IPCC Synthesis Report

Part III - David Griggs

• Inertia in climate, ecological and socio-

economic systems
• Impact of stabilization scenarios on climate and
corresponding impacts
• Abrupt, high impact threshold/ non-linear
events
 Inertia is a widespread characteristic of climate,
ecological and socio-economic systems

• Time scale is the time taken for a perturbation in a

process to show at least half of its final effect
• Inertia means a delay, slowness, or resistance in the
response of climate, biological, or human systems to
factors that alter their rate of change, including
continuation of change in the system after the cause
of that change has been removed
There is a wide range of time scales associated with the
climate, ecological and socio-economic systems
There are fast and slow processes in the
carbon cycle
Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused
by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of
land ice and ice sheets
 CO2 concentrations, temperature and sea level
continue to rise long after emissions are reduced
 Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of CO2
will require emissions reductions globally
Stabilization Level Date for Global Date for global
(ppm) emissions to peak emissions to fall
below current
levels
450 2005-2015 2000-2040
550 2020-2030 2030-2100
650 2030-2045 2055-2145
750 2050-2060 2080-2180
1000 2065-2090 2135-2270
These dates are associated with CO2 stabilization alone –
stabilization of CO2 equivalent concentrations need to occur even
earlier because of the contribution of the non- CO2 greenhouse gases
 Constant emissions of CO2 do not lead to
stabilization of atmospheric concentrations
 Global terrestrial net uptake of carbon peaks
during the 21st century then levels off or declines
The 1:1 relationship between GDP and CO2
emissions can be de-linked
Historical rates of changes
in energy intensity are
consistent with those
needed for stabilization of
CO2 concentrations from
450-1000 ppm
Historical rates of changes
in carbon intensity are far
slower than those needed
for stabilization of CO2
concentrations from 450-
1000 ppm.
Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide will require significant emissions
reductions
There is a wide band of uncertainty in the amount
of warming that would result from any stabilised
concentration of greenhouse gases
10Temperature change relative to 1990 (C) 10 Temperature change relative to 1990 (C )
9 Temperature 9
8 change in the 8 Temperature
7 year 2100 7 change at
6 6
equilibrium
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
450 550 650 750 850 950 1000 450 550 650 750 850 950 1000

Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm) Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
The risks of climate change damages increase
with the magnitude of climate change
 Some climate, ecological and socio-economic
system changes are effectively irreversible over
many human lifetimes, and others are intrinsically
irreversible

• The thermohaline circulation

• Ice sheets

• Migration of plant species

The themohaline circulation could be disrupted
by climate change
 Adaptation is a necessary strategy to
complement climate change mitigation efforts

• Adaptation and mitigation can contribute to

sustainable development objectives
• Mitigation actions to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions would lessen the pressure on natural and
human systems
• The lower the level of stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations the greater the benefits in terms of
avoided damage
• Comprehensive, quantitative estimates of the benefits
of stabilization at various levels do not yet exist
• The lower the magnitude and rate of change, the less
chance there is of crossing thresholds