What awaits crude oil in

Q4 of 2021
Is $100 a barrel possible?
• Higher increases in oil prices are expected during this winter, while
the rest of the commodities, such as coffee, corn, wheat, copper and
the others, are experiencing their highest levels in several year. US
crude also reached the highest level since 2014, raising fear of
inflation getting out of control due to the rise in the energy prices
(natural gas gasoline and coal) in Europe, Asia and America, which
threatens the global economic recovery from the covid-19 pandemic.
Why are oil prices rising
now ? The rise in the oil prices is supported by supply
chain disruptions, rising demand, and tight supply.
These higher prices send a strong signal about the
need to increase production and reduce
consumption, as the recovery in demand exceeds
supply after the recession caused by COVID-19
last year.

The rapid escalation of prices is a feature of the

first year of a cyclical upswing when consumption
bounces back and grows above-trend, while
producers continue to withhold production,
affected by the events of recent recession.
 How high will oil rise ?
Brent crude futures traded above $83 a barrel, up
from $38 at the end of the same month LAST
year. It’s one of the fastest increases in oil prices
we’ve seen in three decades. Even US WTI crude
reached its highest level in 7 years.
Energy prices rose strongly during 2021, as crude
oil has jumped more than 50% since the beginning Oil prices may jump to $100 a barrel
of the year, adding to inflation pressure . before the end of the year. Bank of
America expects the global energy crisis
to push oil prices above $100 a barrel for
the first time since 2014 and may even
trigger a global economic crisis.
What did OPEC + do in its last
meeting ?
OPEC+ and its allies, including Russia are under pressure from
major consumers, such as United States and India, to increase the
production and oil supplies after the prices rose 50% this year. OPEC policy will be the main
However, the Organization ignored these calls and chose to commit driver of oil prices in the coming
to increasing production by only 400,000 barrels per day in period according to Vitol.
November and not by 800,000 barrels as expected. OPEC+ members want to collect
the maximum number of profits
The sharp rise in the oil prices is a source of joy for oil exporters before competition returns to the
globally because it will boost government revenues and revive markets, whether from Iranian oil
economies that depend on oil exports. or the recovery of US shale oil.
What is the US reaction to
higher oil prices and
OPEC+ decision?

The United States is considering releasing

part of its emergency oil reserves and
pumping them into the market to tame the
high fuel prices.
If the supply increases, prices will decrease
slightly with the return of some equilibrium.
 Calculations and potential gains!
Current price is $83 per barrel
Potential rise is towards $100 per barrel
Difference between current and expected price is $17

Potential Gains:
1 lot = $17 000 potential profit
10 lots =$ 170 000 potential profit
100 lots = $1 700 000 potential profit

Required Margin to open trade:

1 lot = $830
10 lots = $8 300
100 lots = $83 000

USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT !

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