processes. Further to funds from
exports, selected countries rely heavily on FDI; above
all when they are endowed with natural resources
(land, water, minerals, oil) and/or with cheap labour.
15. Foreign aid-based development.
• Whenever foreign aid is not fully absorbed by
immediate emergency-related consumption of
subsistence goods (e.g. staple food), selected countries
may attempt to kick-start their development process
using grants, either channelled to the country through
the funding of specific development projects or
through the public budget support.
205
• The above-mentioned paradigms are far from
being mutually exclusive, as several countries
have adopted and are adopting more than one
paradigm at a time, because they refer to
different phases of economic processes (funding,
production, trade), different dimensions of
development (economic, social) and having
different endowments and resources.
• For example, a country relying on Exhaustible-
resource export-led development may have also
adopted a Washington-consensus set of policies
concerning FDI, exchange rate and trade,
associated with a strong commitment to
promote rural development in selected areas.
206
Measuring development
207
208
MEASURING DEVELOPMENT LEVEL
What is the criterion for development?
1. The economic growth / income criterion:
GNP, GDP, rate of growth
• Simple and easy to use
• Yet does it really capture development?
• The level of income (or per capita income) is then be used to judge
the progress a nation makes over time.
210
The economic growth or income
criteria
These are the two most commonly used measures
for international comparisons :GDP and GNP.
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value
of all income (= value of final output) created
within the borders of a country, regardless of
citizenship
211
IDENTIFY GDP & GNP
1. The total income earned by an Ethiopian
national working in USA
IT is the GDP of----------
It is the GNP -------------
2. Income earned by an Indian citizen working in
Ethiopia.
GDP:
GNP:
212
GNP per capita = GNP
total population
213
GDP (gross domestic product) vs. GNP (gross
national product) – common measures of the
output of an economy:
• • GDP is defined as the sum of the value of finished goods and
services produced by a society in a given year
• note that the definition of GDP excludes intermediate goods (for
example, the steel used to produce a car is not included by itself in
GDP because it will be counted as part of the car)
• GDP considers all output produced within the borders of a country,
regardless of the citizenship of the producers
• GNP is similar to GDP but counts only the income of the citizens of
the country – thus, GNP does not include the income of foreign
citizens within the country but does include the income of its
citizens working outside the country
• although GDP is more commonly used to refer to the value of what
is produced while GNP is often refers to the value of what is
earned, we will use them interchangeably
214
Total nominal GDP = in PiQi
n :the no. goods and services produced;
P the price of each good (current market price)
Q the quantity of each good
Real GDP at base year’s prices
2008 GDP at 1992 prices = i1n Pi,1992 Qi,2008; i.e (the price of 1992 * the
total quantity of 2008)
Alternatively:
Real GDP = nominal GDP / GDP deflator
total nominal GDP in 2008 = US$3,337 million,
the price index for 2008 (deflator)= 331.7% ==3.317
1992, the base year deflator = 100
Then 2008 total GDP x 100 = US$3,337 million x 100
2008 Price Index 331.7
Or US$3,337 million /3.317 = US$1,006 million
215
• This implies 1 USD in 1992, due to inflation
becomes 3.317 USD in 2008
• That is 1 USD in 1992 = mean 3.317 USD in
2008
• What happened to the purchasing power of
money? Increased or decreased?
• To buy X item in 1992 you were needed only 1
USD , but for the same commodity, in 2008 you
need 3.317 USD.
216
Example 2. In a country GDP has increased
due to inflation (or rise in prices) from
1049.2 thousand dollars in 1993 to 1426.7
thousand dollars in 2000. Considering
1993 as base year, what is the GDP
deflator of this country? Interpret your
answer.
Interpretation: The rate of deflation/the
average increase of price of goods and
services in the country was about 135.9%
Or 1.359=1.4
218
GDP does not include:
• Intermediate goods which are sold from
one firm to another for immediate
transformation into other goods.
• financial transactions like buying stocks.
• purchases of used goods which have been
sold before.
• goods produced overseas by domestic
firms.
Three Methods for Calculating GDP
1. Production Method - The value added created
in all the sectors of the economy.
2. Expenditure Method - The sum of the
domestic spending on final goods (less/minus
domestic demand satisfied by imports).
3. Income Method – a method of calculating GDP
by adding together all incomes in the economy
• The Wage, Rent, Interest and Profit Income
generated by the domestic economy.
1. Income Method
• Survey domestic residents and calculate their
wage, income, interest income, rental income
plus the income of proprietors/owners of
small firms plus the profits & depreciation of
the corporate sector.
– Subtract net international income flows.
Income Method, Japan 2003
Items 2003
227
Example
• An economy was having a total GDP of 150
billion. Five years after the economy has grown
to 200 billion. What is the average annual rate of
growth of the economy?
• Assuming the rate remains unchanged, when will
this economy reach to 400 billion(double)?
228
Discussion
• If an economy is closed what would happen to
the level of GDP & GNP? Do they remain equal
or vary?
1.If closed, no interaction
2.Interaction with the rest of the world(ROW)
229
• If an economy were closed, GNP = GDP.
• when capital & labor flows across borders,
GNP & GDP diverge from one another.
– profits
– dividends
– interest payments
– worker remittances
• net income from the rest of the
world=income flows into the country from
the ROW – income leakages from the
country to the ROW
• If inflows > outflows, then GNP > GDP
• If inflows < outflows, then GDP > GNP
230
Problems of GDP/GNP
• Reliability of data?
– How accurate is the data that is collected?
• Distribution of income?
– How is the income distributed – does a small proportion of the population
earn a high percentage of the income or is income more evenly spread?
• Quality of life?
– Can changes in economic growth measure changes in the quality of life?
– Does additional earnings power bring with it additional stress, increases in
working hours, increased health and family problems?
• Impact of exchange rate?
– Difference in exchange rates can distort the comparisons – need to
express in one currency, but which one and at what value?
231
• Black/informal economy?
• Some economic activity not recorded –
subsistence farming and barter activity, for
example Some economic activity is carried out
illegally – building work ‘cash in hand’, drug
dealing, etc.
• Work of the non-paid may not be considered
but may contribute to welfare – charity work,
housework, etc.
232
value of home or non-market production
– Non-market activities left out:
• Home-baked cake vs. market bought cake
• Kindergarten care vs. home care
• Cleaning lady vs. self-cleaning
– Mostly women’s work –invisible work
– Yet very important
• Women’s unpaid activities estimated around 50% of global GDP
• they account for an important share of a population’s
consumption contributing to higher life standards.
• After all isn’t this what development is all about? Higher life
standards.
233
• Considering for environmental destruction:
• A number of productive activities that distract from quality of life,
– production of military weapons
– operations that cause environmental destruction of forests,
– production processes that
• emit toxic wastes into the air and water and then force society to
pay for their clean-up or
• which create health problems requiring remediation
These are still counted as positive contributions to the measured
level of GNP and GDP.
• Rather than adding to welfare, actually these are negative
externalities of the production process.
234
Ethiopian economic profile
Ethiopia/GNI per capita :1,890 PPP dollars (2017)
• GDP per capita : 767.56 USD (2017)
• Gross domestic product : 80.56 billion USD(2017)
• Population :81.19 million (2009)
235
HDI
• HDI – A socio-economic measure
• Focus on three dimensions of human welfare:
• Longevity – Life expectancy
• Knowledge – Access to education, literacy
rates
• Standard of living – GDP per capita:
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
236
237
238
HD Indices
• The HDI (Human Development Index)
- a summary measure of human development
239
Why the Human Development Index?
• It does not rely solely on income/wealth, it
gives an indicator of quality of life by including
health and education.
• By including education, for example, it gives an
indication of the country’s future development
potential. It reveals how a country uses its
wealth. For example, if a country has a high
GNP, but spends little on education, it will have
a low HDI.
240
HDI = 1/3 L + 1/3 E + 1/3 Y
E = Educational attainment
L = Life Expectancy /longevity
I = Income/GDP/capita
xi = E, L, I
E = 2/3 adult literacy rate (A) + 1/3 combined enrollment ratio (C)
Example:
max E = 100%; min E = 0%;
min L= 25 yrs; max L = 85 yrs
Max I=40000; min I 100
I= log (GDP per capita) – log (100)
log (40,000) – log (100)
241
EXAMPLE
242
HDI Calculation example
L = 73 – 25 = 0.807
85 – 25
(Education) Adult = 85.3 – 0 = 0.853, A max=100; actual=85.3
100 – 0
C = 69 – 0 = 0.690
100-0
E = 2/3(0.853) + 1/3 (0.690) = 0.798
243
COMPARISON
• The HDI is an index just as crude as GDP but it
stands for better things like health and education
• HDI aggregates health, education and income
• GDP:HDI: commodity-centred vs human-
centred
• Indicators need to be: relevant, internationally
comparable, available for many countries
• HDI--Neglected dimensions: gender, equity,
sustainability
244
• It puts emphasis again on economics , rather
than spiritual and moral development-
happiness- should suicide rates be used?
• It doesn’t include ecological concerns or the
quality of the living environment.
245
HDI World
HDI Africa
• The top five countries based on 2013 HDI were:
1) Norway
2) Australia
3) United States
4) Netherlands
5) Germany
• The category of “Very High Human Development" includes places like
Bahrain, Israel, Estonia and Poland.
• There is a category called "Medium Human Development" which includes
Jordan, Honduras, and South Africa.
• Countries with “Low Human Development” include Togo, Malawi and
Benin.
246
Adjustments to the HDI-Inequality
adjusted HD
• The gender-related development index: GDI
– takes into account the differences between
women and men on the values of the indicators
that enter the HDI.
• The human poverty index: HPI
– corrects for another weakness of HDI in that it
does not show what’s happening to the poorest
members of society.
– slightly different variables in the index – e.g. % of
people not using improved water sources; % of
children under five who are underweight, etc.
247
Differences
• As HDI/GDI measures average achievement,
the HPI measures deprivations
• HDI and GDI focus on national
averages
• HPI focuses on the worst off
(deprivational aspect)
248
Economic Growth and Equity:
Are they at odds or are they
•
complimentary?
If a country places emphasis on factors such as education, equity,
health, will this adversely affect growth?
• Or, if a country places emphasis on growth, how will that affect
equity?
• Kuznets, 1955:
– explores historical relation between per capita income and
income distribution for a number of countries.
– Finds an inverted U-shape; an empirically derived statistical
relationship.
– at low income levels economic growth and rising average
income tended to create more income inequality
– After a threshold level of income further economic growth and
even higher average income tended to reduce a nation’s overall
income inequality
249
Kuznets‘ Curve
0.6
Gini Coefficient
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Income per capita
250
Inequality might initially increase because:
• • industry pays a wage premium to workers hired away
from agriculture, and industry will hire more and more
of these workers
• • the growing capitalist class that owns industry might
take part of the industrial profit as income, instead of
investing it back into industry
following this rise, inequality might decrease because:
• • as still more workers are drawn into industry, the
wages in industry and agriculture eventually equalize
• • the monopoly power of the initial industrialists
decreases as industry becomes more competitive
• • human capital becomes more prevalent and becomes
distributed over a greater proportion of the population
251
Inequality and growth: lower inequality is
correlated with faster growth this may be due
to:
1) political stability – there is less demand for
harmful interventionist actions by the
government
2) a better distribution of education and a wider
distribution of skills
252
Physical Quality of Life (PQLI):
• PQLI was developed by Morris
• PQLI considers life expectancy, infant
mortality, and literacy (two health measures
and one education measure)
• What is its difference with HDI?
253
Social specific indicators
• Life Expectancy - is the average lifespan of someone
born in that country. The higher the life expectancy the
more developed the country.
• Birth Rate - Measures the number of babies born per
thousand people per year. The higher this is, the less
developed a country is supposed to be..
• Death rate: This is number of people who die per
thousand people per year. It will be a clear indicator of
the level of health care, quality of water, sanitation,
accommodation, and food supply.
• Adult Literacy - Is the percentage of the adult
population able to read and write.
• Infant Mortality - Measures the number of children
who die before they reach the age of one for every
thousand live births per year.
254
Human suffering index
The country is ranked from 0 to 10 for each of the following indicators (0 is
very good, 10 very bad):
1. Life expectancy
2. Daily calorie supply/lack
3. Access to clean water
4. Per capital income
5. Civil rights
6. Political freedom
7. Inflation
8. Communications system
9. Percentage in secondary school
10.Immunisation of infants
The countries scores are totalled and then ranked accordingly. The worst a
country could have is 100, the best 0.
• Using this score the worst countries would be Mozambique, Somalia and
Afghanistan whilst the best would be Denmark, The Netherlands and
Belgium.
255
Happy Planet Index
• Is an index of human well-being and environmental
impact that was introduced by the New Economics
Foundation (NEF) in July 2006.
• The index is designed to challenge well-established
indices of countries’ development, such as GDP and the
(HDI), which are seen as not taking sustainability into
account.
• In particular, GDP is seen as inappropriate, as the usual
ultimate aim of most people is not to be rich, but to be
happy and healthy.
• To what extent citizens are happy in their life?
256
theories and indicatirs of development 257
The quaternary sector consists of
those industries providing information services,
such as computing, ICT (information and
communication technologies), consultancy (offering
advice to businesses) and R&D (research,
particularly in scientific fields).
Quinary activities
Often referred to as 'gold collar' professions, they
represent another subdivision of the
tertiary sector representing special and highly paid
skills of senior business executives, government
officials, research scientists, financial and legal
consultants, et theories and indicatirs of development 258
CHAPTER FOUR
DEVELOPMENTAL STATE
Developmental state
• Mostly bred by experiences of Japan and
newly industralized economy’s from 1960s to
1980s
– choice of efficient, coherent, and flexible
economic policies
– effective implementation
Developmental state
• places top priority on economic development
– growth, productivity, and competitiveness
• actively intervene in market
– guide, discipline, and coordinate private sector
– strategic allocation of resources
– use of diverse policy instruments
• rational and competent bureaucrats
– Insulated/protected from political pressures
Paradigm
• Departure from traditional neoclassical
development strategies
– government intervene only to correct market
failure
– “Washington consensus” of US Treasury, IMF, and
World Bank
– free market, free trade, free capital mobility, and
limited government
Paradigm
• Deviation from “dependence” school of
thought
– integration into the international capitalist
division of labor
– developing economies at the periphery depend on
developed economies at the core
– developing economies are denied the opportunity
for self-sustained growth
Problematic premises
• Insulated bureaucrats make rational policies
– often not insulated: under political pressures
– often not rational: politicized
• Efficient, coherent, and consistent policies
• State policies determine economic
performance and outcomes
– supply-side factors, demand-side conditions,
corporate structure and strategy, luck, etc.
Case study 1
• Hong Kong and Singapore
– both are entry ports to mainland
– both are former British colonies
– both are mostly ethnic Chinese societies
• Profoundly different development strategies
• But, both invested heavily in human capital
and public spending to enhance international
competitiveness
Case study 2
• Hong Kong and the Philippines
– both are “weak” states
– difference in economic performance
• A weak state
– doesn’t necessarily lead to free market
– can be dominated by powerful economic interests
– creates opportunities for powerful economic
groups to manipulate and distort economy
Dependency theory
• International capitalist economy
– exploit weak third-world countries at the
periphery
– perpetuate poor nations’ dependence on rich
nations at the core
• Multinational corporations and foreign capital
play significant role in the economies of Hong
Kong and the Philippines, with different
consequences
Case study 3
• South Korea and India
• both states are strongly committed to
promoting economic growth
• both states had significant intervention in the
industrialization
– India was one of the first states in the developing
world to produce a detailed development plan
(1952)
Restriction on foreign capital
• South Korea and India
• both states restrict multinational corporations
and foreign capital
• different economic outcomes
– protection of domestic industries
– build up efficiency of domestic firms
– increase competitiveness of domestic firms
Different strategies
• Import-substituting industrialization
– tariff and non-tariff barriers to protect domestic
industries
• Export-oriented industrialization
– selective protection and free trade regime
• State intervention in financial and labor
market
• State-owned enterprises
Case study 4
• Firm size & competitive strategy
• Hong Kong and Taiwan
– small and medium enterprises
• China’s mainland
– township and village enterprises
• South Korea and Japan
– large integrated conglomerates
Strong states, weak states
theories and indicatirs of development 273
Poverty and inequality
• What is poverty? Condition where people's basic
needs for food, clothing, and shelter are not being
met.
• Poverty is generally of two types:
• (1) Absolute poverty: destitution occurs when people
cannot obtain adequate resources (measured in
terms of calories or nutrition) to support a minimum
level of physical health.
274
• (2) Relative poverty : the condition in which
people lack the minimum amount of income
needed in order to maintain the average standard
of living in the society in which they live.
• The relative position of some economic unit (e.g.
individual, household, racial group) compared to
another economic unit. A person can be relatively
poor but not absolutely poor
• Relative poverty is considered the easiest way to
measure the level of poverty in an individual
country.
275
• E.g. Economic growth will generally result in
a reduction of absolute poverty but will only
change relative poverty if there is a change in
distribution of income.
276
Absolute Poverty Lines
Poverty line measures signal to researchers where poverty is and becomes the
first place to start in analyzing poverty in a certain country, within a certain
economic group etc…..
(1) $1 a day and $2 a day lines that the World Bank and United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) use.
Both measures are absolute in that people can be lifted out of poverty if they can
increase income or calories and poverty can be eradicated.
Relative Poverty Lines
(i) Poverty:
Example: Research conducted on Poverty and Inequality in South
Africa 2004 – 2014, J P Landman has found that 46% of South
Africans live in poverty meaning an estimated 20,5 million in the
year 2000
(ii) Unemployment:
• Rate of unemployment in South Africa: 24%
Almost 100 000 people lost their jobs in 2009 due to recession
Why do we need Social Transformation / Change?
• 1. Elimination of poverty.
• 2. High literacy rate.
• 3. Social justice—equal distribution of
opportunities, gender equity.
• 4. Improvement in social welfare amenities.
• 5. A safe environment.
• 6. Opportunity for personal growth.
317
• 4. . The institutions and agencies of human rights
grow.
• 5. The value orientation of a modern person in a
developed society is more individual and family-
centred and not community-centred. What is to
be done or not to be done is determined only by
how much satisfaction the individual derives from
that action.
• 6. Customs and traditions become weak. The rate
of change in the context of social intercourse,
foodstuff, clothes and housing pattern is
accelerated. Food habits undergo change to
become more metropolitan and continental.
theories and indicatirs of development 318
• 7. Religions and the believers exist but
religious practices and rites seem to be on the
wane/diminishes.
• 8. People become more rational and less
superstitious and dogmatic.
319
3. Political Aspects:
• Democracy is the most acceptable form of
political system in the developed and
developing societies. Except a few countries
like Myanmar, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan,
which do not fall in the category of sound
democracies, most of the countries of the
world have democracy of one form or other.
320
• Some characteristics of political development
are:
• 1. Nation and nationhood develop.
• 2. Liberty to every citizen is ensured. People
enjoy freedom of speech, choice of
profession, practice of religion, etc.
• 3. The state is secular. It does not discriminate
one citizen from the other on the basis of
caste, creed, religion and region.
• 4. State seeks to guarantee equality among its
citizens
321
• 5. Consciousness about the human rights and
civil society develops with social development
and maturity of democracy. The state and the
non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
become concerned about these matters and
the welfare of citizens gains paramount
attention.
322
• It can easily be concluded from the above
discussion that human development is not
concerned with economic growth only but
encompasses the whole gamut/range of human
life. The political, cultural and social factors are
given as much importance as the economic
factors.
• Besides, a careful distinction is maintained
between ends and means of development. While
expansion of human options is regarded as the
criteria of development, the expansion of income is
treated as an essential means to it. The entire
process has been made anthropocentric.—human
centered 323
END
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