Lecture nr. 7 Lecture Contents • What is competitiveness • Differences with productivity and innovation • Ways to interpret competitiveness • Porter: The Competitive Advantage of Nations • Case study: automobile industry/Dicken 2007 • Case-study Eurozone and Greece How to achieve international competitiveness in a global economy? • Orthodox View (mainstream): Mundell Fleming • Via cost/wage reductions and currency devaluations • Different combinations of flexible labour markets and flexible exchange rates; • exchange rate as a substitute instrument for competitive advantage How to achieve international competitiveness in a global economy? • Heterodox view: deflation and devaluation will not work to achieve higher international competitiveness, since lower wages means also lower aggregate demand and since a fall in the level of prices increases the level of existing debt • Focus on technological development, innovation and a robust industrial policy What is Competitiveness? • Competitiveness at the level of company: is the ability to provide products and services more efficiently and effectively than the relevant competitors (sustained success without protection or subsidies) (firm’s profitability, measures of cost and quality) • At the industry level, competitiveness is the ability of the nation’s firms to achieve sustained success against foreign competitors again without protection or subsidies What is competitiveness? • At National level: Laura D’Andrea Tyson’s Who is Bashing whom?, competitiveness is “our ability to produce goods and services that meet the test of international competition while our citizens enjoy a standard of living that is both rising and sustainable” (quoted in Krugman, 1994, pg. 31-32) • Most see the term synonymous with productivity. Michael Porter states: “the Only meaningful concept of competitiveness at the national level is productivity” (1990) What is competitiveness? • World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report defines competitiveness as “the set of institutions, policies and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country” and IMD’s world Competitiveness Yearbook defines it similarly as how “an economy manages the totality of its resources and competencies to increase the prosperity of its population” (2012) Michael E. Porter (1990) • “A Nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade. Companies gain advantage against the world’s best competitors because of pressure and challenge. They benefit from having strong domestic rivals, aggressive home-based suppliers and demeaning local customers” (pg.1) • “The only meaningful concept of competitiveness at the national level is productivity” (pg.5) Michael E. Porter (1990) • “Productivity is the prime determinant of a nation long-run standard of living; it is the root cause of national per capita income. The productivity of human resources determines employee wages; the productivity with which capital is employed determines the return it earns for its holders” (pag.6) • “Defining national competitiveness as achieving a trade surplus or balanced trade it is inappropriate. The expansion of exports because of low wages and a weak currency at the same time that the nation imports sophisticated goods that its companies cannot produce competitively, may bring trade into balance but lowers the nation’s standard of living” (pg/7-8) Atkinson (2013) • “the true definition of competitiveness is the ability of a region to export more in value added terms than it imports” (pg.2) • Under this definition, a nation may run a large trade surplus, but if it does so by providing large discounts to its exporters or by restricting imports it would not be truly competitive, for such policies would reduce its terms of trade by requiring its residents to give up some of their income to foreign consumers and/or pay higher prices for foreign goods and services Atkinson 2013 • A competitive economy is one with a trade surplus, few barriers to imports and limited discounts to exporters; • How does productivity fit into competitiveness? Productivity growth can enable competitiveness especially if it is concentrated in traded sectors which lowers costs and enables firms to sell more in global markets without relying on government provided discounts; it can also be unrelated to competitiveness if concentrated in non-trade sectors like grocery stores, nursing homes, electric utilities Innovation and productivity • OECD defines innovation as “the implementation of a new or significantly improved product (that is a physical good or service), process, a new marketing method, or a new organizational method in business practices, workplace organization, or external relations” (Ministerial Report, 2010). • While innovation can increase productivity and competitiveness it is not synonymous with either Productivity • Economic output per unit of input; • Economies have three ways to grow over the medium and long-term: growth in workers, growth in productivity across the board and growth in the share of activity in high-productivity industries; • “The Lion’s share of productivity growth in most nations comes not from changing the sectoral mix to higher productivity industries but from all industries, even low productivity ones, boosting their productivity” (Atkinson, 2013, p.5) Implications for policy • Nations need to have well-articulated and distinct strategies addressing competitiveness, innovation and productivity • A traded sector competitiveness strategy should address targeted policies, incl.trade, tax, talent and technology policies that improve the national competitiveness strategy • An innovation strategy should focus on barriers to innovation and the needed support systems (investment in R and D, support in technology transfers) that can spur more innovation in all three major sectors of an economy Implications for policy • A productivity strategy should examine all major industries to determine barriers to growth and the policies that can promote both the growth and shift effects (development of technologies such as smart grids, broadband, etc) Thomas Berger 2008 • Many authors reject the use of term competitiveness in the national context, e.g. Krugman 1994; • The argument is that countries do not engage in a 0- sum game; trade is not about absolute advantage but comparative advantage, that is the advantage in producing one good against another within the economy; • Countries do not go out of business like companies do Berger 2008 • Firm-level competitiveness: easy to observe: • “They have to grow, which can be measured in turnover and market share; they have to be profitable, which can be measured in terms of profit and they must successfully meet their customers’ expectations which can be measured by customer’s satisfaction. In short, the more competitive a firm will be, the greater the market share will be…In general, indicators of competitiveness could be ratios concerning profitability and productivity of a company” (94) Berger 2008 • The market based view: focuses on environmental factors of a company to explain competitive advantage and goes back to structure-performance-hypothesis based on ideas of industrial organization theory: the structure of a market has the influence on companies and their conduct which leads to different performances Berger 2008 • The resource-based view: sees firm-level competitiveness as being based on the successful utilization of internal resources; to gain competitive advantage, a company must ensure that the relevant resources like human resources are specific to the firm and not capable of imitation by rivals Berger 2008 • There are 4 concepts of competitiveness: the ability to sell, • the ability to earn, • the ability to adjust • and the ability to attract Berger 2008 • 1. Ability to sell: treats nations like companies and asserts that nations are playing a 0 sum-game, they compete internationally for market shares • Price based competitiveness and non-price competitiveness • A. price-based competitiveness: focuses on short- term macroeconomic management that affect relative prices of national goods and services relative to other countries Berger 2008 • The currency should be devalued and prices will be lower for foreign customers • Boltho (1996,2): “the desirable degree of international competitiveness…could be defined as the level of the real exchange rate which, in conjunction with appropriate domestic policies, ensured internal and (broadly defined) external balance” • But, Many countries prospered despite appreciating currencies or high interest rates and devaluation can be seen as a double-edged sword Berger 2008 • Supporters in this view emphasize the importance of internal input prices, be it labor or other production factor; if costs are lower this would lead to a higher national competitiveness compared to other nations (absolute advantage); this is a direct application of firm competitiveness on the national level: lower costs are the basis of lower prices and lead to higher market shares • Lower wages means lower demand for the products these companies sell; relative unit labor costs or terms of trade (export prices compared to import prices) Berger 2008 • B. Non-price based competitiveness • Classical view; McFetridge (1995,28): “Some of the measures of good national trade performance suggested in the literature are: a) a shift in export composition toward higher value added or high-technology products; b) constant or increasing world market shares and c) a current account surplus Berger 2008 • Discriminating low-tech industries is wrong; • For b) one measure would be share in world trade or world exports (but as Krugman points out for some countries exports stand only for a small fraction of GDP, they rely on home demand rather than external demand); • c.) countries with high exports are superior in some industries just because there is high demand for these products, helps economy to prosper and overcome a weak domestic demand Berger 2008 • 2. Ability to earn, productivity and performance orientation the results of the economy will indicate competitiveness: it is assumed that a higher degree of competitiveness leads to a higher GDP or income and to a higher level of living; Two definitions: level of GDP per capita and one that focuses on GDP growth per capita When comparing these two according to the catch up hypothesis, countries with a lower GDP per capita can grow faster more easily than countries with a higher GDP Berger 2008 • Even when accepting GDP as a proxy for competitiveness, the problem of inequality and the distribution of income remains an important question; • McFetridge (1995,26): “Per capita income growth is the best indicator of national economic success. The most important source of per capita income growth is TFP growth. In practice, either per capita income of TFP growth will serve as an indicator of national competitiveness” Berger 2008 • C. Ability to adjust: Innovation and flexibility • The ability to adjust to changes in the environment is seen as being crucial for the competitiveness of nations as a whole; • The ability to adjust the economic and political system and the ability to adjust via innovations and technological change (business level) (free markets, open society, entrepreneurship • Schumpeter that innovation foster growth (1939, 1942) Berger 2008 • D. Ability to attract: • Competitiveness is the possibility to attract outside investments such as financial capital but also human capital; FDIs; places that yield highest returns; • Vertical FDIs (looking for production location) • Horizontal FDIs (looking for new markets) Porter 1990 • Why some nations succeed and other fail in international competitiveness? • The project aim to explain the competitive differences across nations and saw international trade and foreign direct investments as the prerequisites of a high productivity; • The principle goal of every nation, according to Porter “is to produce a high and rising standard of living” (Porter 1990,6), measured as national per capita income. This standard of living is dependent on productivity Porter 1990 • He chose the term “competitive advantage of nations” rather than competitiveness; • Diamond of competitive advantage Dicken (2007): The Automobile Industry • The automobile Industry- The Industry of Industries; • Since 1960s the global production of cars increased more than 3 times; • 4 mil. People around the world employed directly in making cars and a further 9-10 mil. Are employed in supplier industries • If we add those selling and servicing vehicles we reach a total of 20 mil. workers Dicken (2007): The Automobile Industry • Historically, the development of a country’s automobile industry went through phases: • 1. Stage 1: the import of complete vehicles tends to be limited because of high transportation costs and by government import restrictions; • 2. Local assembly of vehicles from full kit of component parts permits transportation costs savings and the opportunity to make minor product specifications for the local market Dicken (2007): The Automobile Industry
• Stage 3: Assembly involving a mix of imported
and locally sourced components, both depends upon and encourages the development of a local components industry • Stage 4: full-scale manufacture of automobiles. Dicken (2007): The Automobile Industry • Global shifts in the automobile industry: current production localised in Europe 43%, East Asia 32% and North America 18%; • Together these 3 regions amount for 93% of the global production of cars; • More than 2/3 of global production is concentrated in just 7 countries; • Japan is by a large margin the world’s leading automobile producer followed by Germany, US, France, Korea, Spain, China; • Spectacular growth of production in Japan • A dramatic decline of production in USA Dicken (2007): The Automobile Industry • Significant growth of automobile production in the emerging market economies of Eastern Europe, notably in Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia; • USA has an enormous trade deficit on automobiles of 112mil $, while Japan has a trade surplus of 92 mil$ and such imbalances are the cause of considerable friction; • In summary, an industry dominated by USA in the 1960s and less by Europe was transformed during the 1970s and 1980s by the growth of Japan as leading car manufacturer Dicken (2007): The Automobile Industry • Changing patterns of consumption: aspirational goods; changes in personal income levels and in consumer tastes and preferences over time as the extent to which car ownership has already spread through the population are key variables in influencing the demand for automobiles. • Demand is highly cyclical, long-term secular changes in demand and it shows signs of segmentation and fragmentation Dicken (2007) Core changes since 1980s 1.Global restructuring of main competitors in automotive markets (rise of Asian manufactures, M&As and rationalisations), process of fast globalisation 2. Geographical changes (over and above the entry of new competitors from middle-income LDCs), with US and European manufacturers re-locating production and supply chains relatively close to their home locations and markets but low-cost/relatively high- quality cost and infrastructure conditions 3. Changes to assembly-supplier relations (out-sourcing and ‘industrial condominiums’), concentration of higher value- added activities in clusters combined with dispersion(globalization) of overall activities Dicken (2007) •Core technological changes: • ◦ Emergence of lean production in 1980s that replaces standardized production of low range of models to high economies of scale (Just in time production) • ◦ Core trigger: Rise of Japanese competition since late 1970s • ◦ Core features of technological changes • Shared platforms (reduced number of platforms) • Modularization Dicken (2007) • The state is determining the degree of access to its domestic market that the state allows, including the terms under which foreign firms are permitted to establish production plants • The state establishes support to its domestic firms and the extent to which state discriminates against foreign firms. • EU common external tariff of 11%; USA 3%, Japan 0% • Tariffs are higher in developing markets but more prevalent NTB and import quotas Dicken (2007) • Strategies of industries: • A. USA: GM and Ford dominated the world and industry for decades dues to massive size of North American markets for cars; the first to transnationalize production in Canada then Europe; • Early transnational ventures were triggered by the existence of protective barriers around major markets, high cost of transportation • Ford’s response in the mid 1990s to intensified competition in all its major markets was to embark on a hugely ambitious process of global reorganization Dicken (2007) • Japanese producers: the rise to the top of the table for Japanese producers without any actual overseas production • European producers: strongly Eurocentric in their production geographies
• Korean producers: the emergence of South
Korea as a force with a strong support of state Dicken 2007: Conclusion • The strategies more diverse and related to state origins • The strategy of leading Japanese companies is to establish a major integrated system in each of the three global regions: Asia, North America and Western Europe; GM and Ford have the advantage of a sophisticated integrated network within Europe; • European manufacturers remain far more limited geographically (only VW= internationally integrated systems) Dicken 2007: Conclusion • Whilst intense competition continues in both Europe and North America the competitive focus is shifting to Asia; Japanese producers’s dominance is threatened by the Koreans and by other low-cost regional producers, as well as by intensified efforts being made by GM and Ford to increase their market penetration; • The growth of China • The industry remains one of the most politicised of industries Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • 1. Eurozone crisis is part of the global turmoil started in 2007 that became a banking crisis, turned into a global recession; at the heart of bank weakness lies private and public debt accumulated during the 2000s era of financialisation; • 2. the euro has attempted to compete against the $ but without a corresponding powerful state to back it up; its fundamental weakness is that it relies on an alliance of disparate states with diverging competitiveness Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • 3. The European and Monetary Union (EMU) has created a split between core and periphery and relations between the two are hierarchical and discriminatory; the periphery has lost competitiveness in 2000s, therefore developing current account deficits with the core and accumulating large debts to the financial institutions of the core; Germany has emerged as the economic master of the Eurozone Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • 4.Eurozone policy to confront the crisis has been profoundly neoliberal: cutting public expenditure, raising indirect taxes, reducing wages, further liberalising markets and privatising public property; more broadly, policies are threatening to shift the balance of economic, social and political power in favour of capital and against labour across Europe • 5. Austerity is contradictory because it leads to recession thus worsening the burden of debt Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • This contradiction is compounded by the nature of the EMU as an alliance of disparate states with diverging competitiveness; as a result EMU faces a sharp dilemma: either to create state mechanisms that could enforce policies raising the competitiveness of the periphery, or to undergo a rupture; • 6. the credit of the ECB has been deployed to protect the interests of large banks, bondholders and enterprises; the capacity of ECB to relieve of crisis is limited because of no fiscal role and the absence of a state to back up its liabilities and solvency Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • 7. The persistence of the split between core and periphery, the absence of effective institutional change for EMU, the pressures of austerity and the threat to banks are creating harsh conditions for peripheral countries; future prospects are bleak, including low growth, high unemployment and worsening of burden of debt. The ability of the peripheral countries to remain within the EMU is in doubt, and the most likely candidate for exit is Greece Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • Core-periphery: the “race to the bottom” was won by Germany in the 2000s by keeping wages down since the early 1990s while weakening trade organization; its unit labor costs to reflect lower inflation rates from applying wage restraint on German workers; the structures of the EMU might have been beneficial for German capital, but they were not so for German workers; • The tendency has been to reduce labour costs in the periphery through austerity Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • The gains in German competitiveness have nothing to do with advances in productivity which has been worse in Germany than Greece and Ireland; • Loss of competitiveness led to persistent current account deficits for the periphery mirrored by surpluses for the core; rising current account deficits in the periphery were financed by foreign lending both private and public, which in 2000s was easy because of low interest rates Breaking up? A route out of the Eurozone crisis (2011) • For a brief period cheap credit made peripheral membership seem successful as rates of GDP growth much higher than the core; when the crisis broke out the lack of foundations and the divergence in competitiveness; periphery found indebted privately and publicly; • Escalating budget deficits and unfolding recession led to rapid growth of sovereign debt in the periphery; no responsibility of the core for the public debt of the periphery