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Swikar Gupta
Commodity Varun Gupta
Bhuvan Jain
Deep Jain
An introduction to
Commodity Derivatives
Commodity Derivatives Vs Physical Commodity
Fresh sale of commodity It is possible in this case Not possible in this case
(without holding physical
commodity)
● Speculators are there for a very short period of time ● Slightly longer term view on specific commodities
● Thin margins, leveraged trades and rapid churning ● They use futures as a proxy for spot positions by
● Agnostic to direction of the market
paying a margin
● Base their speculative trades on technical charts,
supports, resistances, break-outs, patterns etc. ● Very strong fundamental premise
● Provide Liquidity and ensure min bid-ask spreads ● Hints to traders and analysts regarding which
commodities are attracting long term interest
Arbitrageurs Hedgers
● They even out the pricing inefficiencies ● Hedgers are producers or consumers who want to
● Spot and futures markets in regulated by different transfer the price risk to the market as they have an
regulators underlying exposure to a particular commodity
● Commodities have additional costs ● Opposite position in derivatives thus indifferent to
● They ensure that the market becomes more efficient the price movements.
in the process ● They lend stability and credibility to the commodity
markets
Commodity theories of future returns
● Contango - When future price is greater than spot price.
● Backwardation - When spot price is greater than future price.
Commodity theories of future returns
● INSURANCE THEORY OF FUTURE RETURNS
= Commodity producers determine the future price leading
backwardation
- Problem is market are contango generally
● HEDGING PRESSURE HYPOTHESIS
= Price determined by number of sellers as against number of buyers
- Generally producer’s price risk more than consumer’s risk
● THEORY OF STORAGE
= Commodity price are affected by cost of storage and convenience
yield.
- Convenience yield is difficult to determine.
Components of Returns on Commodity Futures
● The roll return: the weighted accounting difference between the near-term
commodity futures contract price and the farther-term commodity futures contract
price.
● Collateral return: the return accruing to any margin held against a futures position.
Commodity Swaps
Investors can use swaps to increase or decrease exposure to commodities.