Basic Demographic Concepts

and Measures, Fertility

Dr. Kudzaishe Mangombe

Centre for Population Studies

University of Zimbabwe
 Basic Demographic Concepts and
Measures
 Initial population - P(0)
 End of period
population – P(t)
 Births - (B)
 Deaths - (D)
 In-migration - (I)
 Out-Migration - (O)
 Population Change
 Average Annual
Increase
 Percentage Change
 Growth Rate
 Doubling Time

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 Basic Demographic Concepts and
Measures …
 P[t] = P([0]) + B – D + I -O
 Population Change = P[t] – P[0]
 Average Annual Increase = Population change
Interval (n)
 Percent Change = Population Change *100
P[0]
 Growth Rate = Average Annual Increase /P[0]
 Doubling Time = 1/r *ln (2)

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 Basic Demographic Concepts and
Measures …
 Demographic Balancing Equation
P[T] = P[0] + B - D + I - O
 CBR [O,T] = Number of births in the population between
time O and time T/ Mid-year or average population
between time O and time T.
 CDR [O,T] = Number of deaths in the population
between time O and time T/ Mid-year or average
population between time O and time T.

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 Basic Demographic Concepts and
Measures …
 CRIM [O,T] - Number of in-migrations into the
population between time O and time T/ Mid-year or
average population between time O and time T.
 CROM [O,T] = Number of out-migrations from the
population between time O and time T/ Mid-year or
average population between time O and time T.
 All rates are expressed as per 1,000 population.

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 Basic Demographic Concepts and Measures
…
 Net Migration = I - O
 Gross Migration = I + O
 Natural Increase = B - D
 Crude Rate of Natural Increase = CBR - CDR
 Crude Rate of Net Migration = CRIM - CROM
 Crude Growth Rate = CBR - CDR + CRIM - CROM

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 Population Variables
 Any population size is affected by three variables
namely:
i) Fertility
ii) Mortality
iii) Migration

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 FERTILITY
 Fertility - refers to the number of live births that
occur to a woman in a population.
 Fecundity – physical capability of giving birth/ to
reproduce.
 A fecund person can produce children whereas an
infecund (sterile) person cannot.
 Fecundity refers to the physiological capacity or
potential to produce a live birth whereas Fertility
refers to the actual number of live children produced
by a woman.
 Reproduction – the process by which new members
of a population replace outgoing members (fertility
and mortality)
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 FERTILITY …

 Fertility - refers to the number of children born to

women (Weeks 2002 ) i.e. live births that occur to a
woman in a population.
 Fertility composed of two parts:
 Biological
 Social

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 FERTILITY – Biological Component
 Fecundity
 The physiological ability to reproduce or the
capacity to conceive/give birth.
 If a woman is incapable of producing a live birth,
then she is infertile.
 If a woman is incapable of becoming pregnant, then
she is sterile.

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 FERTILITY – Biological Component …
 A fecund woman may not be fertile, but a fertile
woman is always fecund.
N.B. Opposite of fecund is sterile.
 Fecundity not main concern to teenage women as
they enjoy sexual relations.
 Many teenage women engaging in unprotected
sexual intercourse on the mistaken belief that they
are too young to get pregnant (Weeks 1996).
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 Fertility – Biological Component …

 Age at Menarche
 Onset of menstruation.
 The age when a girl has her first menstrual
period.
 Usually occurs in the early teens.
 Age at menarche – reduced as compared to the
80’s.

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 Fertility – Biological Component …
 Menopause
 When a woman has stopped menstruating.

 Menopause varies from person to person.

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 Fertility – Biological Component …
 Reproduction – the process by which new members
of a population replace outgoing members (fertility
and mortality)
 Reproductive period - Menarche Menopause
(15 – 49)

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 Fertility – Biological Component …
 Process of having a live birth starts with coitus or
sexual intercourse.
 Fecund woman produces an ovum during the
ovulation process.
 The ovum is then released, and is then fertilised by a
sperm.

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 Fertility – Biological Component …
 After that, conception occurs – beginning of
pregnancy.
 The product of conception is the foetus.

 It takes 280 days (9 months) for the foetus to

mature.

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 Fertility – Biological Component …
 Menstrual Cycle
 If a woman has a regular cycle of 28 days and a
menstrual period which lasts 5 days, then the 18th
day is assumed as the day of ovulation.
 If sexual intercourse occurs before ovulation, the
sperm may survive.
 The safe period is estimated to be 20 days at a
regular cycle from the 21st day up to the 8th day.
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 Fertility – Biological Component …
 Natural Fertility
 Level of reproduction that exists in the absence of
deliberate birth control (Weeks 1996)
 Assuming that a woman can bear children in a 35-year
span between ages 15-49, and that each pregnancy lasts
less than 9 months (accounting for losses such as
miscarriages), then
 Every woman would bear a child every 2.2 years for a
potential of 16 children per woman (Bongaarts 1978).
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 Fertility – Biological Component …
 In order for a live birth to occur, a woman must pass
through 3 stages:
 Sexual intercourse

 Conception must occur

 Must successfully complete the period of pregnancy

(gestation) and give birth to a child.

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 Fertility Analysis
 Davies and Black (1956) came up with the
Intermediate variables which have a direct effect on
fertility.
 These are variables known as proximate
determinants of fertility.
 They also argued that the socio-cultural and
biological factors also affect fertility indirectly.

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 Fertility Analysis …
 Intercourse Variables
1. Age at first sexual activity/sexual debut – the longer a
woman waits to begin engaging in sexual relations, the
fewer the children because of the shorter time she will be
at risk of bearing children.
2. Permanent celibacy - proportion of women never entering
marriage. The greater the women in a society who do not
marry, the lower the level of fertility.
3. Time between unions – sexual intercourse more regular in
a marriage than in unions broken by divorce, separation or
desertion, OR by death of husband.
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 Fertility Analysis …
 Factors that Govern Exposure to Intercourse within
union:
4. Voluntary abstinence – way of limiting risk of
pregnancy within a marriage, but is unpopular/not
practical.
 Postpartum – refers to “after birth”
 Postpartum amenorrhea – a period of temporary
sterility soon after birth (1 or 2 months).
 Postpartum taboos in some societies where sexual
intercourse is forbidden while a mother is
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 Fertility Analysis …
5. Involuntary abstinence – due to impotence, illness,
unavoidable but temporary separation.
6. Coital frequency within a union (excluding periods
of abstinence).
7. Involuntary fecundity
 Due to untreated diseases such as gonorrhea
 Nutrition – woman may experience amenorrhea –
absence of ovulation in a woman.

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 Fertility Analysis …
8. Contraception – use or non-use
 Female barrier methods – e.g. intrauterine devices
(IUD), female condom; diaphragm; spermicidal forms,
jellies/creams; a disposable sponge; and the douche.
 Female chemical methods – e.g. pill, morning after
pill
 Natural means – breastfeeding, withdrawal, periodic
abstinence
 Traditional - use of herbs, abstinence, withdrawal

9. Voluntary Infecundity:
 Sterilisation
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 Fertility Analysis …
 Gestation Variables:
10.Fetal mortality from involuntary causes
 Spontaneous abortions
 Miscarriages which are not instigated by a woman
 Still births
11.Fetal mortality from voluntary causes -
 Induced abortions deliberately provoked by a pregnant
woman or some other people
 Legal abortions – if there is risk to the woman
 Voluntary fetal mortality
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 Fertility Analysis …

 Fertility analysis is more complex than mortality

analysis:
 Human fertility involves two individuals of opposite
sex
 Fertility is not universal in the female population
 Multiple aspects of giving birth
 Giving birth is a repeatable event

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 Fertility Analysis …
 Live born infants are the occurrence of interest
 Most commonly related to women
 Fertility analysis involves studying behaviour of
subgroups of the female population (age, marital
status, parity)
 Because of the repeatable process, we can not use
life table methods for the whole process

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 Measurement of Fertility
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
 General Fertility Rate (GFR)
 Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
 Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)

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 Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
 CBR - The annual number of births for a given year
divided by the total mid-year population
- CBR = (Births/Total Population) x 1,000
- The births are usually expressed per 1,000 persons

 Advantage
- Easy to compute

 Disadvantages
- It is the least informative measure of fertility
- It conceals fertility patterns by age
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 General Fertility Rate (GFR)
 Uses information about the age and sex structure of
a population, specifically who has been at risk of
having births.
 It is the total number of births in a year divided by
the number of women in the childbearing ages:
GFR = (Total live births/Total midyear population of
women aged 15-49)*1,000

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 Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
 Fertility of women of specified ages usually in the
reproductive ages.
 It is usually calculated in 5 year age groups.
 It is very useful in pointing to meaningful differences in
the fertility behaviour of various population age groups.
ASFR = bi * kPI
Where: bi = Number of births registered during the year to women in the
age interval i
Pi = Mid-year population of women in the same age group
k = Constant = 1,000
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 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
 Average number of children a woman would bear if
she survived through the end of the reproductive age
span and experienced at each age a particular set of
ASFRs.
 Gives the total number of children expected to be
born by a woman provided that she is exposed to
prevailing ASFRs.
 The total number of all ASFR multiplied by 5 (age
range/interval).
TFR = Ʃ (ASFR x 5)
 It is a measure of completed family size.
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 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
 Average number of daughters a woman would bear if
she survived through the end of the reproductive age
span and experienced at each age a particular set of
age specific fertility rates.
 Is a simple modification of the TFR where the ASFRs
are calculated on the basis of female births only.
 Rationale – Women are the ones who bear children
and hence we would want to know the extent to
which the women of today are producing daughters
to bear children in the next generation.
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 Gross Reproduction Rate …
 It is used to calculate replacement levels.
 A rate of less than 1 means that women are not
replacing themselves.
 GRR = TFR x Female births/All births
 When female births are not given:
i. Calculate the sex ratio at birth, males/females (105
males and 100 females).
ii. Calculate female births = births at age x to x+n
1*(1+sex ratio)

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 Gross Reproduction Rate …

Limitation
 Not all babies born will survive to bear children –
some will die in infancy and others throughout their
reproductive ages.

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 Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
 Employed to control the effects of mortality.
 It is the number of daughters a woman would bear
provided she is subjected to all sets of prevailing age
specific fertility and mortality rates.
 Since it allows for the fact that some female infants
will die before reaching the end of their reproductive
life, the NRR is always smaller than GRR.
 An NRR of 1 indicates that the each generation of
females has the potential to just replace itself.
 Indicates a generation that will eventually stop
growing if fertility and mortality do not change.
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