PROBABILITY

Subtitle
Classic Probability

 The probability of an event [p(E)] is the likelihood of that occurrence. It is

associated with discrete variables. The probability of any event is the
number of times or ways an event can occur (m) divided by the total
number of possible associated events (N):
Classic Probability

 For example, if we toss a fair coin, there are only two possible outcomes (a
head or a tail). The likelihood that one event, for example a tail, is 1/2 or
p(Tail) = 0.5.
Classic Probability

 The universe (N), which represents all possible outcomes, is also referred
to as the outcome space or sample space. Note that the outcomes
forming this sample space are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. The
outcomes that fulfill these two requirements are called simple outcomes.
 What is the probability of drawing a red card from a deck of playing cards?
There are 52 cards in a deck, of which 26 are red; therefore, the
probability of drawing a red card is
Classic Probability

 What is the probability of drawing a queen from the deck? With four
queens per deck the probability is

 What is the probability of drawing a diamond from the deck? There are 13
diamonds per deck with an associated probability of
General Rules on Probabilities

 First, a probability cannot be negative. Even an impossible outcome would

have p(E) = 0.
 Second, the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes for a
discrete variable is equal to one. For example, with the tossing of a coin,
the probability of a head equals 0.50, the probability of a tail also equals
0.50 and the sum of both outcomes equals 1.0. Thus the probability of an
outcome cannot be less than 0 or more than 1.
General Rules on Probabilities

 The third general rule, because of the addition theorem, is that the
likelihood of two or more mutually exclusive outcomes equals the sum of
their individual probabilities.
Composite Outcome

 For example, the probability of a composite outcome of drawing a face

card (jack, queen, or king) would equal the sum of their probabilities.

 For any outcome E, there is a complementary event ( E ), which can be

considered “not E” or “E not.” Since either E or E must occur, but both
cannot occur at the same time, then P(E) + P( E ) = 1 or written for the
complement
Composite Outcome

 The complement is equal to all possible outcomes minus the event under
consideration. In one of the previous examples, it was determined that the
probability of drawing a queen from a deck of cards is 0.077. The
complimentary probability, or the probability of “not a queen” is
Theoretical or Empirical Probabilities

Theoretical probabilities - we can base our decision on formal or logical

grounds.

Empirical probabilities - based on prior experience or observation of prior

behavior. For example, the likelihood of a 55 year-old female dying of lung
cancer cannot be based on any formal or logical considerations. Instead,
probabilities associated with risk factors and previous mortalities would
contribute to such an empirical probability.
Tree Diagram

A visual method for identifying all of

the possible outcomes in a
probability exercise is the tree
diagram. Branches from the tree
correspond to the possible results.
Figure 2.2 displays the possible
outcome from tossing three fair
coins.
Probability Involving Two Variables

Click icon to add picture

A conjoint or union (A∪B) is

used when calculating the
probability of either A or B
occurring.
An intersect (A∩B) or joint
probability is employed
when calculating the
probability of both A and B
occurring at the same time.
Intersect Probability

 For example what is the probability of drawing a card that is both a queen and a
heart
Conjoint Probability

 Looking at Figure 2.1-D it is possible to see that using the addition theorem the
probability of queen and the probability of a heart could be added together.
However, the intersect represents an overlapping of the two probabilities or the
p(A or B) equals the sum of the two probabilities minus the probability
associated with the intersect.

 Therefore, if we subtract one of the two intercept areas seen in Figure 2.1-C we
can compute the conjoint:
Example

 In a national survey, conducted in the early 1990s, on the availability of various

types of hardware required to utilize different methods of programming for
continuing pharmaceutical education, it was found that out of the 807
respondents: 419 had access to a personal computer capable of downloading
external software; 572 had cable television in their homes; and 292 had both
personal computers and cable television.
QUESTION AND ANSWER

 Assuming that this sample is representative of all pharmacists nationally, what

was the probability (at that point in time) of selecting a pharmacist at random
and finding that this individual had access to a personal computer?

 What is the probability of selecting a pharmacist at random and finding that this
individual had cable television?
QUESTION AND ANSWER

 What is the probability of selecting a pharmacist at random and finding that this
individual did not have cable television?

 or considering p(noTV) as a complement television?

 Note that the sum of all possible outcomes for cable television equals 1.
QUESTION AND ANSWER

 What is the probability of selecting a pharmacist at random who had both access
to a personal computer and cable television?
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 Many times it is necessary to calculate the probability of an outcome, given that

a certain value is already known for a second variable. For example, what is the
probability of event A occurring given the fact that only a certain level (or
outcome) of a second variable (B) is considered.

 For example, what is the probability of drawing a queen of hearts from a stack of
cards containing only the heart cards from a single deck?
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 From the previous example, if a selected pharmacist had a personal computer,

what is the probability that this same individual also had cable television?

 If the selected pharmacist had cable television, what is the probability that this
same individual also had access to a personal computer?
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 Conditional probability can be extremely useful in determining if two variables

are independent of each other or if some type of interaction occurs. For example,
consider the above example of pharmacists with cable television and/or personal
computers. The data could be arranged as follows, with those pharmacists having
both cable television and personal computers counted in the upper left box.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 Assume for the moment that only 300 pharmacists were involved in the sample
and by chance 50% of these pharmacists had personal computers:
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 If there is no relationship between cable TV and personal computer ownership (independence) then
we would expect the same proportion of computer owners and those not owning computers to
have cable TV service (100 and 100 in each of the left boxes) and the same proportion of individuals
not receiving cable:

 In this example:

 Thus, p(A∩B) will equal p(A) if the outcomes for A and B are independent of each other. This aspect
of conditional probability is extremely important when discussing the chi square test of
independence
KEY TAKEAWAYS

 We define conditional probability as the probability of Event A knowing that Event B has
already occurred.
 We can say Events A and B are independent of each other if the occurrence of Event B has no
effect on the probability of Event A. If Events A and B are not independent of one another, then
they are said to be dependent events.
 For dependent events, the multiplication rule states that P[A and B] = P[A/B] P[B]. If the events
are independent, the multiplication rule simplifies to P[A and B] = P[A] P[B].
 We consider two events to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time during
the experiment.
 For mutually exclusive events, the addition rule states that P[A or B] = P[A] + P[B]. If the events
are not mutually exclusive, the addition rule becomes P[A or B] = P[A] + P[B] – P[A and B].
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is
in favor of the new law.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is a
Republican.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is
not in favor of the new law.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is a
Democrat.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is
in favor of the new law
given that the person is a
Republican.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is
not in favor of the new law
given that the person is a
Republican.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is in
favor of the new law given
that the person is a
Democrat.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is in
favor of the new law and that
the person is a Republican.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is in
favor of the new law and that
the person is a Democrat.
Problem

 Determine the probability

that the selected person is in
favor of the new law or that
the person is a Republican.
Problem

 Determine the probability that

the selected person is in favor
of the new law or that the
person is a Democrat.
COUNTING TECHNIQUES
COUNTING PRINCIPLE

 According to the fundamental counting principle, if one event can occur in m

ways and a second event can occur in n ways, the total number of ways both
events can occur together is m • n ways. And we can extend this principle to
more than two events.
COUNTING PRINCIPLE

 Example: Calculate the number of unique combinations for a state’s automobile

license plates. Suppose the state plates have three letters followed by four
numbers. The number zero and the letter O are not eligible because their
resemblance may cause confusion. Because we have 25 possible letters and 9
possible numbers, the total number of unique combinations is as follows:
FACTORIAL

 Factorials are used in counting techniques. Written as n!, a factorial is the

product of all whole numbers from 1 to n.

 For example: 8! = 8 . 7 . 6 . 5 . 4 . 3 . 2 . 1
 Note: 0! = 1 (by definition)
PERMUTATIONS

 Permutations represent the number of possible ways objects can be arranged

where order is important.
 For example, how many different orders (arrangements) can be assigned to five
sample bottles in a row (bottles labeled A, B, C, D and E)?
 First let us consider the possible arrangements if bottle A is selected first (Figure
2.3). Thus, if A is first, there are 24 possible ways to arrange the remaining
bottles. Similar results would occur if bottles B, C, D, or E are taken first. The
resultant number of permutations being:
PERMUTATIONS

 If the permutation involves less than the total n, a factorial adjustment is easily
calculated. In the above example how many possible ways could three of the five bottles
can be arranged? Thus, the total possible ways to assay three out of five bottles is:

 where n is the total number of possible objects and x is the number in the arrangement.
COMBINATIONS

 Combinations are used when the order of the observations is not important. For
example, assume we want to assay the contents of three of the five bottles
described above instead of arranging them in a row. The important feature is
which three are selected, not the order in which they are chosen.
 Using factorials for calculating larger combinations, the formula would be as
follows:

 n is the total number of possible objects and x is the number of objects selected
for the combination.
COMBINATIONS - EXAMPLE

 During the production of a parenteral agent, the manufacturer samples 25 vials

per hour for use in various quality control tests. Five of these vials sampled each
hour are used for tests of contamination. How many possible ways could these
vials be selected for contamination testing for one specific hour?
PERMUTATIONS - EXAMPLE

 60 volunteers are randomly assigned to ten groups of six subjects each for the
various segments (or legs) of a study. The first group receives the lowest dose,
the second group receives the second lowest dose, up to the last group which
receives the largest dose. At the last minute the sponsor of the study decides to
reduce the maximum dose and will require only the first six segments of the
study. How many ways can the assigned groups be selected for this abbreviated
study?
USE OF EXCEL

 For factorials use function argument FACT and enter the number for which a
factorial value is required.
 For permutations select function argument PERMUT, enter the total number of
possible objects (n – “number”) and the possible number in the arrangement (x –
“Number_chosen”).
 For a combination use function argument COMBIN, enter the total number of
possible objects (n – “number”) and the possible number in the arrangement (x –
“Number_chosen”).
PROBLEMS

 Three laboratory technicians work in a quality control laboratory with five different pieces of
analytical equipment. Each technician is qualified to operate each piece of equipment. How
many different ways can each piece of the equipment be assigned to each technician?
 Ten tablets are available for analysis, but because of time restrictions the scientist will only
be able to sample five tablets. How many possible ways can these tablets be sampled?
 A restaurant has a menu with three appetizers, eight entrées, four desserts, and three
drinks. How many different meals can you order?
 A multiple-choice test has 10 questions, with each question having four choices. What is the
probability that a student, who randomly answers each question, will answer each question
correctly?