Example: estimate the mean score of acciunting if IBD students, we take a sample of

50 students. From this sample we caculate sample mean, x =72.5

And with probability 95%, we find P(68< µ<76.2¿=95 %

Then 72.5 is the point extimator of population mean, µ

The interval: (68.2, 76.2) is the confidence interval with 95% confidence level

Now, the formula for the confidence interval for the population meanm: Two cases:
Assme data is normal distribution with know variance σ 2
The formular is
σ
x ± Z∝ /2
√n
σ σ
x−Z ∝/2 < µ < x + Z ∝/2
√n √n

Example: Data were collected on the amount spent by 64 customers for lunch at a
major Houston restẩunt. These data are contained in the file named Houston, Based
upon past studies the population standard deviation is known with σ =6 $. Sample
mean = 21.52
a) Estimate the confidence interval for the mean of spending amout of all ppl with
confidence level 1- ∝ = 95%
This is the case of estimate the CI 95% for mean amount with known variance σ =6
The formular for CI is
σ
x ± Z∝ /2
√n
x=21.52
1- ∝=0.95 , Z∝ /2=Z 0.025= 1.96
n= 64, σ =6
6
Lower limit: 21,52 - 1.96 = 20.05
√ 64
6
Upper limit: 21,52 + 1.96 = 22.99
√64
6
CI 95% (20.05 to 22.99), margin of error: ME = 1.96 = 1.47
√64
Interpretation of CI: with 95% confidence level, the true value of mean amount of
spending for lunch of cus is from 20.05 to 22.99$

*Ước lượng khoảng đáng tin cậy hơn ước lượng điểm

b) What is the margin of error? How the CI changes if:

- We increase the confidence level (sample size unchanged)
- We increase the sample size (confidence level unchange)
σ
Z∝ /2 =margin of error
√n
x ± margin of error (ME)
Width = cận trên – cận dưới = ¿ ¿ margin of error ¿ - ¿ ¿ margin of error ¿ = 2ME = 2
σ
Z∝ /2
√n
(người 1 cách điểm A 10m, người 2 cách điểm B 5m -> width = 10-5= 5)

Ví dụ
TH1: (Dự đoán chiều cao 1 người)
(160cm – 170cm) Tăng sample size -> confidence level tăng -> precision giảm
(165cm – 167cm) Giảm sample size -> confidence level giảm -> precision tăng

Sample size determination

What is the sample size required
Such that ME = ME 0 , know σ

σ Z 2∝/ 2−σ 2
ME 0= Z∝ /2 -> n=
√n ME20
Example: How large a sample should be selected to provide a 95% confidence interval
with a margin error of 10? Assume taht the population standard deviation is 40.
Sample size needed is:
n= 1.962 * 40 2/ 102= 61.64 -> 62
We need sample 62 elements to have the CI 95% with margin of error = 10
Comment on the sample required depending on the confidence level and the precision
of estimation
(Precision = độ chính xác – đo bằng margin of error)
Case 2: when we do not know population variance σ 2 (chưa biết phương sai)
We use sample standard deviation, s replacing for σ . Then , thevalue of x will be
replaced by the value of t
t ∝/2 (n −1) (of student distribution). The value of t, can be found from T table
The formula for the CI is
s
x ± t ∝/2 (n −1 )
√n
Example: take a sample of 50 students in the Uni to estimate the mean of height.
Measuarunf the height of 50 students, we got their mean is 170.6 and standard
deviation is 5.2. Estimates the confidence interval 95% for the mean height of all
studnets in the Uni. Assume normal distribution.

Solution: This is the case of estimation of population mean when we do not know
population standard deviation. The formula is
s
x ± t ∝/2 (n −1 )
√n
Sample mean = x=. 70.6 , sample standard devuation s=5.2 , sample ¿¿ 50
Find t n−1= t 0.025 = 2.009 (tra bảng T)
49

5.2
170.6 ± 2.009 -> 170.6 ±1.477
√ 50
In particular:
Lower limit: 166.12
Upper limit: 172.08

The second estimation problem: Estimate the CI ffor the propotion of population, p
When the variable is qualitative, we are estimateing the propotion p
Assume we want to estimate the propotion p of a value A in the population. We take a
random sample of n elements in which there are m elements having value A
m
Then the propotion of A in the sample, p=
n
Then the CI for p is:

p ± z ∝/ 2
√ p (1− p)
n

Example: Find the CI 95% for propotion of students in NEU who have IELTS
certificate given that random smaple of 150 stu taken randomly in which 56 stu
already had the cert

The formula is

1−∝= 95% => z ∝/2 =z 0,025= 1.96

p ± z ∝/ 2
√ p (1− p)
n
 56
p= =0.3 7
150
The CI is 0.37 ± 1.96
 0.37 ± 0.077∨¿
√ 0.37∗0,63
150

Lower limit: 0.293

Upper limit: 0.447

Interpretation: with 95% confidence level, the propotion of students in NEU having
cert is from 29.3% to 44.7%

Nếu hiệu trưởng nói rằng hơn 50% sv có cert, thì chỉ đúng 5%??