Hypothesis Testing

-Introduction
Data refers to the set of observations, values, elements or
objects under consideration
Data also refers to the known facts or things used as basis
for inference or reckoning facts,
information, material to be processed or stored.
The complete set of all possible elements or objects is
called a population.
 Each of the elements is called a piece of data.
What are you doing if you record, , over a period of
time:
 the minimum and maximum temperature,
or rainfall,
or the time of sunrise and sunset,
 or attendance of children,
or the body temperature of the patient
You are recording what is known as data.
NATURE OF DATA

Qualitative and Quantitative Data

Continuous and Discrete Data
Primary and Secondary Data
Qualitative and Quantitative Data

•The number of schools have been shown according to the management of

schools, classified into 4 categories,
• Government Schools, Local Body Schools, Private Aided Schools and
Private Unaided Schools.
• A given school belongs to any one of the four categories.
• Such data is shown as Categorical or Qualitative Data.
•Here the category or the quality referred to is management.
•Thus categorical or qualitative data result from information which has
been classified into categories.
•Each piece of data clearly belongs to one classification or category
Numerical or Quantitative Data

•Here number of schools have been shown according to the enrolment of students
in
the school
• Schools with enrolment varying in a specified range are grouped together, e.g.
there are 15 schools where the students enrolled are any number between 51 and
100
• As the grouping is based on numbers, such data are called Numerical or
Quantitative Data
•Thus, numerical or quantitative data result from counting or measuring
• We frequently come across numerical data in newspapers, advertisements etc.
related to the temperature of the cities, cricket averages, incomes, expenditures
and so on.
Continuous and Discrete Data

•The data above pertain to the heights of students of a class.

•Here the element under observation is the height of the students
•The height varies from 4' 8" to 5' 10”
•The height of an individual may be anywhere from 4' 8" to 5' 10“
•Two students may vary by almost zero inch height
•Even if we take two adjacent points, say 4' 8.00" and 4' 8.01" there
may be several values between the two points
•Such data are called Continuous Data, as the height is continuous
Continuous Data
Continuous Data arise from the measurement of
continuous attributes or variables, in which individual
may differ by amounts just approaching zero.
Examples of continuous data
 Weights and heights of children;
 temperature of a body;
intelligence and achievement level of students, etc.
Discrete Data.

Discrete Data are characterized by gaps in the

scale, for which no real values may ever be found.
Such data are usually expressed in whole numbers.
The size of a family, enrolment of children, number
of books etc. are the examples of discrete data.
 Generally data arising from measurement are
continuous, while data arising from counting or
arbitrary classification are discrete.
Discrete Data.
Let us recall the number of schools according to
enrolment.
Let us, consider the enrolment of 2 schools as 60 and
61.
Now in between 60 and 61, there cannot be any
number, as the enrolment will always be in whole
numbers
Thus there is a gap of one unit from 60 to 61
Such data, where the elements being observed have
gaps are called Discrete Data.
Some facts
The achievement scores of students, though presented in
discrete form may be considered to constitute continuous data
since
 a score of 24 represents any point between 23.5 and 24.5.
Actually achievement is a continuous attribute or variable.
All measurements of continuous attributes are approximate in
character and as such do not provide a basis for distinguishing
between continuous and discrete data.
The distinction is made on the basis of variable being measured.
'Height' is a continuous variable but number of children would
give discrete data.
Measurement
Let us take four different situations for a class of 30 students : .
—
1. Assigning them roll nos. from 1 to 30 on random basis
2. Asking the students to stand in a queue as per their heights
and assigning them position numbers in queue from 1 to 30
3. Administering a test of 50 marks to all students and awarding
marks from 0 to 50,as per their performance
4. Measuring the height and weight of students and making
student-wise record
In the first situation-assigning them roll
nos. from 1 to 30 on random basis.
The numbers have been assigned purely on arbitrary basis.
 Any student could be assigned No. 1 while any one could be
assigned No. 30.
 No two students can be compared on the basis of allotment
of numbers, in any respect.
The students have been labelled from 1 to 30 in order to give
each an identity.
This scale refers to nominal scale.
Here the property of identity is applicable but the properties
of order and additivity are not applicable.
In the second situation, asking the students to stand in a queue
as per their heights and assigning them position numbers in
queue from 1 to 30.
The students have been assigned their position numbers in queue from 1
to 30.
 Here the numbering is not on arbitrary basis.
 The numbers have been assigned accordingto the height of the
students.
So the students are comparable on the basis of their heights, as there is a
sequence in this regard.
Every subsequent child is taller than the previous one, and so on.
This scale refers to ordinal scale.
Here the object or event has got its identity, as well as order.
 As the difference in height of any two students is not known, so the
property of addition of numbers is not applicable to the ordinal scale.
In the third situation administering a test of 50 marks to all
students and awarding marks from 0 to 50,as per their
performance.
The students have been awarded marks from 0 to 50 on the basis of their
performance in the test administered on them.
Consider the marks obtained by 3 students, which are 30,20 and 40
respectively.
 Here, it may be interpreted that the difference between the performance of
the 1st and 2nd student is the same, as between the performance of the 1st and
the 3rd student.
However, no one can say that the performance of the 3rd student is just
the double of the 2nd student.
 This is because there is no absolute zero and a student getting 0 marks,
cannot be termed as having zero achievement level.
This scale refers to interval scale.
Here the properties of identity, order and additivity are applicable.
In the fourth situation measuring the height and weight
of students and making student-wise record.

The exact physical values pertaining to the heights

and weights of all students have been obtained.
Here the values are comparable in all respect. If two
students have heights of 120 cm and 140 cm, then the
difference in their heights is 20 cm and the heights are
in the ratio 6:7.
This scale refers to ratio scale.
Hypothesis Testing
When you conduct a piece of quantitative research,
you are inevitably attempting to answer a research
question or hypothesis that you have set.
One method of evaluating this research question is via
a process called hypothesis testing, which is
sometimes also referred to as significance testing.
Example
Two lecturers, Sarah and Mike, think that they use the best method to
teach their students.
 Each lecturer has 50 students who are studying a graduate degree in
management.
In Sarah's class, students have to attend one lecture and one seminar
class every week, whilst in Mike's class students only have to attend
one lecture.
Sarah thinks that seminars, in addition to lectures, are an important
teaching method, whilst Mike believes that lectures are sufficient by
themselves and thinks that students are better off solving problems by
themselves in their own time.
This is the first year that Sarah has given seminars, but since they take
up a lot of her time, she wants to make sure that she is not wasting her
time and that seminars improve her students' performance.
The first step in hypothesis testing is to set a
research hypothesis.
In Sarah and Mike's study, the aim is to examine the effect that two
different teaching methods had on the performance of Sarah's 50
students and Mike's 50 students
providing both lectures and seminar classes (Sarah)
and providing lectures (Mike)
 More specifically, they want to determine whether performance is
different between the two different teaching methods.
Whilst Mike is skeptical about the effectiveness of seminars, Sarah
clearly believes that giving seminars in addition to lectures helps her
students do better than those in Mike's class.
This leads to the following research hypothesis:
Research Hypothesis: When students attend seminar classes, in addition
to lectures, their performance increases
Sample to population
If you have measured individuals (or any other type of "object") in a study
and want to understand differences (or any other type of effect)
 you can simply summarize the data you have collected

For example, if Sarah and Mike wanted to know which teaching method
was the best, they could simply compare the performance achieved by the
two groups of students –
 the group of students that took lectures and seminar classes,
and the group of students that took lectures
and conclude that the best method was the teaching method which
resulted in the highest performance

However, this is generally of only limited appeal because the conclusions

could only apply to students in this study.
However, if those students were representative of all students on a
graduate management degree, the study would have wider appeal.
Sample and population
In statistics terminology, the students in the study are the
sample and the larger group they represent (i.e., all students
on a graduate management degree) is called the population
 Given that the sample of management students in the study
are representative of a larger population of students, you can
use hypothesis testing to
understand whether any differences or effects discovered in the
study exist in the population
 In layman's terms:
 hypothesis testing is used to establish whether a research
hypothesis extends beyond those individuals examined in a
single study
Contd.
Another example could be taking a sample of 200 blood
cancer sufferers in order to test a new drug that is designed to
eradicate this type of cancer.
As much as you are interested in helping these specific 200
cancer sufferers, your real goal is to establish that the drug
works in the population (i.e., all blood cancer sufferers).
As such, by taking a hypothesis testing approach, Sarah and
Mike want to generalize their results to a population rather
than just the students in their sample.
 However, in order to use hypothesis testing, you need to re-
state your research hypothesis as
 a null and
 alternative hypothesis
Operationally defining (measuring) the
study
So far, we have simply referred to the outcome of the
teaching methods as the "performance" of the
students, but what do we mean by "performance".
 "Performance" could mean
 how students score in a piece of coursework,
how many times they can answer questions in class,
what marks they get in their exams, and so on.
There are three major reasons why we should be clear about how we operationalize (i.e., measure) what
we are studying
First, we simply need to be clear so that people reading our work are in no doubt about
what we are studying.
This makes it easier for them to repeat the study in future to see if they
also get the same (or similar) results; something called internal
validity.
Second, one of the criteria by which quantitative research is assessed, perhaps by an
examiner, is how you define what you are measuring
(in this case, "performance")
and how you choose to measure it.
Third, it will determine which statistical test you need to use because the choice of
statistical test is largely based on how your variables were measured (e.g., whether the
variable, "performance", was measured on
a "continuous" scale of 1-100 marks;
an "ordinal" scale with groups of marks, such as 0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-
80 and 81-100;
or some of other scale;
It is worth noting that these choices will sometimes be personal
choices (i.e., they are subjective) and at other times they will be
guided by some other/external information.
For example, if you were to measure intelligence, there may be a
number of characteristics that you could use, such as
IQ,
emotional intelligence, and so forth.
What you choose here will likely be a personal choice because all
these variables are proxies for intelligence;
that is, they are variables used to infer an individual's intelligence,
 But not everyone would agree that IQ alone is an accurate
measure of intelligence
In contrast, if you were measuring company performance, you
would find a number of established metrics in the academic and
practitioner literature that would determine what you should test,
 such as "Return on Assets", etc.
 Therefore, to know what you should measure, it is always worth
looking at the literature first to
see what other studies have done, whether you use the same
measures or not
It is then a matter of making an educated decision whether the
variables you choose to examine
are accurate proxies for what you are trying to study,
as well as discussing the potential limitations of these proxies.
In the case of measuring a student's performance there are a number of
proxies that could be used, such as
class participation,
exam marks,
since these are all good measures of performance.
However, in this case, we choose exam marks as our measure of
performance for two reasons:
First, as a statistics tutor, we feel that Sarah's main job is to help her
students get the best grade possible since this will affect her students'
overall grades in their graduate management degree.
 Second, the assessment for the course is a single two hour exam.
Since class participation is not assessed in this course, exam marks seem
to be the most appropriate proxy for performance.
However,
 it is worth noting that if the assessment for the course was not only a two
hour exam, but also a piece of project work
 we would probably have chosen to measure both exam marks and project
work marks as proxies of performance.
Variables

The next step is to define the variables that we are using in our study
Since the study aims to examine the effect that two different teaching
methods – providing lectures and seminar classes (Sarah) and
providing lectures by themselves (Mike) – had on the performance
of Sarah's 50 students and Mike's 50 students,
The variables being measured are:
Dependent variable: Exam marks
Independent variable: Teaching method ("seminar" vs "lecture only")
 By using a very straightforward example, we have only one
dependent variable and one independent variable although studies
can examine any number of dependent and independent variables.
The structure of hypothesis testing
1. Define the research hypothesis for the study
2. Explain how you are going to operationalize (that is, measure
or operationally define) what you are studying and set out the
variables to be studied.
3. Set out the null and alternative hypothesis (or more than one
hypothesis; in other words, a number of hypotheses).
4. Set the significance level.
5. Make a one- or two-tailed prediction.
6. Determine whether the distribution that you are studying is
normal (this has implications for the types of statistical tests that
you can run on your data).
7. Select an appropriate statistical test based on the variables you
have defined and whether the distribution is normal or not.
8. Run the statistical tests on your data and interpret the output.
9. Reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.
The null and alternative hypothesis
In order to undertake hypothesis testing you need to express your
research hypothesis as a
 null and
alternative hypothesis.
The null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis are statements
regarding
the differences or effects that occur in the population.
You will use your sample to test which statement
(i.e., the null hypothesis or alternative hypothesis) is most likely
(although technically, you test the evidence against the null hypothesis).
So, with respect to our teaching example,
the null and alternative hypothesis will reflect statements about all
students on graduate management courses.
Null hypothesis
The null hypothesis is essentially the "devil's advocate" position.
That is, it assumes that whatever you are trying to prove did not
happen (hint: it usually states that something equals zero)
For example
 the two different teaching methods did not result in different exam
performances (i.e., zero difference).
Another example might be that
there is no relationship between anxiety and athletic performance (i.e.,
the slope is zero).
 The alternative hypothesis states the opposite and is usually the
hypothesis you are trying to prove
e.g., the two different teaching methods did result in different exam
performances
Initially, you can state these hypotheses in more
general terms
e.g., using terms like "effect", "relationship", etc.
The teaching methods example:
Null Hypotheses (H0): Undertaking seminar classes
has no effect on students' performance.
 Alternative Hypothesis (HA): Undertaking seminar
class has a positive effect on students' performance.
As such, we can state:
Depending on how you want to "summarize" the exam
performances will determine how you might want to
write a more specific null and alternative hypothesis.
 For example, you could compare the mean exam
performance of each group (i.e., the "seminar" group
and the "lectures-only" group).
Null Hypotheses (H0): The mean exam mark for the "seminar"
and "lecture-only" teaching methods is the same in the
population.
Alternative Hypothesis (HA): The mean exam mark for the
"seminar" and "lecture-only" teaching methods is not the same
in the population.
Now that you have identified the null and alternative
hypotheses, you need to find evidence and develop a strategy
for declaring your "support" for either the null or alternative
hypothesis.
We can do this using some statistical theory and some arbitrary
cut-off points.
 The level of statistical significance is often expressed as the so-
called p-value.
Significance levels

 Depending on the statistical test you have chosen, you will calculate a
probability (i.e., the p-value) of observing your sample results (or
more extreme) given that the null hypothesis is true.
Another way of phrasing this is to consider the probability that a
difference in a mean score (or other statistic) could have arisen based
on the assumption that there really is no difference.
Let us consider this statement with respect to our example where we
are interested in the difference in mean exam performance between
two different teaching methods.
 If there really is no difference between the two teaching methods in
the population (i.e., given that the null hypothesis is true), how likely
would it be to see a difference in the mean exam performance
between the two teaching methods as large as (or larger than) that
which has been observed in your sample?
So, you might get a p-value such as 0.03 (i.e., p = .03). This
means that there is a 3% chance of finding a difference as
large as (or larger than) the one in your study given that the
null hypothesis is true.
 However, you want to know whether this is "statistically
significant".
 Typically, if there was a 5% or less chance (5 times in 100 or
less) that the difference in the mean exam performance
between the two teaching methods is as different as
observed given the null hypothesis is true, you would reject
the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.
 Alternately, if the chance was greater than 5% (5 times in
100 or more), you would fail to reject the null hypothesis
and would not accept the alternative hypothesis.
As such, in this example where p = .03, we would reject the null
hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. We reject it
because at a significance level of 0.03 (i.e., less than a 5%
chance), the result we obtained could happen too frequently for
us to be confident that it was the two teaching methods that
had an effect on exam performance.
Whilst there is relatively little justification why a significance
level of 0.05 is used rather than 0.01 or 0.10, for example, it is
widely used in academic research.
However, if you want to be particularly confident in your results,
you can set a more stringent level of 0.01 (a 1% chance or less; 1
in 100 chance or less).
One- and two-tailed predictions
When considering whether we reject the null hypothesis
and accept the alternative hypothesis, we need to
consider the direction of the alternative hypothesis
statement.
For example, the alternative hypothesis that was stated
earlier is:
Alternative Hypothesis (HA): Undertaking seminar
classes has a positive effect on students' performance.
 The alternative hypothesis tells us two things.
 First, what predictions did we make about the effect of
the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable(s)?
Second, what was the predicted direction of this effect?
 Let's use our example to highlight these two points:
Sarah predicted that her teaching method (independent
variable), whereby she not only required her students to
attend lectures, but also seminars,
 would have a positive effect (that is, increased) students'
performance (dependent variable: exam marks).
 If an alternative hypothesis has a direction (and this is
how you want to test it), the hypothesis is one-tailed.
That is, it predicts direction of the effect.
 If the alternative hypothesis has stated that the effect
was expected to be negative, this is also a one-tailed
hypothesis.
Alternatively, a two-tailed prediction means that we do not make a choice over the direction that the effect of the experiment takes.

Rather, it simply implies that the effect could be negative or positive.

If Sarah had made a two-tailed prediction, the alternative hypothesis
might have been:
Alternative Hypothesis (Ha): Undertaking seminar classes has an
effect on students' performance.
In other words, we simply take out the word "positive", which implies
the direction of our effect.
 In our example, making a two-tailed prediction may seem strange.
After all, it would be logical to expect that "extra" tuition (going to
seminar classes as well as lectures) would either have a positive effect on
students' performance or no effect at all, but certainly not a negative
effect.
 However, this is just our opinion (and hope) and certainly does not
mean that we will get the effect we expect.
Rejecting or failing to reject the null hypothesis
Let's return finally to the question of whether we
reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.
If our statistical analysis shows that the significance
level is below the cut-off value we have set (e.g., either
0.05 or 0.01), we reject the null hypothesis and accept
the alternative hypothesis.
Alternatively, if the significance level is above the cut-
off value, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and
cannot accept the alternative hypothesis.
 You should note that you cannot accept the null
hypothesis, but only find evidence against it.