Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Trading at NCEL
ICAP
Karachi
Thursday, May 13, 2004
Agenda
• Derivatives
• Forwards & Futures
• Hedging Strategies
• Futures Exchange – An antidote
to WTO
• NCEL
• Q&A
The Nature of Derivatives
• To hedge risks
• To speculate (take a view on the
future direction of the market)
• To lock in an arbitrage profit
• To change the nature of a liability
• To change the nature of an investment
without incurring the costs of selling
one portfolio and buying another
Forward Contracts
Bid Offer
Spot 1.4452 1.4456
1-month forward 1.4435 1.4440
3-month forward 1.4402 1.4407
6-month forward 1.4353 1.4359
12-month forward 1.4262 1.4268
Example
• On August 16, 2001 the treasurer of a
corporation enters into a long forward
contract to buy £1 million in six months at
an exchange rate of 1.4359
• This obligates the corporation to pay
$1,435,900 for £1 million on February 16,
2002
Futures Contracts
• Agreement to buy or sell an asset for a
certain price at a certain time
• Similar to forward contract
• Whereas a forward contract is traded
OTC, a futures contract is traded on an
exchange
• Virtually no credit risk as the exchange is a
CCP
Other Key Points About Futures
• Standardized contract
• Quality is pre-defined and permissible variation
is settled through premium or discount
• Requires a margin prior to taking a position
• They are settled daily – marked to market
• Variation margin is payable in cash only
• Closing out a futures position involves entering
into an offsetting trade
• Most contracts are closed out before maturity –
98%
Forward Contracts vs Futures
Contracts
FORWARDS FUTURES
Private contract between 2 parties Exchange traded
• Agreement to:
– buy 100 oz. of gold @ US$300/oz.
in December (COMEX)
– sell £62,500 @ 1.5000 US$/£ in
March (CME)
– sell 1,000 bbl. of oil @ US$20/bbl.
in April (NYMEX)
What Determines Basis ?
Basis = S – F
p p
B<0 B>0
F P
S P
S P
F P
Time Time
(a) (b)
Gold: An Arbitrage
Opportunity?
• Suppose that:
- The spot price of gold is US$300
- The 1-year forward price of gold is
US$340
- The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5%
per annum
• Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
(We ignore storage costs)?
The Forward Price of Gold
If the spot price of gold is S and the forward
price for a contract deliverable in T years is F,
then
F = S (1+r )T
where r is the 1-year (domestic currency) risk-
free rate of interest.
In our examples, S = 300, T = 1, and r =0.05 so
that
F = 300(1+0.05) = 315
Oil: An Arbitrage Opportunity?
Suppose that:
- The spot price of oil is US$19
- The quoted 1-year futures price of
oil is US$25
- The 1-year US$ interest rate is
5% per annum
- The storage costs of oil are 2%
per annum
• Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
Delivery
• If a contract is not closed out before maturity, it
usually settled by delivering the assets underlying the
contract.
450
400
350
300
250
200
Jan-00 May-00 S ep-00 Jan-01 May-01 S e p-01 Jan-02 May-02 S e p-02 Jan-03 May-03 S ep-03 Jan-04
Sigma = 2 VaR @ 99%
7 .0 0 0 0 %
6 .0 0 0 0 %
5 .0 0 0 0 %
4 .0 0 0 0 %
S e rie s1
S e rie s2
3 .0 0 0 0 %
2 .0 0 0 0 %
1.0 0 0 0 %
0 .0 0 0 0 %
Sigma = 4 VaR @ 99%
10 .0 0 0 0 %
9 .0 0 0 0 %
8 .0 0 0 0 %
7 .0 0 0 0 %
6 .0 0 0 0 %
S e rie s1
5 .0 0 0 0 %
S e rie s2
4 .0 0 0 0 %
3 .0 0 0 0 %
2 .0 0 0 0 %
1.0 0 0 0 %
0 .0 0 0 0 %
Example of a Futures Trade
• An investor takes a long position in 2
December gold futures contracts on June
5
– contract size is 100 oz.
– futures price is US$400
– margin requirement is US$2,000/contract (US$4,000
in total)
– maintenance margin is US$1,500/contract
(US$3,000 in total)
A Possible Outcome
400.00 4,000
5-Jun 397.00 (600) (600) 3,400 0
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
13-Jun 393.30 (420) (1,340) 2,660 + 1,340 = 4,000
. . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . . < 3,000
19-Jun 387.00 (1,140) (2,600) 2,740 + 1,260 = 4,000
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
26-Jun 392.30 260 (1,540) 5,060 0
Futures Market
Futures Exchange
• Contracts are standardized
• Trading is centralized
• Market-making is competitive
• Third-party guarantee of contract
performance
• Do not have to borrow or own
underlying to short sell
• Trading is certificateless
• Low transaction costs
How Do Derivative Contracts
Improve Market Operations?
• Aid in price discovery and serve as a
reference point
– Participants attracted to markets
– Additional resources spent on information
collection and analysis
– Arbitrage between markets transmits the
new information throughout the complex of
markets
"Forward Looking" Prices
• Futures prices are estimates of future cash
prices
• Price basing refers to the practice of using
futures prices as a base or reference point
for other transactions
Do Futures Stabilize Cash
Prices?
• Investment is encouraged because of low
transaction costs
• Investors are likely to drive prices to levels
justified by economic fundamentals
• Volatility in futures and options prices
transmitted to cash by arbitrage
• Removes distortions and fragmentation
How Do Derivative Contracts Improve
Market Operations?
• Facilitate the exchange of risk across
market participants
– A commercial risk is transferred to
someone more willing to bear the risk
– Exchange-traded futures facilitate trade
between strangers
– May improve the liquidity of underlying
cash markets
Wheat Price Comparison between Major &
Minor Pakistani Markets
(For Three Years)
1000
900
800
Sowing
Rupees/100 Kg
Sowing Harvesting
Harvesting Sowing
700
Harvesting
600
Red = Average of Three Major Markets
Yellow = Average of 9 minor Markets
500
• Hedgers
• Investors
• Arbitrageurs
Some of the large trading losses in
derivatives occurred because individuals
who had a mandate to hedge risks switched
to being speculators
Long & Short Hedges
• A long futures hedge is appropriate when
you know you will purchase an asset in
the future and want to lock in the price
• A short futures hedge is appropriate
when you know you will sell an asset in
the future & want to lock in the price
Arguments in Favor of Hedging
500
400
300
200
100
-
Source:Aptma Website
NCEL: An antidote to WTO
Textiles - End of Quotas!
• Sudden drop in protection after 50 years
• Production and market share is unfrozen
• Quota holding is no longer passport to Western
Markets
• Market share will be gained through international
competitiveness
• More players leads to falling prices
• “There is always someone cheaper”
• Hedging platform is a necessity for the value
added textile sector
Price Trend
Cotton Prices
Cotton Prices
Exchange Rates
Percentage Change of Average Monthly Yarn
prices of 21/1
40%
1M 3M 6M
30%
20%
%age Change
10%
0%
-10%
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
-20%
-30%
Orders Orders
Order Routing
On a daily basis
Upon expiry Clearing & Settlement
of contract
Settlement Price
Delivery Order Rate Computation
Mark-to-Market
Contract Maturity
Processing Post Trade Risk
Checks
Settlement Payments
Delivery Orders Receipt Margins
Delivery Allocation Variation Margins Fee
Delivery Margins Online Bank
Quality & Quantity Transfers
Certification
Each matched order has a
buyer and a seller
Warehouses Clearing Banks
Contract Development
Seed Cotton
Lint Cotton
Weaving
Spinning Yarn Processing Apparel &
Garments
Knitting
Syn. Fibre
Price Trend of Pakistani Wheat
(For Three Cropping Seasons)
900
850
Rupees/100 Kg
800
Ha
rv
Sowing Period e st i
ng
Pe
750 rio
d
700
650
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics
*Prices are the Average of 12 Pakistani Markets
Agriculture Sector
• Tenant farmers do not have access to
organized financial sector
• Borrows from unorganized sector at rates
as high as 120% per annum
• Forced to sell immediately upon harvest –
no holding power
• Compromise on inputs – low yield per acre
• Lack of infrastructure – warehousing
• Middleman provides a one stop shop!
Commodity Based Financing
• Structured form of financing with an
objective of transferring risk from an entity
to a commodity
• In discussion with a NGO to undertake
financing as a pilot project on the following
basis :
1. Pre-sowing for inputs against NCEL
contract (short) and social collateral
2. Post-harvest and upon storage against a
warehouse receipt
Financing Mechanism
Entire profits go to the
farmer if NGO manages
Farmers price risk using NCEL Middleman
Middleman effectively
eliminated from process
Cash
Crop
Seeds
Other NGO views futures prices at
inputs
NCEL and enters into a contract
Warehouse Receipt
NGO NCEL
Cash
360° Company Update
• Hardware and software has been installed
• Software is being configured
• Gold and Cotton Yarn contract specifications
are being developed
• Regulations are being refined and have to be
approved by the Board and SECP
• 95% hiring is complete
• Online bank transfer arrangements are being
finalized with MCB
360° Company Update Cont’d….
• Security Deposit
• Clearing Limit – Members
• Initial Margin – Members & Clients
• Pre-Trade Check
• Segregation
• Bank Accounts – Members & Clients
• Sub-accounts at CDC
• Mark-to-market daily settlement - online
• Position Limits – to counter manipulation
Margining
• Example - Gold
– Clearing Deposit: Rs1.5 million = 4%
– Initial Margin: Rs0.5 million = 4%
• Initial Margin: 99% VaR over 1 day
• Spot Month Margin: 99% VaR over 10 days
• Delivery Margin: 99% VaR over 3 days
Market Surveillance
• Apart from legal requirements, NCEL will
demonstrate self-regulatory presence as it
is just good business practice ….
• We must win confidence of participants
and demonstrate that there is integrity in
our market
• Must protect investors in our marketplace
Market Surveillance Cont’d…