CRIME

ANALYSIS
BRAIN
GAMES
 #1
• Stephen was looking at a photo. Someone asked him,
"Whose picture are you looking at?" He replied: "I
don't have any brother or sister, but this man's father
is my father's son." So, whose picture was Stephen
looking at?

A: Stephen’s Son
 #2
• There was a robbery in which a lot of goods were
stolen. The robber(s) left in a truck. It is known that :
(1) Nobody else could have been involved other than
A, B and C. (2) C never commits a crime without A's
participation. (3) B does not know how to drive. So,
is A innocent or guilty?

A: A is Guilty
 #3
• Suppose there is this little town with a finite number
of people: (1) No two inhabitants have exactly the
same number of hairs. (2) No inhabitant has exactly
409 hairs. (3) There are more inhabitants than there
are hairs on the head of any inhabitant. So, what is
the largest possible number of inhabitants in that little
town?
A: 409
"Everything is related to everything else, but near things are
more related than distant things.“
Tobler's First Law of Geography

"Knowing where things are, and why, is essential to rational

decision making“
Jack Dangermond, Environmental
Systems Research Institute (ESRI)
 GAP ANALYSIS
Present
System in
INTERVENTION
Crime
Analysis GAP
 GAP ANALYSIS
Present
System in
INTERVENTION
Crime
Analysis GAP

GIS BCA
 GIS-BASED CRIME ANALYSIS
A scientific management
tool for crime analysis

Provides a logical basis for

effective and efficient police
intervention
Overlays data sets
Localities, AORs, critical
facilities and infrastructures,
troop movement and
deployment, etc.
Crime Database
 Identifies crime
hotspots

along with other

patterns, trends, Enhances spatial and
time series analysis
and relationships
 ACTUAL CRIME REPORTING AND CRIME
ANALYSIS PROCESS
“Accurate data is a key to a good diagnosis.”
– Starts with a RELIABLE and ACCURATE crime data.
– Validation of crime data each week.
– Blotter vs crime data reported to DIDM vs crime
encoded to CIRS (e-Blotter).
– Reports result of validation and current crime data for
the week.
 ACTUAL CRIME REPORTING AND CRIME
ANALYSIS PROCESS
o General overview of the crime situation.
o Presented in tables and graphs.
o Drill down from Regional to District to Station level (QUANTITATIVE).
(Includes but is not limited to the following questions.)
• What District/Station is/are the main contributor/s in the
increase/decrease of specific crime?
• What are the reasons for the increase/decrease?
• What interventions are implemented?
• What are the peculiarities of the area?
• Is there shifting of crimes? (from 1 crime to another; 1 place to
another)
 CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS
• CRIME REPORTING AND CRIME ANALYSIS
o Analysis of QUALITATIVE data.
• Classify crimes by motive, place of occurrence, time of
occurrence, instrument of choice.
o Rationale: To determine whether these crimes are preventable by
the police.
o EXAMPLE OF QUALITATIVE DATA
• Murder/Homicide (M/H)
• Robbery/Theft (R/T)
• Carnapping (MV)
• Carnapping (MC)
 CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS
• Why the need to break down crime into modes of
commission?

 Each criminal or crime group has its own distinct behaviour

and specialty.
 Each crime has various dimensions.

 Need to identify specific crime patterns and trends for

better analysis.
 CRIME and GEOGRAPHY
 Location is very vital in analysis
a. CRIME OPPORTUNITY THEORY
(Brantingham & Brantingham, 1990; Felson and Clarke, 1998; Bottoms and Wiles,
2002)

 Offenders tend to steer towards areas that are known to them.

 A crime occurs only within the intersection of the activity spaces

of offenders and victims.
 CRIME and GEOGRAPHY
 Location is very vital in analysis
b. REPEAT VICTIMIZATION RULE (Farrel and Pease, 1993; Pease and
Laycock, 1996; Clarke, 1999; Clarke and Eck, 2003)

 People and places that have been victimized in the past have
a higher likelihood of being victimized again.

HOT DOTS are people;

HOT PRODUCTS are property;
HOT SPOTS are locations.
 CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS
o Tools:
• Spatial Analysis
o geographical analysis which seeks to explain patterns of
crimes.
o Presents volume and concentration of crimes.
o Aids in managing deployment of personnel and resources.
• Crime Clock & Time Series Analysis
o Frequency of crime.
o Surges of specific crime at specific hour.
 CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS
o Tools:
• Criminal Profiling
o Identification of specific characteristics of individuals
committing the crime through;
• Systematic observation process
• Analysis of crime scene
• Victim
• Forensic evidence
• Known facts of crime
 CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS
o Tools:
• Correlation Analysis
o Measures relationship between 2 variables. Interventions and Crimes;
Crimes and CSE
• Examination of interventions implemented.
o Are the interventions implemented effective?
o Is there a need for augmentation? Police augmentation and community
stakeholders cooperation coordination.
o Is there a need for leadership change?
o How far have we done in terms of investigation of cases?
 OTHER CRIME ANALYSIS TOOLS
o Near Neighbor Hierarchical Cluster
Analysis (NNHCA)
o Hotspot Significance Test (HST)
o Heat map
o Time Significance Test (TST)
o Critical Time Monitoring Method (CTMM)
 Robbery Crime Clock (Collated)
July/15 – Jan 3/16
250

200 194
178
166 159
150 143 145 140
126 134
119 118 120 122
109 107 111 113
99 96 92 101
100
81 78 84

50

0
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM
TIME SIGNIFICANCE TEST
TST Chi-square :

 Ensure that the observed peak hour

did not happen by chance (that the
pattern will continue without intervention)
Significant - (≤ 0.05)
Not Signficant -  (> 0.05)
 Critical Time Monitoring Method
 Management tool used to precisely view and understand
correlation of certain types of crime to the time of day or
day of the week
 Visual means to highlight critical times that require more
attention
Critical Time Monitoring Method
CTMM

MANAGEMENT TOOL
To determine correlation of a TOOL
certain crime to a certain time for managing deployment
of the day and movement of police
VISUAL MEANS
forces and multipliers
to highlight critical times that BAC
require more attention K
 HOTSPOTS AND HEAT MAP

• Hotspot (Near Neighbor Hierarchical Cluster

Analysis)
The hotspot perspective suggests that the police can
reduce crime by focusing their limited resources on
the small number of places that generate a majority
of crime problems.”
(Eck and Weisburd, 1995)
• Heatmap
 Hotspot and Crime Clock
THEFT- Pickpocket

30
HOT SPOT
25 26
20 20 CRIME CLOCK
18
15 15
11 12 13 13
10 9 10 10
7 6
5 5 5 5 5 5
2 2 2 2 2 1
0

HST = Significant TST = Significant

INTERV
ENTION
PATROL
PLAN
ROUTE
(sample)
 CRIME ANALYSIS PROCESS

• Consider role of community in crime prevention

• Intervention based on Situation - providing

interventions based on the situation on the ground.
Thank you