Overview of Climate

Change Impacts

David A Warrilow
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Climate change and

sustainable development
New Delhi, 7-8 April 2006
Widespread impacts on the natural world
already evident
• Widespread melting of glaciers
globally
• Increased river flow into the
Arctic
• 8% loss of Arctic sea-ice in last
decade
• Melting permafrost
• Rising sea levels 1-2 cm per
decade
• Earlier spring activity in plants
and animals
Recent economic losses substantial
UK floods, autumn 2000
• Insured loss £1bn
European floods 2002
• 37 deaths
• $16bn direct costs
European heat-wave 2003
• 35,000 deaths approx
• $13.5bn direct costs
Caribbean Hurricanes 2005
• More than 2000 deaths
• $76bn insured loss alone
Hurricane Wilma, courtesy of NOAA
• $300bn economic losses
 Extreme events are increasing in
size/frequency

• European hot summer

of 2003
• over 35,000 deaths
• risk of such a summer
2-4 times greater with
greenhouse gases.
Hadley Centre
Temperatures are predicted to continue to
rise (1.4 to 5.8C by 2100, IPCC AR3)

Observed and
predicted
European summer
temperatures.
2003 type heat-
waves will be
common by 2040
Impacts of climate change will be severe and widespread
For India we found:
• marked increase in both rainfall
and temperature over the 21st
century projected.
• maximum increases in rainfall (10
to 30%) may occur over central
India.
• temperatures projected to
increase by 3 to 4C towards the
end of the century.
• but behaviour of monsoon not
Change in annual mean surface
temperature by the 2080s compared to well simulated.
1961-1990, from the IPCC A2 scenario.
Climate Change a will affect all sectors and countries
Agriculture vulnerable to temperature
increases and rainfall changes
• A 2 C rise in temperature
decreases Indian wheat yield
- Up to 6% in sub tropical areas
- 17-18% in tropical areas
• For rice a 2 C rise projected to
reduce yields by 10-16% and a
4°C rise led to a 21-30%
reduction.
• Sensitivity to monsoon
- 19% rainfall deficit in 2002
reduced Indian GDP by 3%
 Human Health also vulnerable

• More incidences of
malaria in areas that are
already malaria-prone,
and introduced into new
areas.
• Sensitive to the arrival of
the monsoon.
Transmission Window of Malaria in different
states of India
a) base case, b) with climate change
 Sea-Level rise and storm surges

Indian study showed:

• Mean sea level rise for
Mumbai slightly less than
1mm/year and a possible
decrease at Chennai, but no
info on land movements.
• Storm surges show
increase in number of high
surges under climate
change.
• Cyclone frequency and
strength increases in the Frequency Distribution of Maximum surges
Bay of Bengal, particularly in associated with each cyclone (2050)
the post-monsoon period.
Climate system instabilities
• far reaching effects
• tipping points hard to predict
Examples:
• Ocean circulation
• Ice sheet behaviour
• Carbon Cycle
• Methane Hydrates
• Acidification
• Population crashes
The direct effects of CO2
• CO2 affects the acidity of
the ocean – it is already
increasing. Negative
impacts on coral reefs
and plankton and hence
the food chain. May also
affect the carbon cycle.
• CO2 helps plants to
grow, but quality of yield
may be reduced. But
growth also limited by
water and nutrient
availability.
 Impacts depend strongly on socio-
economic development pathway.
• Project developed four socio-economic scenarios in line with national plans for
development, and associated projections for population and economic growth

Framework for visions of

socio-economic change for India
Adaptation an essential but limited
response
• Adaptation recognised
as an essential
response but not a
substitute for mitigation
• No one solution
• Not an easy option
• Easier for new build
• It has its limits
Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Climate
Change - Exeter conference 2005
• For different levels of climate
change what are the key
impacts?
• What would such levels of
climate change imply in terms of
greenhouse gas stabilisation
concentrations and emission
pathways required to achieve
such levels?
• What options are there for
achieving stabilisation of
greenhouse gases at different
stabilisation concentrations in
the atmosphere?
See www.stabilisation2005.com
How much climate change is too much?
1-2 C Above pre- Major impacts on ecosystems and species; wide
industrial ranging impacts on society, including
developing county agriculture.
1.5 – 3 C Greenland ice-cap starts to melt irreversibly (7 m)

2-3C Major loss of coral reef ecosystem; considerable

species loss; large impacts on agriculture; water
resources; health; economies.

General increase in droughts and extreme

rainfalls as temperature increases. Up to 88cm
sea level rise in next 100 years.

2-3C Terrestrial carbon sink becomes a source.

1-4 C North Atlantic circulation collapses

2 - 4.5 C West Antarctic ice sheet collapses (5 m)

Stabilisation requires urgent pro-active measures

(A 2)
al
s usu
essa
u sin
B
Stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations and climate system inertia
Conclusions
• Climate change impacts are already being seen
• Climate change will affect all sectors and all countries
• Above 1-3 C rise many impacts could become critical.
• System changes could generate major impacts but hard to
predict.
• Sea level rise a significant long term issue
• Ocean acidification a serious direct impact of CO2
• Adaptation essential – but has its limits
• Need to limit climate change – 2 C?
• Without stabilisation of greenhouse gases at a level which
avoids dangerous anthropogenic climate change
sustainable development will not be possible