Chapter 4

LESSON 3
Computing Interval Estimates of Population Proportions
Getting Ready:
It has become a common practice to obtain data using surveys as basis of decision-
making. Almost daily, we hear news media report results of some poll. How are conclusions made
from count data? There are systematic procedures in Statistics in order to make sense out of
these frequencies. You will learn more about this in this lesson.
As with the estimates of the population mean, we want to ensure that our estimates based
on samples contain the true value of the population proportion. Can you think of a way of doing
this?
Just like the means, we can also form confidence intervals about the population p in a
manner analogous to that used for the estimation of the population parameter μ.
We can also assign a probability that the interval contains the population proportion. The interval
depends on the sampling distribution of ^p . That is, if we were to draw random samples over and
over again, each time calculating a new estimate ^p, then the frequency distribution of all the ^p
values would be p. thus, ^p is an unbiased estimator of p.
Recall that the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of ^p is given by:
pq where q = 1 – p.
𝛔 =
p √ n
,
So, the margin of error E for the confidence interval of a population proportion is.
pq ≈ z pq
E=z
√
/2 n /2 √
n
Thus, the formula for computing a large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion p
is:
pq < p < + z pq
^p = z/2
√ n
Or
^p /2 n √
p^ q^
^p +¿´ ¿ z/2
√ n
The following assumptions are made for finding a confidence interval for a population
proportion.
1. The sample is random sample.
2. The conditions for a binomial experiment are satisfied.
Activity 1:
Computing Interval Estimates of P
1. Recall the Four – Step Method in estimating a population parameter.
2. Study the following examples employing the Four-Step Method.
3. Provide the missing information to complete the solution.

Example 1: Trust the President?

a survey of 1200 citizens showed that 715 trust the president. Compute a 95% confidence
interval for the proportion of all citizens who trust the president.
STEPS SOLUTIONS
1. Describe the population The parameter of interest is the mean proportion p of all citizens
parameter of interest. who trust the president.
2. Specify the confidence interval criteria.
a. Check the assumptions By the CLT, the sample size of 1200 citizens is normally
distributed
b. Determine the test statistic The test statistic is the p.
to be used to calculate the
interval
c. State the level of Confidence level: 95% and  = 0.05
confidence Confidence coefficients:
Solution:
a. Point Estimate

STEPS SOLUTIONS
 3. Collect and present sample evidence
a. Collect the sample X = 715 and n = 1200.
information.
b. Find the point estimate of X 715
p. ^p = = = 0.595 ≈ 0.60
n 1200

b.95% confidence interval

4. Compute the interval estimate
a. Find q^ . q^ = 1 - ^p = 1 – 0.60 = ______
b. Substitute the value of n, q^ p^ q^
in the formula to find the
maximum error of estimate.
√ n
= _______________

c. Find the limits. For the lower limit:

p^ q^ = ________ - 1.96 x _______
^p=z/2
√ n
= ________ - 1.96 √ 0.0002
= ________ - 1.96 (0.014)
= ________ - 0.027
= 0.573 or 57.3%
For the upper limit
p^ q^ = ________ - 1.96 x ________
^p +¿z/2
√ n
= ________ + 0.027
= ________ 62.7%

d. Describe the results. Thus, with 95% confidence, we can state that the interval from
57.3% to 62.7% contains the true percentage of all citizens who
trust the president.
Example 2: Environmental Concern

In a survey of 458 random households, people take pride in discussing their methods of
environmental protection. 236 manage their trash by separating biodegradables from non-
biodegradables. Biodegradables are converted into fertilizers while non-biodegradables are
disposed of properly. Use a 95% confidence to estimate the proportion of all households who
have good practices of trash management.

STEPS SOLUTIONS
1. Describe the population The parameter of interest is the mean proportion p of all
parameter of interest. households who have good practices of trash management.
2. Specify the confidence interval criteria.

a. Check the assumptions By the CLT, the sample size of 236 is normally distributed.

b. Determine the test statistic to The test statistic is the p.

be used to calculate the interval
c. State the level of confidence Confidence level: 95% and  = 0.05
Confidence coefficients: ______________
a. Point Estimate

STEPS SOLUTIONS
3. Collect and present sample evidence
a. Collect the sample X = 236 and n = 458.
information.
 b. Find the point estimate of X 236
p. ^p = = = 0.515 ≈ 0.52
n 450
The point estimate of the population proportion p is _________.

b.95% confidence interval

4. Compute the interval estimate
a. Find q^ . q^ = 1 - ^p = 1 – 0.52 = ______
b. Substitute the value of n, q^ p^ q^
in the formula to find the
maximum error of estimate.
√ n
= 1.96 x _____________

c. Find the limits. For the lower limit:

p^ q^ = 0.52 - _______
^p=z/2
√ n
= ________ - 1.96 √ 0.0005
= ________ - 1.96 (0.023)
= 0.52 - 0.046
= 0.474 or 47.4%
For the upper limit
p^ q^ = 0.52 - ________
^p +¿z/2
√ n
= 0.52 + 0.046
= 0.566 OR 56.6%

d. Describe the results. Thus, with 95% confidence, we can state that the interval from
47.4% to 56.6% contains the true percentage of all citizens who
trust the president.

Chapter 4
LESSON 4
Interpreting Interval Estimate of a Population
Getting Ready:
There are certain issues in society that require sufficient evidence for decision
making. For example, should the use of marijuana be legalized? To find an answer to this
question, you will have to conduct a survey to a sufficient sample of the public, then
calculate and interpret the population proportion, and present the results to lawmakers as
possible reference for policy formulation.

In this lesson, we shall look at the interpretation of the results of interval estimation
of population parameters.

Making Use of Numerical Information

1. Look at the table of information on enrolment in a college.

2. Answer the questions that follow.
Course Number of
enrollees
Engineering 1 080
Hotel and 948
Restaurant
Teacher 1 143
Education
Total 3 171
1080
3. The proportion of engineering students is = 0.34. What is the proportion of Hotel and
3171
Restaurant students?
4. What is the proportion of Teacher education Students?
5. Based on the numbers, what can you infer about choice of courses?
6. Can data provide information to school management to embark on school improvement
practices?
7. In what course may the school exert effort to improve if the course has to be offered?

More on Estimating Parameters

1. Recall the four-step process of estimating population parameters.

2. Focus on the last part: Interpretation
3. Study the examples carefully and complete the solutions as needed.

Example 1: Science Majors

In a graduate teacher college, a survey was conducted to determine the proportion

of students who want to major in Science. If 368 out of 850 students said Yes, with 95%
confidence, what interpretation can we make regarding the probability that all students in
the teacher graduate college want to major in Science?

Solutions:
a. Point Estimate
3. Collect and present sample evidence

a. Collect the sample X = 368 and n = 850.

information.
b. Find the point X 36 8
estimate of p. ^p = = = 0.432 ≈ 0.43
n 8 50
The point estimate of the population proportion p is
_________.
STEPS SOLUTIONS

b. 95% confidence
1. Describe theinterval The parameter of interest is the mean proportion p of all
4. Compute
populationthe interval estimate students in the teacher graduate college who want to
parameter of major in Science.
a. Findinterest.
q^ . q^ = 1 - ^p = 1 – 0.43 = ______
2. Specify the confidence interval criteria.
b. Substitute ^p q^
the value of n, q^
a. Check the
in the formula
assumptions
√ n
= 1.96 x _____________
By the CLT, the sample size of 850 is normally
distributed.
to find the
maximum error
b. Determine the The test statistic is the p.
of estimate.
test statistic to be
used to calculate the
c. Find the For the lower limit:
interval
limits. ^p q^
c. State the level of
confidence
^p=z/2
√ = 0.43 – 1.96 x_______
n Confidence level: 95% and  = 0.05
Confidence coefficients:
= 0.43 – 1.96 ________ ______________
= 0.43 – 1.96(0.017)
= 0.43 - 0.034
= 0.396 or 39.6%
For the upper limit
^ q^
p
√
^p +¿z/2
n
= 0.43 + 1.96 x _________
= 0.43 + 0.034
= 0.464 or 46.4%
d. Describe the Thus, with 95% confidence, we can assert that the interval from
results. 39.6% to 46.4% contains the true percentage of all graduate
students who want to major in Science.

Example 2: Food Combo

In a certain food stall, 278 out of 500 randomly selected consumers indicate their
preference for a new kind of food combination. Use a 99% confidence interval to estimate
the true proportion p who like the new food combination.
 a. Point Estimate
STEPS SOLUTIONS

1. Describe the The parameter of interest is the mean proportion p of all

population consumers who like the new food combination.
parameter of
interest.
2. Specify the confidence interval criteria.

a. Check the By the CLT, the sample size of 500 is normally distributed.
assumptions
b. Determine The test statistic is the p.
the test statistic
to be used to
calculate the
interval
c. State the Confidence level: 99% and  = 0.01
level of Confidence coefficients:
confidence
3. Collect and present sample evidence
a. Collect the X = 278 and n = 500.
sample
information.
b. Find the X 278
point estimate ^p = = = 0.556
n 500
of p. The point estimate of the population proportion p is _________.

b. 99% confidence interval

4. Compute the interval estimate
a. Find q^ . q^ = 1 - ^p = 1 – 0.556 = 0.444
b. Substitute p^ q^
the value of n,
q^ in the
√ n
= _____________

formula to find
the maximum
error of
estimate.
c. Find the For the lower limit:
limits. p^ q^
^p=z/2
√ n
= 0.556 – 2.58
√
(0.556)(0.444)
500
= 0.556 – 2.58 √ 0.00049
= 0.556 – 2.58(0.0222)
= 0.556 - 0.057
= 0.499 or 44.9%
For the upper limit
p^ q^
^p +¿z/2
√ n
= ___________
= ___________
= _______ or 61.3%
d. Describe the Thus, with 99% confidence, that the interval between 49.9 and
results. 61.3% contains the true proportion of all consumers who like the
new food combination.

Chapter 4
Lesson 5
CONFIDENCE LEVEL AND SAMPLE SIZE
 Lesson Objectives:
At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:
 Understand the relation of confidence interval to sample size; and
 Determine sample size based on selected confidence level.

Getting ready
How large should a sample be? Many researchers find this a problem. In fact, many rely on
old methods to determine the sample size they need in their investigations. This problem should
be addressed carefully because needlessly large samples are a waste of important resources. On
the other hand, insufficient sample size may lead to poor results.

Task: Derive the formula in determining the sample size.

In-class Activity 1

Deriving Formula 1
There are two things to remember when we decide on the quality of the sample size we
need: confidence and the narrowness of the interval. The computing formula in determining
sample size is derived from the formula of the margin of error E where:

σ
E = zα/2( ¿.
√n
 Study the derivation of the computing formula for determining minimum sample size
when estimating a population mean.
 Discuss the elements of the formula.

Let us solve for n, the sample size needed in estimating a population mean. To do this, we
modify the equation by
applying the properties of equality.

zα/2 . σ
So, E =
√n
E√ n = zα /2. σ
zα /2. σ
√ n=
E
¿
za/ 2. σ 2
n= ( )
E

Formula in determining the minimum sample size needed when estimating the population mean.
za/ 2. σ 2
n= ( )
E
Since the value of σ is usually unknown, it can be estimated by the standard deviation s
from a prior sample. Alternatively, we may approximate the range R of observations in the
R
population and make a conservative estimate of ≈ . In any case, round up the value of obtained
4
to ensure that the sample size will be sufficient to achieve the specified reliability.

Example 1: Feeding Program

In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the mean weight µ, in kilograms, of all six-
year old children to be included in a feeding program. She wants to be 99% confident that the
estimate of µ is accurate to within 0.06 kg. Suppose from a previous study, the standard
deviation of the weights of the target population was 0.5 kg, what should the sample size be?

Solution:
Given the confidence 99%. Then α = 1 – 0.99 = 0.01. thus, z α/2 = 2.58. The phrase
“accurate to within 0.06 kg” indicates a narrowed width of the confidence interval. Thus, the
desired error E = 0.06 kg.
Population standard deviation σ = 0.5 kg
Substituting the values in the equation for getting sample size, we have:
n=¿)2
(2.58)(0.5) 2
n=( ¿
0.06
 1.29 2
n=( ¿
0.06
n = (215¿2
n = 462.25

Round up the value to 463. So, the required sample size is 463 six-year old children.

Example 2: Replicating a Study

Joshua wants to replicate a study where the lowest observed value is 12.4 while the
highest is 12.8. he wants to estimate the population mean µ to within an error f 0.025 of its true
value. Using the 99% confidence level, find the sample size n that he needs.

Solution:
The confidence level is 99%, so = 0.01. therefore z α/2 = 2.58
R
The desired error is o.025. since the range R = 12.8 – 12.4 = 0.4, then σ = =0.1
4
Substituting the values in the equation for getting sample size, we have:
n=¿)2
(2.58)(0.1) 2
n=( ¿
0.025
.258 2
n=( ¿
0.025
n = (10.32¿2
n = 106.5

Round up 106.5 to 107. So the required sample size is 107.