NULL HYPOTHESIS AND TESTING

The null hypothesis, H0 is the commonly accepted fact; it is the opposite of the
alternate hypothesis. Researchers work to reject, nullify or disprove the null
hypothesis. Researchers come up with an alternate hypothesis, one that they
think explains a phenomenon, and then work to reject the null hypothesis.

The null hypothesis is the formal basis for testing statistical significance. By
starting with the proposition that there is no association, statistical tests can
estimate the probability that an observed association could be due to chance.

Example: Null and alternative hypothesis, you test whether a new drug
intervention can alleviate symptoms of an autoimmune disease.

In this case:
The null hypothesis (H0) is that the new drug has no effect on symptoms of the
disease.

The alternative hypothesis (H1) is that the drug is effective for alleviating
symptoms of the disease.
In statistics, a Type I error is a false positive conclusion, while a Type II error is a
false negative conclusion.

Making a statistical decision always involves uncertainties, so the risks of making

these errors are unavoidable in hypothesis testing.

The investigator establishes the maximum chance of making type I and type II
errors in advance of the study. The probability of making a Type I error is or alpha
(α), while the probability of making a Type II error is beta (β). These risks can be
minimized through careful planning in your study design.
A type I error (false-positive) occurs if an investigator rejects a null hypothesis that is actually
true in the population;

a type II error (false-negative) occurs if the investigator fails to reject a null hypothesis that is
actually false in the population.

Although type I and type II errors can never be avoided entirely, the investigator can reduce
their likelihood by increasing the sample size (the larger the sample, the lesser is the
likelihood that it will differ substantially from the population). Sometimes, by chance alone,
a sample is not representative of the population. Thus the results in the sample do not
reflect reality in the population, and the random error leads to an erroneous inference.

False-positive and false-negative results can also occur because of bias (Errors due to bias,
however, are not referred to as type I and type II errors.) Such errors are troublesome, since
they may be difficult to detect and cannot usually be quantified.
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