The Money Supply

Process
Keith Bain
&
Peter Howells
 Two approaches to the analysis of money
supply
• There are broadly speaking two approaches to
the analysis of money supply changes and
both involve the manipulation of a series of
(related) identities.
– The Base Multiplier Approach
– The Funds Flow Approach
 THE BASE MULTIPLIER APPROACH
• The first characteristic of the base-multiplier
(B-M) approach is that it focuses upon stocks.
– monetary base (M0) and
– the stock of money (e.g. M4).
• M4 is a multiple of M0
 THE BASE MULTIPLIER APPROACH
• Firstly it assumes the stability of two behavioral
relationships.
• Secondly, while it is true that the monetary base
consists of central bank liabilities, it does not
automatically follow that the central bank either can
or even desires to control these liabilities.
• Finally, there is a question about whether
concentrating on stock equilibrium is very useful
when the underlying variables are subject to
continuous change.
• Put briefly, a monetary system in which the
money supply changes only as the result of
the central bank’s deliberate adjustment of
the monetary base, is a system in which the
money supply is exogenous — exogenous at
least with respect to the preferences of other
agents in the economic system.
 FORMAL EXAMINATION OF THE BASE
MULTIPLIER APPROACH
• We begin by defining the two stocks:
• M =Cp + Dp
• B = Cp + Cb + Db
– M=broad money
– Cp =notes and coin in circulation with the non-bank public
– Dp=public holdings of bank deposits
– B= the monetary base= M0
– Cb=notes and coin held by banks
– Db=Commercial banks’ own deposits at the central bank
• R =Cb + Db= Reserves , then B can be rewritten as:
– B = Cp + R
• At any particular time, there will be a monetary base of given
value and similarly a given quantity of broad money and it is a
simple task to create a ratio

• The first insight comes when we divide through by the non-

bank public’s holdings of deposits

• For convenience, let Cp/Dp = α, and let R/Dp = β, then we can

rewrite 3.5 as:
 Two Insights
• The first insight is that the volume of broad money, in relation
to the base, depends upon the two ratios
– α= the public’s cash ratio, and
– Β = the banks’ reserve ratio.

• in a fractional reserve system, β will have a value less than

one and the term (α + 1)/(α + β ), let us call it m, will be a
multiplier.
• Recall that the base consists of liabilities of the central
bank then, if we assume that the central bank is both
willing and able to manipulate these liabilities at its
discretion, then we get a second, more dramatic, insight,
namely that
– the size of the money stock is determined by the central
bank’s willingness to supply assets comprising the monetary
base.
• These assumptions amount to a description of a
monetary system where the money supply is
exogenously determined
 The size of the Money Multiplier
• In an unrealistically simple world, α and β
might be treated as fixed.
• But they are both portfolio decisions about
which the public and banks respectively are
likely to have preferences depending upon
relative prices and other constraints.
• The size of Money Multiplier hence depends
upon the values of α and β
 Factors affecting α, the public’s cash ratio

• Two factors are particularly important

1. im - money’s ‘own rate’,
the decision to divide money holdings between notes and
coin(‘cash’) and bank deposits must surely depend upon any
rate of interest paid on deposits, money’s ‘own rate’. The
higher the rate paid on deposits (and the wider the range of
deposits on which it is paid), the less willing, ceteris paribus,
people will be to hold cash.
2. Technology-reduced ‘shoe leather costs’
• Electronic Payments
• ATMs
• both tend to reduce the public’s cash ratio, α gets smaller.
• As regards influences upon the public’s cash
ratio, therefore, we can surmise that α will
depend to some extent upon at least two
factors, money’s own rate and technological
conditions.
 Factors Affecting β
• reserves yields no interest and that, in most systems deposits at the
central bank are also non-interest bearing. This means that holding
reserves acts like a tax on banking
• Banks’ decisions to hold reserves will depend
– firstly upon their cost. Where reserves pay no interest then the cost can be
proxied by the return on alternative liquid assets, which might be proxied by the
bond rate, ib.
– Where reserves do pay interest, then the cost will be the return on reserves, ir
relative to the bond rate.
– The quantity of reserves held will depend also on the cost of being short, that is
upon the rediscount rate charged for lender of last resort facilities, id.
– mandatory reserve requirement, RR, and,
– lastly, upon the variability of inward and outward flows to which banks are
subject, σ
• In summary, then:
• Since the money supply depends upon both the base and
the multiplier we can write:

• and since we know how α and β are likely to respond to a

number of influences money supply determined as follows:

• A change in B is a change in the multiplicand; changes in all

other variables cause a change in the size of the multiplier
itself.
 Shape of the Money Supply Curve
• In our discussion of β, we saw that banks would
economise on reserves if returns on other assets
increased;
• this would reduce the value of their reserve ratio
• and this in turn increases the money supply.
• In short, the money supply shows some degree of
elasticity with regard to the bond rate and since the
bond rate appears in the diagram on the vertical axis,
the effect of changes in the bond rate must be captured
by giving a positive slope to the money supply curve.
‘interest-endogeneity’
 The Flow of Funds approach
• the base-multiplier approach focused upon
stocks
• the flow of funds (FoF) approach concentrates
upon changes in stocks, i.e. on flows.
• There is a connection with the B-M approach in
that one of the flows is the change in money
stock; but the other flow which dominates the
FoF approach is the flow of bank lending to the
non-bank public.
 ‘CREDIT-COUNTERPARTS’ APPROACH.
• This is strictly speaking the net change in the stock of bank
loans — the difference over time in the stock of loans
taking account of both new loans made and loans repaid.
• The flow of money is shown as ΔM,
– the flow of new loans is shown as ΔLp (for new lending to the
non-bank private sector) and
– ΔLg (for new lending to the public sector)
• Because it focuses upon flows of new lending and their
ability to create deposits, the FoF approach is sometimes
known as the ‘credit-counterparts’ approach.
• As with the B-M approach, we begin with the money supply
identity:
M ≡ Cp + Dp
• and then rewrite it in flows:
ΔM ≡ ΔCp + ΔDp
• We next concentrate on the deposit element and use the bank
balance sheet identity to remind ourselves that since
– deposits (liabilities) must be matched by loans (assets) then the same
must be true about changes.
• On the asset side, loans can be decomposed into loans to the
private and to the public sector.
ΔDp ≡ ΔLp + ΔLg
• Concentrate now on bank loans to the public sector.
• These are just one way of financing the public sector
and, because of its monetary implications and short-
term nature, it tends to be a residual source of
financing — something to be resorted to after all other
forms of finance.
• So it follows that we can locate the flow of new bank
lending to the public sector (PSBR) within the public
sector’s total borrowing requirement:
ΔLg ≡ PSBR − ΔGp − ΔCp ± Δext
• ΔLg ≡ PSBR − ΔGp − ΔCp ± Δext
where
• PSBR is the public sector’s total borrowing
requirement
• ΔGp represents net sales of government bonds to the
general public.
• Δext can take a positive or negative value. Δext refers
to the public sector buying foreign currency assets this
adds to the public sector’s borrowing requirement.
• We can then substitute 3.16 into 3.15 to show
all the sources of change in deposits
ΔDp ≡ ΔLp + PSBR − ΔGp − ΔCp ± Δext
• to show all sources of monetary change
ΔM ≡ PSBR − ΔGp ± Δext + ΔLp
 The two approaches compared
• The B-M approach consists of a statement about the
monetary base and two behavioural relations
• We can write the FoF approach in exactly the same
terms if we remember that the monetary base
consists of cash held by the non-bank public (Cp)
together with bank lending to the public sector in
the form of reserve assets (Db + Cb).
• ΔLg= Reserves (Db + Cb) +Non reserve lending (ΔGb)
• So (in changes):
• ΔB ≡ ΔCp + (ΔLg − ΔGb)
• substituting and rearranging:
ΔB ≡ ΔCp − ΔGb + (PSBR − ΔGp ± Δext − ΔCp )
• Finally
ΔM ≡ ΔB + ΔGb + ΔBLp
• What this shows is that we can make control of changes
in the money stock appear to depend upon control of the
– base (ΔB)
– banks’ demand for government debt (ΔGb) and
– lending to the non-bank private sector (ΔLp), almost as easily a