TRANSPORTATION NETWORK OF POKHARA

SUB -METROPOLITIAN CITY

PRESENTED BY:
DRISTI PANDEY (069/MSE/553)
PRAVA THAPA (069/MSE/558)
SAURABHA SHAKYA (069/MSE/563)
TIMILA BAJRACHARYA (069/MSE/565)
TRANSPORTATION IN NEPAL
Due to the landscape of
the country, roadways
and airways are the
only modes of
transport in the
country.
Railways have not been

able to develop
because of the
mountainous land
surface. So, Nepal
transport system is
mainly concentrated on
its roads.

 About 15 national highways in the country

 The total length of roads -28,000 kilometers.
 There are 42 domestic airports in the country.
 The international airport at Kathmandu .
TRANSPORTATION IN POKHARA
 Types of buses under operation in pokhara
 Mini Micro Buses
 Micro Buses
 Big Buses

Types of Services provided

a) Urban/ Suburban Services
b) Flexible Bus Services

vehicles Buses, trucks Jeeps, cars Tractors and motorcycles

Year
and tractors and vans power tillers
1992 4481 836 1554 309 1780
1999 16500 1988 3476 867 9897

Table 1:Number of Vehicles in Pokhara

POKHARA BUS ENTERPRENEURS ASSOCIATION

 Is a leading public transport Service provider in pokhara.

 Established on 2049B.S. and its main office is situated at Sita Tole,
Pokhara-9.
 It was initially set up to provide transport services within Pokhara valley

only.
 The facilities of the organization also cover the rural villages like Kahu.
Altogether 251 buses in this organization which run to a fixed route and

schedule
Bus services are runned to a specific timetable giving specific times of

departure and arrival at waypoints along the route.

The bus owners are contracted to pokhara Bus Entrepreneurs

Association and it operates the buses on behalf of the authorities

In this organization, transport services are subjected to legal control of

government policy in terms of vehicle safety standards, and the level of

fares charged and routes operated.
 Total 10 route inside
Pokhara

Year Number of Buses

2064 167
2065 167
2066 167
2067 227
2068 227
2069 251
  Time of Operation
 Bus services of the organization are normally implemented for
operation in the time duration of 6 am to 8 pm. However, during
special occasion (festivals, fair etc.) late night services are also
provided as per the situation.

Categorization of Consumers
 General
 Childrens ( below 5 yrs)
 Students
 Disabled
 Others
There is discount for children, students and disable peoples on bus
fares depending upon their identification card.
 NEED OF OPTIMIZATION
 Pokhara has annual population growth rate of 5.6%.
 cities are facing serious environmental problem due to
growing air pollution caused by fuels used in vehicles.
 There must be proper management of the public transport
system, if public transport is to play a significant role in the
life of a city.
 Number of buses used for public transportation is fixed
randomly by the Bus Association without detailed study about
the number of people using the public transport within the
city.
 As a result , there is inadequate public buses in some routes
and some routes have more buses
 So optimizing the number of buses needed for each area
according to the population distribution of the region.
 This will lead to efficient management of the system and also
help gain more profit from public transportation.
 OBJECTIVES

 The forecast of the number of buses required for further

years.
 Calculate actual number of buses required
 Optimize the Shortest path
 METHODOLOGY

Data Requirement:
 Data collected through survey

 Interview with head of Pokhara bus

entrepreneur association
 Available reports/journal collect through

Pokhara bus entrepreneur association

Calculation Method used:

 Forecasting

 Regression

 Optimization

 Shortest path
Forecasting:
 Forecasting or Time series forecasting is the use of a model

to forecast future events based on known past events to

predict data points before they are measured.
 E.g:predicting the opening price of a stock based on its past

performance.
 Plotted via line charts.
Regression:
•A modeling technique for analyzing the relationship between a
continuous (real-valued) dependent variable Y and one or more
independent variables X1,X2,…Xk.
•The goal in is to identify a function that describes , as closely as
possible , the relationship between these variables so that we can
predict what value the dependent variable will assume given
specific values for the independent variables.
•Examples of application includes:
•Calculating the best possible value of the given data
•estimating an errors in the calculations
•comparison of the given data with the estimated result.
 Transportation problem:
 generalized network flow problem in which products
are supplied to certain number of destination in such
a way as to maximize profit and minimize the cost.
 The objective in a transportation problem is to fully
satisfy the destination requirements within the
operating production capacity constraints at the
minimum possible cost.

 Shortest Path Problem:

 The route or path with least cost through out the
network from a starting node to an ending node is
determined.
 The objective is to find the set of edges of
connecting all the nodes such that the sum of the
edge length from the root to each node is minimized.
 RESULTS AND FINDINGS

Data of Population of Pokhara

• Data of year 2057 B.S was taken from CBS.

• Annual population growth rate :5.6%.
• Forecasting: Population of Pokhara from the year 2064 B. S
to 2070 B.S

Data of total no of buses in each year

• Total number of buses that are providing service in Pokhara

from the year 2064 B.S to 2070 B.S is taken from Pokhara
Bus Entrepreneurs Association
 NEED OF OPTIMIZATION

number of buses that

are needed to be
added on the basis
population of Pokhara

Buses added each year

between the year
2064 B.S to 2070 B.S
ACTUAL VS PREDICTED NUMBER OF BUSES
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
Number of Buses

210 Number of Buses

200 Predicted Number of Buses
190 Linear (Predicted Number of Buses)

180
170
160
150
140
130
2063 2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070

Year
 FORECASTING NUMBER OF BUSES
400

350 357

300

250
Number of buses

Bus added
200

150

100

50

0
2062 2064 2066 2068 2070 2072 2074 2076

Year in B.S

Forecasting increasing trend of number of buses upto year 2075

B.S(using linear regression technique)
 Correlation between number of buses and population of
Pokhara
Data between number of buses and population of Pokhara are
correlated by 99.30%

 Data of public transport routes of Pokhara:

The data of public transport including the total distance of
each route, average round trip per day, total number of buses
in each route, total nodes in each route, bus fare between all
nodes.
  total number of frequency of bus
buses required in needed at
a day different time in a
particular route

Calculations
 Time distribution of population of each ward:

Total time of Service: 14 hours a day from 6a.m to 8 p.m.

The population distribution of each ward at different time interval was

calculated.

Total seven time slots of 2 hours were selected.

Each slot were given percentage weightage on the basis of important

landmarks, school, colleges, major tourist destination and governmental
offices.
Locating Nodes in map
• location of each ward is separated
• Population of each node: average of total number of nodes in a
particular ward

Effective population of each node

• Population of people in a particular node that use public
transporatation.
• The data of population that use private vehicles and the population
that do not use public transportation in a particular node was
deducted.
Calculation of number of routes per nodes

 There are many nodes at which buses from more than one
route provide service.

 Number of passenger in a particular route from a node was

taken by calculating average values in all routes from a
node.
 Average Passsengers in each route

Route 10:-Miyapatan to Harichowk

Route 9:-Manipal to Sahidchowk, Belghari

c.Manipal to khaundada

b.Manipal to Tutunga

Route 8:-a.Manipal to fulbari chowk

Route 7:-Camping chowk to kaunkhola 6 a.m- 8 a.m

8a.m- 10a.m
Route 6:-Simpani to eye hospital
10a.m-12noon
Route 5:-Simpani to chauthe
12noon-2p.m
Route 4:-Bagar to Khaltemasina
2p.m-4p.m
d.Jogmani to Sahidchowk 4p.m-6p.m
c.Bhunpure to Bagar 6p.m-8p.m

b.Bagar to Khaltemasina

Route 3: a.Bagar to lamachaur

Route 2: Bagar to chhorepatan

Route 1:Bagar to fewa taal

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

 
Optimization of number of buses needed at a particular route

 The total number of bus currently operated by Pokhara Bus

Entrepreneur Association is 251.

 The calculation of number of buses needed in each route was done

to find out whether addition or reduction is needed in total number
of buses under service at present situation.

 Calculation was done at occupancy rate of 30 people per bus.

 The total number of buses needed in a day at a particular route was

calculated.
 the total number of buses must be deducted to maximize the profit.

Average Number of Buses required Vs Buses Available

Route 10:-Miyapatan to Harichowk

Route 9:-Manipal to Sahidchowk, Belghari
8c.Manipal to khaundada
8b.Manipal to Tutunga
Route 8:-a.Manipal to fulbari chowk
Average buses
Route 7:-Camping chowk to kaunkhola required
Route 6:-Simpani to eye hospital
Route 5:-Simpani to chauthe
Route 4:-Bagar to Khaltemasina
3d.Jogmani to Sahidchowk buses
available/day
3c.Bhunpure to Bagar
3b.Bagar to Khaltemasina
Route 3: a.Bagar to lamachaur
Route 2: Bagar to chhorepatan
Route 1:Bagar to fewa taal

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Optimization of number of buses needed at different time slots:

 Total number of buses in a day was evenly distributed at regular time

interval.

 Total passenger utilizing the public transport is not same throughout

the day.

 Maximum number of Passenger use public transport during office

time which is between time interval 8a.m to 10a.m in the morning and
4p.m to 6p.m in the evening.

 Similarly, at nodes which have colleges, maximum people use public

transport from 6a.m to 8a.m.

 Optimization is done to determine the number of buses required

between time slots of two hours in each route.
Time distribution of number of buses required in route 1 and route 2

4.5

3.5

2.5

2
Route 1:Bagar to fewa taal
1.5 Route 2: Bagar to chhorepatan

0.5

0
Time distribution of number of buses required in route 3

3.5

2.5

1.5 Route 3: a.Bagar to lamachaur

Route 3b.Bagar to Khaltemasina
1 Route 3d.Jogmani to Sahidchowk

0.5

0
  
Time distribution  of number of buses required in route 4, route 5 and
route 6  
 
4.5

3.5

2.5

2
Route 4:-Bagar to Khaltemasina
Route 5:-Simpani to chauthe
1.5
Route 6:-Simpani to eye hospital
1

0.5

0
Time distribution of number of buses required in route 7, and route 8

4
Route 7:-Camping chowk to kaunkhola
3 Route 8:-a.Manipal to fulbari chowk
Route 8b.Manipal to Tutunga
2

0
Time distribution of number of buses required in route 9and route 10

5  

Route 9:-Manipal to Sahidchowk,

3 Belghari
Route 10:-Miyapatan to Harichowk
2

0
CALCULATION OF SHORTEST DISTANCE BETWEEN NODES
 Optimization of shortest path between Bagar and Birauta is done using
solver.
 The shortest possible travel distance between Bagar to Birauta is 4270m.
 

Network map showing shortest distance between nodes

 CALCULATION OF MAXIMUM PASSENGER BETWEEN TWO
NODES
 The maximum number of passenger that can be provided service between
Bagar to Birauta is optimized.

The maximum number of population is 3402.

Netmork map showing routes that covers maximum

number of passengers between nodes
 CONCLUSION

 Forecasting of the required number of buses explains that Pokhara

Bus Entrepreneurs Association need to add 106 (375 in total)
number of buses with in 2075 if they want to increase in present
ratio.
 But, Optimization explains that we can reduce 17 number of buses
in present scenario; number of passenger and route being
constrain.
 Moreover,8 am to 10 noon and 4pm to 6pm is the peak time
intervals where the people’s transitions is very high. If we manage
required number buses in peak hour and off hour accordingly, the
buses required could be further minimize.
 In route of Bagar to Birauta, we found different path, we analyse it
by two ways i.e
- shortest path route
- Covering maximum population
 LIMITATIONS

 Difficulties in regular visit to site (Pokhara) so that field

survey become limited.
 Time frame needed to this project requires more than
provided.
 This report includes assumption about weightage of
population in each route.
 Report had excluded taxi micro buses.
THANK YOU!!!