The Relevance of (TEACHING)

Math Modelling (During

Pandemic)
JOSEPH S. TABADERO, JR.
SST IV (Mathematics)
MIS Team Lead, Philippine Science High School – CAR Campus
This is a math model
These are math
models
What is a model?

 A model is a simplified mathematical or statistical representation or description of a (complex) natural (or

natural) phenomenon that can be used to make sense out of a real-world problem and related data.
The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on
(college) entrance tests
Why do we need to teach math modeling?
What does the
Curriculum
Framework Say
about Teaching
Mathematical
Modelling?

http://depedbohol.org/v2/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Math-CG_with-tagged-math-
equipment.pdf
 Focus on Critical Thinking and Problem
Solving

Critical thinking, according to Scriven and Paul (1987) is the intellectually disciplined process of actively and
skillfully conceptualizing, applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or evaluating information gathered from, or
generated by, observation, experience, reflection, reasoning, or communication, as a guide to belief and action.

On the other hand, according to Polya (1945 & 1962),
mathematical problem solving is finding a way around a
difficulty, around an obstacle, and finding a solution to a
problem that is unknown.
Reflective learning is a form of education in which the
student reflects upon their learning experiences. A theory
about reflective learning cites it as an intentional and
complex process that recognize the role of social context and
experience. (Wikipedia)
Inquiry-based learning... is a form of active learning that starts
by posing questions, problems or scenarios.... Inquiry-based
learning is often assisted by a facilitator rather than a lecturer.
Inquirers will identify and research issues and questions to
develop knowledge or solutions. Inquiry-based learning
includes problem-based learning, and is generally used in small
scale investigations and projects, as well as research. The
inquiry-based instruction is principally very closely related to
the development and practice of thinking and problem solving
skills. (Wikipedia)

Experiential learning is “learning by doing”.

Modelling the National Competitive Examination

𝒚=𝜷 𝑿+𝜺
𝒚=𝜷𝟎 +𝜷𝟏 𝒇 𝒈𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒉 +𝜷 𝟐 𝒇 𝒈𝒔𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 +𝜺 Multiple regression model

Generalized linear model

Generalized linear mixed model

“All models are wrong but some are useful.” - George Box
All models are
wrong but some
are useful

Wear mask
Keep distance

Image: https://www.yankodesign.com/2020/05/30/for-every-premium-cloth-mask-you-buy-this-company-donates-a-mask-to-medical-professionals/

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/
covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-
is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71
All models are wrong but some are useful:
Modelling the Confirmed COVID-19 cases

423022.24 0.0266
𝑦= 𝑦=1004
=1467𝑒 𝑒0.1843
0.0322
423022.24𝑦𝑦− 𝑒
( )
=5.26
502.537 −0.036 𝑡
1+ 𝑒
Doubling502.537
Doubling time == ln
time ln 222/0.1843
log // 0.0322
0.0266 == 21.5
26.06days
3.76 days
Doubling time = log 2/0.036 = 19.04 days
All models are wrong but some are useful:
Beyond the logistic model

Let S(t) = number of susceptible persons at time t

I(t) = number of infected persons at time t
R(t) = number of recovered persons at time t

Susceptible Infected Recovered

Data-based/Evidence-based decision-making

Schools that suspended the entrance tests

Evidence Based Decision-Making is a process for making decisions about a program, practice,

or policy that is grounded in the best available research evidence and informed by
experiential evidence from the field and relevant contextual evidence.
(https://vetoviolence.cdc.gov/apps/evidence/docs/EBDM_82412.pdf)
Data-based/Evidence-based decision-making:
the case of quarantine

https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker
The pandemic is a teaching opportunity

 Modelling projectile motion

 Modelling the number of COVID-19 cases
 Using COVID-19 data for teaching mathematical and statistical concepts
Where can we get the data?

 https://fassster.ehealth.ph/covid19/
 https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker
 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days
 https://www.coronatracker.com/
 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Summary

 Mathematical and statistical modelling is important in order to:

 Develop critical thinking and problem-solving skills.
 Make evidence-based decisions.
 Create teaching opportunities.
Thank you for listening!!!