What Lies behind the Food Crisis in

India and the Global South?

Utsa Patnaik,

Centre for Economic Studies and Planning

Jawaharlal Nehru University
New Delhi, India
Chart 1a Sectoral Output and GDP per Head, 1981-2 to
2005-6

Sectoral Output per Head and GDP per Head, 1981-

2 to 2005-6,Rupees in constant 1999-00 prices

30000

25000

20000 GDP
PRIMARY
15000
SECOND
10000 TERTIARY

5000

0
3

-4

-6
-

-
88

91

94

97

00

03
82

85

05
20
19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20
Chart 1b Share of Sectors in GDP, constant 1999-00
values

Sector Shares in GDP, Constant 1999-00 Values

60

50
Percent of GDP

40
PRIMARY
30 SECONDARY
TERTIARY
20

10

0
3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7
82- 85- 88- 91- 94- 97- 00- 03- 06-
1 9 19 19 1 9 19 1 9 20 20 2 0
 Chart 2a Annual Growth Rate per decade of
Development and Total Expenditure, 1970-79 to 1990-99

Annual Growth Rates per Decade of Development

and Total Expenditures, %

7
6
5
4
DEV. EXP
3
TOTAL EXP
2
1
0
-1
1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
Chart 2b Annual Growth Rate of Spending on Economic
and Social Services by States, 1972-79 to 1990-1999

Annual Growth rates per Decade of Spending on

Economic and Social Services by States 1972 to
1999

12

10

6 ECON. SEVICES
SOCIAL SERVCES
4

0
1972-79 1980-89 1990-99
Chart 2c Decline in Rural Development Spending,
1985-90 to 2003-4

Rural Develeopment Expenditure and

Infrastructure Expenditure as Percent of NNP
under Economic Reforms

7
6
Percent of NNP

5
RDE
4
IFE
3
2

1
0
1985-90 1993-4 1995-6 1997-8 2000-1 2003-4
Chart 3a Unemployment Rates 1993-4 and
2004-5, All-India Rural, Female Workers

Weekly and Daily Status Unemployment Rates, 1993-4 and 2004-

5

100
90
80
70
60
Weekly status
50
Daily Status
40
30
20
10
0
1993-4 2004-5
Chart 3b. Unemployment Rates during 1993-4
and 2004-5, All-India Rural, Male Workers

90 Weekly and Daily Status Unemployment Rates,

80 1993-4 and 2004-5
70
100
Unem ploym ent Rates

60
80
50 East
40 60 West
Weekly status

30 40 North
Daily Status

20 20
10
0
0 1993-4 2004-5
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr
Chart 4a Coconut Price Trend in India compared to
Indonesia and Philippines, 1991 to 2003

250

200
Price in US $ per Tonne

150 INDO NESIA

INDIA
100 PHILIPPINES

50

0
93
91

95

97

99

01

03
19

19

19

19

19

20

20
Chart 4b Index of Coconut Price 1991 to 2003, base
1991=100

Index of Coconut Producer Price, 1991=100

200
180
160
140
120 INDO NESIA
100 INDIA
80 PHILIPPINES

60
40
20
0
91

97
93

95

99

01

03
19

19

20
19

19

19

20
Chart 4c Price Trend of Pepper 1999-00 to 2004-05

6000
Internation al
5000
Price
4000 Domestic Price

3000 Vietnam M Price

2000
Indonesia M Price
1000

0
1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004-
00 01 02 03 04 05
Price in US$ per Tonne
Chart 4d Index of Pepper Price 1999-00 to 2004-05 with
base 1999-00 = 100

120
Index of Price, 1999-00=100

100 Internation al
Price
80
Domestic Price
60
Vietnam M Price
40
Indonesia M
20 Price

0
20 0

22 1

20 2

20 3

20 4

5
-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0
99

00

01

03

04
02
19
Chart 4e Recent Price Changes, March to December 2008 (Rs. Per
Quintal except Cardamom which is Rs. Per 10 kg)

Price change from March to December 2008

Coconut

Rubber
December
July
March
Cardamom

Coffee

0 5000 10000 15000

Chart 5 Farmer Suicide Rate compared to General
Suicide Rate 2001

Farmer Suicide Rate compared with General

Suicide Rate, Census 2001

20
18
16
Number per 100,000

14
12
Farmer Suicide Rate
10
General Suicide Rate
8
6
4
2
0
Male Female
Chart 6 Direct, Indirect and Total Demand for
Grain with Rising Income
Chart 7a Decadal average Foodgrains Growth rate
and Population Growth rate, 1981 to 2008

Decade average Foodgrain Output Growth and

Population Growth Rates, 1980-1 to 2007-8
3

2.5
P ercent per annum

1.5
FG
1 POP

0.5

0
1981-90 1991-2000 2001-08
 Chart 7b Foodgrains Output and Availability per Capita, India 1989-90 to
2007-08 in Kilograms per Annum

(Triennial average in Kg. per Annum)

185
Foodgrains, Kg. per Capita

180
175
170
165 OUTPUT
160
155 AVAILABILITY
150
145
140
135
1991- 1994- 1997- 2000- 2003- 2006-
92 95 98 01 04 07

Note : Output is Net Output = 0.87.5 times Gross Output

Availability = Net Output + Net Imports – Net Addition to Public Stocks. Both variables divided by total population for per capita values. Chart
updated to 2007-08 from Patnaik, 2007b
Chart 7c Change in Protein Intake, Gms per Capita,
2004-5 compared to 1993-4

Change in Protein Intake, Gms. per Capita , 2004-5 compare to

1993-4

120
Cumulative percent of

100
80
Persons

60 Percent of Persons
40
20
0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Change in Protein Intake
Chart 7d Output per Capita per annum of Cereals
and Starchy Roots in China, 1988 to 2002, in
Kilograms
Per capita supplies of cereals and starchy roots, China, 1988- cereals
2002 (Kgs) starchy roots

210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
 Chart 7e Six most populous Countries in Sub-
Saharan Africa: Index of per Capita Cereals and All
Food staples Output, Base 1979-81 = 100

Six Most Populous Countries : Index of per

Capita Cereals and All Food staples Output, Base
1979-81 = 100

120

100

80
Cereals
60
All Food
40

20

0
1980 1988 1998
Table 1 The Rural Poor as Percent of Rural Population in
India

  1973-74 1993-94 2004-05

NSS ROUND: 28th 50th 61st
RURAL      
Direct Estimate      
MPCE, Rs. required for      
1. 2400 calories 56 325 790
2. 2200 calories 49 260 700
       
Percent of persons below      
3. 2400 calories 72 74.5 87
4. 2200 calories 56.4 58.5 69.5

Official Estimate      
5. Official poverty line, MPCE, Rs. 49 206 356
6. Poverty percentage 56.4 37.3 28.3
7. Calorie Intake at OPL 2200 1970 1820
Chart 8a Official and Directly estimated Poverty Lines, All-India
Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5 .
Monthly per capita Expenditure,

900
800
700
600
500 Official PL
400 Direct PL
Rs.

300
200
100
0
19 19 1983 19 20
73-4 77-8 93-4 04-5

Source: Table 1 lines 1 and 5. Official poverty lines update the cost of a 1973-4 basket while direct poverty
lines apply the official nutrition norm to the current data at each point of time
Chart 8b Official and Directly estimated percent of
Persons in Poverty, All-India Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5,
obtained by applying the respective Poverty Lines

100
90
Percent of Persons

80
70 Official Poverty
60
50 Percentage
40 Direct Poverty
30 Percentage
20
10
0
-4

-8

-4

-5
83
73

93

04
77

19
19

19

19

20

Source: Table 1, lines 3 and 6.

Chart 8c Declining Calorie Intake accessible at Official Poverty
Lines, All-India Rural 1973-4 to 2004-5

Calorie Intake per day per capita

1600
1400
Calories at
1200
Official Poverty
1000
Line less 1000
800
Official Calorie
600
norm less 1000
400
200
0
19 19 1983 19 20
73-4 77-8 93-4 04-5

Source : Table 1 line 7

Chart 9 Per Capita Cereal Output per Annum in Kg., World 1963
to 2005 ( Five year average centred on specified year)

World Per Capita Cereal Output Kg.

400

350

300
Kilogram per Annum, Kg.

250

200 Per Capita Cereal Kg.

150

100

50

0
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2005

Source: FAOSTAT after 1988 and for earlier years various issues, FAO Food Outlook
Chart 10 Use of Corn for Ethanol and declining net Output, USA

Use of Corn for Ethanol, USA

350
300 Corn Output
Million Tonne

250
200 Net of Ethanol
150 use
100 Ethanol from
50 Corn
0
2002-3 2007-8 2008-9

Source: US Department of Agriculture data