Why the South Carolina

Presidential Primary
Matters

by Scott H. Huffmon, PhD

Professor of Political Science

Director, Social & Behavioral Research Lab at

Sponsored by
Because we’re
SOUTH CAROLINA!!!!

THAT’S WHY!!!!!
….thanks for coming.
More seriously, we are very critical to the presidential nominating
process of both Democrats and Republicans, more so to the
Republicans, so let’s quickly talk about why the SC Presidential
Primary matters so much to ……

DEMOCRATS
Democratic Presidential
Politics
 African Americans, who vote Democratic for
president 90+%, are a critical part of the
coalition Democrats need to assemble to win.
 To the degree Democrats pick a candidate
who does not resonate with African American
voters, black voters may not turn out in as
large numbers, making victory for the
Democrat that much harder to
achieve.
Democratic Primary in SC
 In South Carolina, African Americans can
account for up to 50% of Democratic
Presidential Primary voters.
 That makes SC the first real test of which
candidate African Americans will support and
which candidates excite the African American
base.
Democratic Primary in SC
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary Turnout in SC by Race
Number Percentage
White 225,312 43.72%
Non-white* 290,091 56.28%
Total 515,403 100%

*NOTE: the South Carolina Election Commission only collects voter race data by “white” and “non-white”

2008 Republican Presidential Primary Turnout in SC by Race

Number Percentage
White 432,300 98.59%
Non-white* 6,181 1.49%
Total 438,481 100%

Source: http://www.scvotes.org/files/ElectionReports/Election_Report_2008.pdf
African American Voters in SC
September 2007 Winthrop Poll
2008 SC African American Presidential Primary Voters (Sept 2007)
All Male Female
Obama 35.4% 42.4% 30.6%
Clinton 30.7% 30.5% 30.9%
Undecided 28.7% 21.7% 33.8%

NOTE: Final turnout in the Democratic Presidential Primary was 61.3%

Female (SC Election Commission did not do breakdown by Race and
Sex)
Even so, the SC Democratic
Presidential Primary is not as
important to the overall
contest for the Democrat as
the SC Republican Presidential
Primary is to the overall
contest for the Republicans.
So let’s talk about the

REPUBLICANS
SC Republican Presidential
Primary
 Since the South Carolina Republican Party
moved to a primary for their method of
Presidential nomination, the results of the SC
Republican Presidential Primary have
correctly predicted who would win the
eventual party nomination
 ………. every time.
SC Republican Presidential
Primary – SC Winners
 1980 – Ronald Reagan
 1984 – (uncontested)
 1988 – George H.W. Bush
 1992 – George H.W. Bush
 1996 – Bob Dole
 2000 – George W. Bush
 2004 – (uncontested)
 2008 – John McCain
SC Republican Presidential
Primary
 So ….. We’ve got a streak going.

 We must be pretty good at predicting the

eventual winner.
 …. but is there any OTHER reason the SC
presidential primary might be relevant for
Republicans?
SC Republican Presidential
Primary
 We are a good predictor AND we are an
excellent test of who southern conservatives
will support (by the way, our accuracy at this
second point would be diminished if the SC
Republican party moved to closed primaries,
but that’s for another day)
 Well, why is the South so important to
Republican Presidential Politics?
The Electoral College
 There are 538 Electoral College Votes.
 A candidate needs 270 EC votes to win the presidency
 Each state gets a number of “Electors” equal to its total
representation in Congress (total number of House seats
plus 2 for the Senate)
 3 EC votes for the District of Columbia were added with
the 23rd Amendment in 1961
 U.S. territories do not get to vote in presidential elections
 All states except NE and ME use a winner-take-all
system
The South
The South in the Electoral
College
 After the Census of 2000, the 11 states of the
South comprised a total of 153 electoral
college votes.
 This represented 28.44% of the total number
of EC votes.
 This would not be a lot, EXCEPT for the
tendency of the South to vote as a “block.”
The South in the Electoral
College
 In the days of the “Solid South,” the South
was solidly Democratic and was courted,
placated, and depended on by the national
Democratic Party to deliver the White House.
 In the late 19th and early 20th centuries –
despite the relatively small population of the
South – it took an OVERWHELMING victory
in the rest of the country to defeat the
Democratic candidate if the South united
behind him.
The South in the Electoral
College
 Starting with the 1920s, and especially after
the post-WWII growth in the South, if the
“Solid South” unified behind a Democratic
candidate, that candidate won. If not, the
Republican won.
 After the turmoil of the Civil Rights movement
in the South in the 1960s, the South would
never solidly vote Democratic again in a
Presidential election.
The South in the Electoral
College
 As white conservatives first began voting
Republican at the Presidential level (and a
decade later began actually self-identifying
as Republicans), the southern tide turned.
 From the 1972 election on, if the Republican
presidential candidate swept the South, he
won the presidency. If the Democratic
candidate seriously cracked the South, HE
would win the presidency.
The South in the Electoral
College
 So back to those Electoral College numbers
 After the 2000 Census, the South had
28.44% of the total number of electoral
college votes.
 But since only 270 Electoral College votes
are needed to win, the South had 56.67% of
all the EC votes a candidate needed to win
 If a candidate swept the South, he only
needed 30.39% of ALL of the remain non-
southern EC votes in the country.
The South in the Electoral
College
 As of the 2010 Census, the South has only
become that much more vital to presidential
election politics.
 After population growth, the South now has 160
Electoral College votes.
 If a candidate sweeps the South, he (and maybe
in this decade, she) has 59.26% of all the EC
votes he (or she) needs to win the presidency.
 He/she would only need 29.1% of all non-
southern EC votes.
The South in the Electoral
College – Modern Day
 If a Republican sweeps the South, the
Republican wins.
 If a Democrat seriously cracks the South, the
Democrat wins.
 1972

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 1976

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 1980

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 1984

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 1988

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 1992

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 1996

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 2000

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 2004

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

 2008

Electoral College maps from www.270towin.com

Road to the Presidency
 So … in recent times, if the Republican
sweeps the South, the Republican wins
 …. and if the Democrat seriously cracks the
South, the Democrat wins
 Democrats need a candidate who can spur
turnout among black voters
 Republicans need a candidate who can
appeal to conservatives across the South
Road to the Presidency
 …… and South Carolina is the FIRST test of
BOTH of those things!

 BOO-YAH!!!

 Who’s your Daddy NOW,

Presidential Primary!!!!!!
 And THAT’S
Why the South Carolina
Presidential Primary Matters
 Thank
You.

Questions?
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