Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
What is it?
• Bayesian decision theories are formal models of
rational agency, typically comprising a theory of:
– Consistency of belief, desire and preference
– Optimal choice
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It seems natural therefore to speak of plain Decision
Theory. But there are differences too ...
3
Plan
• Introductory remarks
– Prospects
– Basic Bayesian hypotheses
– Representation theorems
• A short history
– Ramsey’s solution to the measurement problem
– Ramsey versus Savage
– Jeffrey
• Conditionals
– Lewis-Stalnaker semantics
– The Ramsey-Adams Hypothesis
– A common logic
• Conditional algebras
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Ramsey-Savage Framework
1. Worlds / consequences: ω1, ω2, ω3, …
2. Propositions / events: P, Q, R, …
3. Conditional Prospects / Actions: (P→ω1)(Q→ω2), …
Good egg Rotten egg
2. Differences in value
• Values are sets of equi-preferred prospects
- β γ – δ iff (P→)(¬P→δ) (P→ β )(¬P→γ)
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3. Existence of utility
4. Derivation of probability
Suppose δ ( if P)(β if ¬P). Then:
U ( ) U ( )
Pr( P )
U ( ) U ( )
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Evaluation
• The Justification problem
– Why should measurement axioms hold?
– Sure-Thing Principle versus P4 and Impartiality
• Jeffrey’s objection
– Fanciful causal hypotheses and artifacts of attribution.
– Behaviourism in decision theory
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Utility Dependence
Good egg Rotten egg
Break egg 6-egg omelette Nothing to eat
None wasted 5 eggs wasted
Throw egg away 5-egg omelette 5-egg omelette
1 egg wasted None wasted
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Probability Dependence
Republican Democrat
Dodgy land deal Low taxes High taxes
Unrestricted development Restricted development
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Jeffrey
• Advantages
– A simple ontology of propositions
– State dependent utility
– Partition independence (CEU)
• Measurement
– Under-determination of quantitative representations
– The inseparability of belief and desire?
– Solutions: More axioms, more relations or more
prospects?
16
The Ramsey-Adams Hypothesis
• General Idea: Rational belief in conditionals goes by
conditional belief for their consequents on the
assumption that their antecedent is true.
1. AB AB AB
2. A A
3. AA
4. A¬A
5. AB AAB
6. (AB)(AC) ABC
7. (AB) v (AC) A(B v C)
8. ¬(AB) A¬B
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The Bombshell
• Question: What must the truth-conditions of AB be, in
order that Ramsey-Adams hypothesis be satisfied?
• Conclusion:
1. “few philosophical theses that have been more decisively
refuted” – Joyce (1999, p.191)
2. Ditch bivalence!
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Boolean algebra
A B C
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Conditional Algebras (1)
ACAC
ACA ACC
A B C
ACAC
(XY)(XZ) XYZ
(XY) v (XZ) X(Y v Z)
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Conditional algebras (2)
ACAC
ACA ACC
A B C
ACAC
XY XY
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Conditional algebras (3)
ACAC
ACA ACC
A B C
ACAC
XY XY
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Normally bounded algebras (1)
ACAC
ACA ACC
A B C
ACAC
X X
XY XXY
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Material Conditional
ACAC
ACA ACC
A B C
ACAC
X ¬X
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Normally bounded algebras (2)
ACAC
ACA ACC
A B C
ACAC
X¬X
¬(XY) X¬Y
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Conditional
algebras (3)
ACA ACC
A B C
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