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McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Concepts and Skills
Understand how exchange rates are quoted and what
they mean
Know the difference between spot and forward rates
Understand purchasing power parity and interest rate
parity and the implications for changes in exchange
rates
Understand the basics of international capital
budgeting
Understand the impact of political risk on
international business investing
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter Outline
20.1 Terminology
20.2 Foreign Exchange Markets and Exchange Rates
20.3 Purchasing Power Parity
20.4 Interest Rate Parity, Unbiased Forward Rates, and
the International Fisher Effect
20.5 International Capital Budgeting
20.6 Exchange Rate Risk
20.7 Political Risk
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
20.1 Terminology
American Depository Receipt (ADR): a security issued in the
U.S. to represent shares of a foreign stock
Cross rate: the exchange rate between two foreign currencies,
e.g., the exchange rate between £ and ¥
Euro (€): the single currency of the European Monetary
Union which was adopted by 11 Member States on 1 January
1999. These member states were: Belgium, Germany, Spain,
France, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, Finland, Austria, Portugal
and the Netherlands
Eurobonds: bonds denominated in a particular currency and
issued simultaneously in the bond markets of several
countries
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Terminology
Eurocurrency: money deposited in a financial center
outside the home country. Eurodollars are dollar
deposits held outside the U.S.; Euroyen are yen
denominated deposits held outside Japan.
Foreign bonds: bonds issued in another nation’s
capital market by a foreign borrower
Gilts: British and Irish government securities
LIBOR: the London Interbank Offer Rate is the rate
most international banks charge one another for
loans of Eurodollars overnight in the London market
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
20.2 Foreign Exchange Markets and
Exchange Rates
Without a doubt, the foreign exchange market is the
world’s largest financial market.
In this market, one country’s currency is traded for
another’s.
Most of the trading takes place in a few currencies:
U.S. dollar ($)
British pound sterling (£)
Japanese yen (¥)
Euro (€)
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FOREX Market Participants
The FOREX market is a two-tiered market:
Interbank Market (Wholesale)
About 700 banks worldwide stand ready to make a
market in Foreign exchange.
Nonbank dealers account for about 20% of the market.
There are FX brokers who match buy and sell orders but
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Cross Rates
Suppose that SDM(0) = .50
i.e., $1 = 2 DM in the spot market
and that S¥(0) = 100
i.e., $1 = ¥100
What must the DM/¥ cross rate be?
DM $ DM
since ,
¥ ¥ $
DM $1 DM 2 DM 1
¥ ¥100 $1 ¥50
S DM / ¥ (0) .02 or DM1 ¥50
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Triangular Arbitrage
Suppose we
observe these $
Barclays Credit
banks posting Lyonnais
these exchange S¥(0) = 120
S£(0) = 1.50
rates.
¥ £
1. Sell our $ for £, Credit Agricole
2. Sell our £ for ¥, S¥/£(0) = 85
3. Sell those ¥ for $.
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Triangular Arbitrage
Sell $100,000 for £ at S£(0) = 1.50
receive £150,000
Sell our £ 150,000 for ¥ at S¥/£(0) = 85
receive ¥12,750,000
Sell ¥ 12,750,000 for $ at S¥(0) = 120
receive $106,250
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Relative Purchasing Power Parity
Provides information about what causes
changes in exchange rates.
The basic result is that exchange rates depend
on relative inflation between countries:
E(St ) = S0[1 + (hFC – hUS)]t
Because absolute PPP doesn’t hold for many
goods, we will focus on relative PPP from here
on out.
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Example
Suppose the Canadian spot exchange rate is
1.18 Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar. U.S.
inflation is expected to be 3% per year, and
Canadian inflation is expected to be 2%.
Do you expect the U.S. dollar to appreciate or
depreciate relative to the Canadian dollar?
Since inflation is higher in the U.S., we would expect
the U.S. dollar to depreciate relative to the Canadian
dollar.
What is the expected exchange rate in one year?
E(S ) = 1.18[1 + (.02 - .03)] 1
= 1.1682
1
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20.4 Interest Rate Parity
IRP is an arbitrage condition.
If IRP did not hold, then it would be possible
for an astute trader to make unlimited
amounts of money exploiting the arbitrage
opportunity.
Since we don’t typically observe persistent
arbitrage conditions, we can safely assume
that IRP holds.
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Interest Rate Parity
Suppose you have $100,000 to invest for one year.
You can either
1. Invest in the U.S. at i$.
Future value = $100,000×(1 + i$)
2. Trade your dollars for yen at the spot rate, invest in
Japan at i¥ and hedge your exchange rate risk by selling
the future value of the Japanese investment forward.
F
Future value = $100,000 × × (1 + i¥)
S
Since both of these investments have the same risk, they must
have the same future value:
F
× (1 + i¥) = (1 + i$)
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Interest Rate Parity
F
Formally, × (1 + i¥) = (1 + i$)
S
F
or if you prefer, = (1 + i $ )
S (1 + i¥)
i$ – i¥ = F–S
S
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IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage
If IRP failed to hold, an arbitrage opportunity would exist. It’s
easiest to see this in the form of an example.
Consider the following set of foreign and domestic interest rates
and spot and forward exchange rates.
Spot exchange rate S£(0) = $1.25/£
360-day forward F£(360) = $1.20/£
rate
U.S. discount rate i$ = 7.10%
British discount i£ = 11.56%
rate
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IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage
A trader with $1,000 to invest could invest in the U.S.,
in one year his investment will be worth $1,071 =
$1,000(1+ i$) = $1,000(1.071)
Alternatively, this trader could:
1. exchange $1,000 for £800 at the prevailing spot rate,
(note that £800 = $1,000÷$1.25/£)
2. invest £800 at i£ = 11.56% for one year to achieve
£892.48.
3. Translate £892.48 back into dollars at F£(360) =
$1.20/£, the £892.48 will be exactly $1,071.
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IRP and Covered Interest Arbitrage
A trader with $1,000 to invest:
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International Fisher Effect
Combining PPP and UIP we can get the
International Fisher Effect:
RUS – hUS = RFC – hFC
The International Fisher Effect tells us that the
real rate of return must be constant across
countries.
If it is not, investors will move their money to
the country with the higher real rate of return.
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Equilibrium Exchange Rate Relationships
E(e)
IFE FP
PPP
i$ – i¥ IRP
F–S
S
FE FRPPP
h$ – h£
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20.5 International Capital Budgeting
Home Currency Approach
Estimate cash flows in foreign currency
Estimate future exchange rates using UIP
Convert future cash flows to dollars
Discount using domestic required return
Foreign Currency Approach
Estimate cash flows in foreign currency
Use the IFE to convert domestic required return to foreign
required return
Discount using foreign required return
Convert NPV to dollars using current spot rate
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Home Currency Approach
Your company is looking at a new project in
Mexico. The project will cost 9 million pesos.
The cash flows are expected to be 2.25 million
pesos per year for 5 years. The current spot
exchange rate is 9.08 pesos per dollar. The
risk-free rate in the US is 4%, and the risk-free
rate in Mexico 8%. The dollar required return
is 15%.
Should the company make the investment?
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Foreign Currency Approach
Use the same information as the previous
example to estimate the NPV using the
Foreign Currency Approach
Mexican inflation rate from the International
Fisher Effect is 8% - 4% = 4%
Required Return = 15% + 4% = 19%
PV of future cash flows = 6,879,679
NPV = 6,879,679 – 9,000,000 = -2,120,321 pesos
NPV = -2,120,321 / 9.08 = -233,516
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20.6 Exchange Rate Risk
Short-Run Exposure
Long-Run Exposure
Translation Exposure
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Short-Run Exposure
Risk from day-to-day fluctuations in exchange
rates and the fact that companies have
contracts to buy and sell goods in the short-run
at fixed prices
Managing risk
Enter into a forward agreement to guarantee the
exchange rate.
Use foreign currency options to lock in exchange
rates if they move against you, but benefit from
rates if they move in your favor.
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Long-Run Exposure
Long-run fluctuations come from
unanticipated changes in relative economic
conditions
Could be due to changes in labor markets or
governments
More difficult to hedge
Try to match long-run inflows and outflows in
the currency
Borrowing in the foreign country may mitigate
some of the problems
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Translation Exposure
Income from foreign operations must be translated
back to U.S. dollars for accounting purposes, even if
foreign currency is not actually converted back to
dollars.
If gains and losses from this translation flowed
through directly to the income statement, there would
be significant volatility in EPS.
Current accounting regulations require that all cash
flows be converted at the prevailing exchange rates,
with currency gains and losses accumulated in a
special account within shareholders equity.
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Managing Exchange Rate Risk
Large multinational firms may need to manage
the exchange rate risk associated with several
different currencies.
The firm needs to consider its net exposure to
currency risk instead of just looking at each
currency separately.
Hedging individual currencies could be
expensive and may actually increase exposure.
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20.7 Political Risk
Changes in value due to political actions in the foreign
country
Investment in countries that have unstable governments
should require higher returns.
The extent of political risk depends on the nature of the
business:
The more dependent the business is on other operations
within the firm, the less valuable it is to others.
Natural resource development can be very valuable to
others, especially if much of the ground work in
developing the resource has already been done.
Local financing can often reduce political risk.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Quick Quiz
What does an exchange rate tell us?
What is triangle arbitrage?
What are absolute purchasing power parity and relative purchasing
power parity?
What are covered interest arbitrage and interest rate parity?
What are uncovered interest parity and the International Fisher
Effect?
What are the two methods for international capital budgeting?
What is the difference between short-run interest rate exposure and
long-run interest rate exposure? How can you hedge each type?
What is political risk and what types of business face the greatest
risk?
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