Module 14: Confidence Intervals

This module explores the development and

interpretation of confidence intervals, with a focus
on confidence intervals for the population mean,
based on the sample mean.

Reviewed 05 May 05 / Module 14

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 Some Questions
The following questions reference a normal distribution
with a mean μ = 150 lbs, a variance σ2 = 100 lbs2, and a
standard deviation σ = 10 lbs or N(150, 10).
1.   When centered about μ = 150 lbs, what proportion of
the total distribution does an interval of length 10
lbs cover?
2. How many standard deviations long must an interval
be in order to cover the middle 95% of the
distribution?
3.   From μ - (??) standard deviations to μ + (??)
standard deviations covers (??)% of the distribution?
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 The Situation
All these situations require that the population mean μ
be known and that it be placed in the center of these
intervals.
In general, we have a sample mean, x , and are using it
as a guess or estimate for the population mean μ.
Hence, it would be useful if we could have an interval
based on x , that is, with x in the middle.
Such an interval would help us to understand better our
point estimate, the sample mean x , which is an estimate
of the population mean μ.

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 Confidence Interval for Population Mean

x  ?? x x  ??
The uncertainty, ??, is based on:

1. The variability of x , that is, the standard error

of the mean,  x   n

2. Probability, e.g., normal distribution

3. Confidence desired, i.e.,  and 1- .

We can write the formal interval

C[ x - ??    x + ??] = 1- .
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 Confidence Interval for Population Mean

C  x  ??    x  ??  1  
In terms of standard errors of the mean,
   
C x  ?    x ?   1
 n n
If  = 0.05, then 1-  = 0.95 so that
   
C  x  1.96    x  1.96   0.95
 n n

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 95% Confidence Interval for Population Mean

For a 95% Confidence Interval, the following

     
C  x  z1 2    x  z1 2   1
 n n

becomes

   
C  x  1.96    x  1.96   0.95
 n n

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Confidence Interval for the Population Mean
using the Normal Distribution

   
C  x  z1 2    x  z1 2   1
 n n

Lower limit Upper limit

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 Example 1
For  = 0.05 for the first of the random samples of size
n = 5 from the population of body weights, we had

n  5, x  153.0,   10
 10 10 
C  x  1.96    x  1.96   0.95
 5 5
becomes
 10 10 
C 153.0  1.96    153.0  1.96   0.95
 5 5
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 Example 1 (contd.)
or
C 153.0-1.96  4.47     153.0  1.96  4.47   0.95
or
C 153.0-8.76    153.0  8.76  0.95
or
C 144.24    161.76  0.95

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95% Confidence Intervals for samples n = 5

 
C[ x - z0.975    x  z 0.975 ] = 95%
n n 14 - 10
 Example 2
For  = 0.05 for the first of the random samples of size
n = 20 from the population of body weights, we had
n  20, x  151.6,   10
 10 10 
C  x  1.96    x  1.96   0.95
 20 20 
becomes
 10 10 
C 151.6  1.96    151.6  1.96   0.95
 20 20 

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 Example 2 (contd.)
or
C 151.6-1.96  2.23    151.6  1.96  2.23   0.95
or
C 151.6-4.37    151.6  4.37   0.95
or
C 147.2    155.9  0.95

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95% Confidence Intervals for samples n = 20

 
C[ x - z0.975    x  z0.975 ] = 95%
n n 14 - 13
95% Confidence Intervals for samples n = 50

 
C[ x - z 0.975    x  z0.975 ] = 95%
n n
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 Example 3
For  = 0.01 for the first of the random samples of size
n = 5 from the population of body weights, we had
n  5, x  153.0,   10
   
C x - z0.995    x +z0.995 ; z0.995 = 2.576
 n

n
 10 10 
C x  2.576    x  2.576  0.99
 5

5
becomes
 10 10 
C 153.0  2.576    153.0  2.576  0.99
 5 5

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 Example 3 (contd.)
or
C 153.0-2.576  4.47     153.0  2.576  4.47   0.99
or
C 153.0-11.51    153.0  11.51  0.99
or
C 141.5    163.1  0.99

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 Example 4
For  = 0.01 for the first of the random samples of size
n = 20 from the population of body weights, we had

n  20, x  151.6,   10 ; z0.995 = 2.576

 10 10 
C  x  2.576    x  2.576   0.99
 20 20 
becomes
 10 10 
C 151.6  2.576    151.6  2.576   0.99
 20 20 

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 Example 4 (contd.)
or
C 151.6-2.576  2.23    151.6  2.576  2.23   0.99
or
C 151.6-5.74    151.6  5.74  0.99
or
C 145.9    157.3  0.99

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 Confidence Intervals
Confidence intervals for the population mean , are an
estimation procedure with reasonable bounds about the
sample mean x ,
In general, the closer the bounds are to the point estimate, x ,
the better the point estimate.
The bounds are constructed in a manner that takes into
account the variability of the point estimate.
The bounds are also based on an appropriate probability
distribution so that some reasonable probability statements
can be made.

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Our confidence is in the process we used to generate a
specific confidence interval and not in the specific
interval itself.

In general, we construct such intervals so that, should

we repeat the process a large number of times, then
95%, for a 95% confidence interval, of such intervals
should contain the population parameter being
estimated by the point estimate and the confidence
interval.

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The specific interval we compute in any given
situation may or may not contain the population
parameter.
The only way for us to be sure that the population
parameter is within the bounds of the confidence
interval is to know the true value for this parameter.
Obviously, if we knew the true value, we would not
bother to go through the process of guessing at the
truth with estimates.

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 AJPH Example--Mean, SD, Variance, CI 

In the following example (Table 1, Elola et al, AJPH,

1995, 85: p1398), the mean and SD for health
expenditures per capita (US$) for the n = 7 countries
with Social Security Systems are given.
Questions:
1. What is your best guess as to the population
mean for the population from which this sample
was selected?

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2. What is the sample variance for the individual measures
of health expenditures in this sample of size n = 7?

3. Construct a 95% confidence interval for this population

mean. For this calculation, assume that the population
variance is $22,500 (dollars2) and that the population
standard deviation is $150.

4. What is the variance and standard deviation for the

population of means of all possible samples of size
n = 7 for this situation?

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Source: AJPH, October 1995, 85:1398

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 Another Example
Suppose we have a random sample of n = 25 measurements
of chest circumference from a population of newborns with
 = 0.7 in. The sample mean is x = 12.6 in.
 A 95% confidence interval for  is:
   
C  x  1.96    x  1.96   0.95
 n n
 0.7 0.7 
C 12.6  1.96    12.6  1.96   0.95
 5 5 
C 12.6  0.27    12.6  0.27   0.95
C 12.33    12.87   0.95
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 Questions

Is it possible that this sample with x  12.6

came from a population with   13.0 ?

Is it likely that this sample with x  12.6

came from a population with   13.0 ?

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