2.

What is Sustainability
The concept of sustainability is often overused and seems to be a catch phrase of the moment used by
business, government and advertisers.

Some of the more meaningful definitions

A society “that is far seeing enough, flexible enough, and wise enough not to undermine either its
physical or its social systems of support.” from “Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse,
Envisioning a Sustainable Future” D. Meadows et al.

“...where day to day decisions are not guided by single minded search for profit, but by a delicate
balancing act among many goals” Dick Levins, Land Stewardship Program, Minnesota

“...sustainability is an ideal, like truth, justice, freedom, democracy and love.” Alan Atkisson, from
Believing in Cassandra, An Optimist look at a Pessimist’s World
2. What is Sustainability
A sustainability plan should include

Long Term Thinking and be Broad in Scope

Thinking What Global Impacts

Seven Generations Ahead could influence New Denver?

Future Threats?

Peak Oil Climate Change

 2. What is Sustainability
FUTURE THREATS TO SUSTAINABILITY - PEAK OIL

What is Peak Oil?

Peak oil is the point at which world oil production hits a peak
and thereafter begins to decline.

Peak oil is not when we will run out of oil, but what
happens when we go over the peak.

“Peak oil is a geological reality...” Kjell Aleklett, President of

ASPO International

When we reach the plateau of Peak Oil?

“World Oil Capacity to Peak in 2010 Says Petrobras CEO” (1)

“We have reached the ‘Peak Of The Oil Age’” Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International

Even more conservative organizations state that peak will be upon us by 2020. (2)

Sources: 1. www.theoildrum.com/node/6169, 2. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5521

image credit: http://www.polaricecapz.com/photo_downloads/last_drop_oil.gif
 2. What is Sustainability
FUTURE THREATS TO SUSTAINABILITY - PEAK OIL

Why does it matter and how will it affect New Denver? Rising Gasoline Costs

Consider a 200 km round trip to Nelson

In 2004 at $0.80/litre it cost about $15

Relative Cost
In 2008 at $1.50/litre it cost about $28

At $3.00/litre it will cost about $57

2004 2008 Near Future Long Term?

Bear in mind all the things that comes to town by road

Groceries Gasoline Diesel

Most things in the Hardware store
Building Supplies Propane

And remember the roads themselves are maintained by fossil fuel driven machinery

Assumptions: 25 mpg car

 2. What is Sustainability
FUTURE THREATS TO SUSTAINABILITY – CLIMATE CHANGE

2007 Columbia Basin Trust Report (1)

Warmer overall temperatures

Increased glacial melt

Less winter snowpack

Changing stream flow patterns:

• Earlier spring peak flows
• Lower summer flows

Highly variable weather patterns

Climate migrants “by 2050...mean annual temperatures similar

to what Osoyoos has today”

1. “Climate Change in the Canadian Columbia Basin: Starting the Dialogue”

Image source: http://www.rovon.co.za/
 2. What is Sustainability
Peak Oil and Climate Change – who cares?

There is a need to accept that change is inevitable

and that adapting and being ready for change is vital.

Image source: http://www.cartoons.nytimages.com/portal/wieck_preview_page_208831

 2. What is Sustainability
Synergies of Peak Oil and Climate Change

Peak Oil (into the gas tank problem) Climate Change (tail pipe solutions)
• Coal to Liquids
• Climate Engineering
• Relaxed Environmental Standards
• Carbon Capture/Sequestration
• Massively scaled biofuels
• Tree based carbon offsets
• Tar Sands
• Emissions trading
• Resource nationalism/stockpiling
• Nuclear Power
(resource wars)

Two parts of the same

problem

I THINK I’LL REMOVE THIS SLIDE, IT WAS MY WAY OF MOVING

INTO RESILIENCE BUT WILL TAKE MUCH EXPLAINING
Transitioning to a peak oil future offers a controlling feedback on climate change by reducing our
carbon footprint. It also recognizes the need to address a future with less energy.

Adapted from www.dynamiccities.squarespace.com

3. Resilience
Beyond Sustainability towards Resilience

The best definitions of sustainability will include elements of resilience

What is resilience?

“In a resilient system ... communities

...are able to draw on support and
resources from elsewhere, but they’re
also self-sufficient enough to provide for
their essential needs in an emergency”
Thomas Homer-Dixon, ‘The Upside of Down: catastrophe, creativity and the renewal of
civilization’

Self sufficient
Adaptive
Insurance

Focusing on resilient solutions will allow us to find creative and innovative ways for the community to
adapt to the daunting and uncertain future
3. Resilience
Some characteristics of a resilient community

Solutions that are unique to New Denver and adapting through

time

Building more self sufficiency into meeting essential community

needs like food and energy

Celebrating and enhancing diversity in the community

Valuing local skills and knowledge – capitalizing on this inherent

stored wealth of the community

Building houses with local materials, for local conditions using

local trade people

Re-building support for the local economy

Ensuring a diverse economy that can compete locally, regionally

and globally, but isn’t fully reliant on outside sources for
economic security
3. Resilience
Current Paradigm to Resilience

Current Paradigm Resilient Paradigm

Linear streams Cyclical streams

Open loop Closed loop

Centralized Control/Power Distributed Control/Power

Mechanistic view Whole Systems view

Increased Efficiencies Efficiency can decrease resilience

(recognizes paradoxes of efficiency)
3. Resilience
Current models of
sustainability

Economic progress
measured by
growth paradigm
Society Economy does not recognize
environmental
limits

Ignores realities of Ignores

energy, food and Environment ecosystem
material needs needs/services
(ie. externalities)
 3. Resilience
A more resilient view Mechanism for pricing
externalities
(ie. CO2, energy, water quotas)

Economy
Steady state
Society allow for
Society growth

Energy/Food
Material Needs

Environmental Ecosystem needs/services

Limits
3. Resilience
Population Rise to 12 Billion

Society
Economy
12 billion

Energy/Food
Material Needs

Ecosystem needs/services
3. Resilience
What we know

Local actions towards population control in our area are limited.

Local actions need to foster and create the steady state economic
paradigms. Can this be done?

Maximizing the re-localization of economic, food and energy

inputs will be the lowest hanging fruits in providing resilience

Fostering these things should lead to self supporting benefits.

(for instance Local milk production requires reviving the milk man trade)
3. Resilience
What models are there

Economic satyagraha – Gandhi concepts of non-violent economies proposed in the late

1800’s and early 1900’s

Permaculture – an ecologically based, energy constrained model that offers guiding design
principles and is the root of transition movement