Probability and

Statistics
Third Quarter
Module 16:
Sample Size and
Confidence Interval

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 11

Probability and
Statistics
Third Quarter
Module 16:
Sample Size and
Confidence Interval

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 INTRODUCTION

This module is written in support of the K to 12 Basic Education Program to

ensure attainment of the standards expected of you as learner.

This learning material aims to equip you with essential knowledge on the
different Types of Conic Sections: parabola, ellipse, circle, hyperbola, and degenerate
cases.

This includes the following activities/tasks:

▪ Expected Learning Outcome – This lays out the learning outcome that
you are expected to have accomplished at the end of the module.
▪ Pre-test – This determines your prior learning on the particular lesson
you are about to take.
▪ Discussion of the lesson – This provides you with the important
knowledge, principles and attitude that will help you meet the expected
learning outcome.
▪ Learning Activities – These provide you with the application of the
knowledge and principles you have gained from the lesson and enable
you to further enhance your skills as you carry out prescribed tasks.
▪ Post-test – This evaluates your overall understanding about the module.

With the different activities provided in this module, may you find this material
engaging and challenging as it develops you critical thinking skills.

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 What I Need to Know

After going through this module, you will be able to:

➢ identify the length of a confidence interval
➢ compute for the length of the confidence interval
➢ compute for an appropriate sample size using the length of interval
➢ solve problems involving sample size determination

What I Know

Pre-Test
Multiple Choice. Write the letter of the correct answer on your notebook.
1. Which of the following random variable would require that the confidence
interval for the proportion, rather than the mean, be used?
a. The number of sales per employee in 2008
b. The volume in ounces of bottle fill-weight
c. The number of employees who vote “in favor”, rather than “against” a
new over-time policy
d. The weight in pounds of bag of fertilizer

2. Each of the following factors must be known in order to determine the sample
size for quantitative data except for,
a. The desired confidence level
b. The sample standard deviation
c. The acceptance sampling error
d. The population standard deviation

3. Which of the following is an example of a point estimate?

a. The sample mean
b. The population mean
c. The population standard deviation
d. The population variance

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4. A confidence interval estimate is constructed around
a. The population parameter
b. The degree of confidence
c. The population mean
d. The point estimate

5. In a sample size 25, in order to compute statistic, how many sample values are
free to vary?
a. 1
b. 24
c. 25
d. 50

6. The z-value that is used to construct a 95% interval is

a. 1.28
b. 1.65
c. 1.96
d. 2.58

7. The z-value which is used to construct a 99% confidence interval is

a. 1.28
b. 1.65
c. 1.96
d. 2.58

8. Which of the following is NOT a property of the student’s t distribution?

a. Its exact shape is characterized by the degrees of freedom
b. As the sample size grows, it gradually approaches the normal
distribution.
c. All of the above are properties of the t distribution
d. It is symmetric

9. Which of the following is false?

a. There is a different z-value used for each level of alpha
b. In practice, the population mean is an unknown quantity that is to be
estimated.
c. It is possible to construct a 100% confidence interval estimate for the
population mean.
d. Alpha is the proportion in the tails of the distribution which are outside of
the confidence interval.

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10. The type of reasoning involved in obtaining confidence interval estimates is
called
a. A priori
b. A posteriori
c. Inductive
d. Deductive

11. You and your friend decide to construct 95% confidence intervals for a given
population mean. You wind up taking a sample of 49 random observations while
your friend’s sample is made up of 36 random observations. Which of the
following is true?
a. The total width of your confidence interval estimate is wider
b. Your interval has a greater degree of confidence
c. The total width of your confidence interval estimate is narrower
d. Your frien’d interval has a greater degree confidence.

12. The value of alpha for 98% confidence interval would be

a. 0.02
b. 0.05
c. 0.10
d. 0.20

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 What’s In

Getting the right sample size is a problem among researchers. This problem
should be addressed properly so that waste of resources is prevented. However, just
how large a sample size should be? To prepare you for this lesson, see if you can
answer the following. Evaluate each expression below.

1. 1 − 0.72
2. (0.15)(0.65)
2
 (1.96)(3) 
3.  
 0.2 
2
 (2.58)(1.2) 
4.  
 0.10 

What’s New

Fill in the blanks with the correct word or group of words to make meaningful
statements.

✓ The roundup of 110.12 is ___________.

✓ A confidence level is the confidence coefficient expressed as ___________.
✓ For 95% confidence level, the confidence coefficient is _____________.
✓ When 99% confidence is selected, α = ____________.

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 What Is It?

Confidence Interval and Sample Size

A. Determining the Minimum Sample Needed when Estimating the

Population Mean
There are two things to remember when we decide on the quality of the sample
size we need: confidence and narrowness of the interval. Recall that the computing
formula in determining sample size is derived from the formula of the margin of error
E.

  
Where E = z / 2  
 n

We can perform algebraic operations on the formula to derive the value of n,

our notation for sample size.

  
E = z / 2  
 n
z 
E =  /2 multiply
n

( n )(E ) =  z  /2 
 ( n ) apply multiplication property of equality
 n 

E  n = z / 2   simplify

1
( ) 1
  E  n = ( z / 2   )  apply multiplication property of equality
E E

z / 2  
n= simplify
E

( n)  z  
2
2
=   /2  square both sides of the equation
 E 

 z  
2

n =   /2  simplify
 E 

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 Thus, the formula in determining the minimum sample needed when estimating
 z  
2

the population mean is n =   / 2 

 E 
Illustrative Examples:

1. Anthony wants to estimate the mean weight μ, in kilograms, of all Grade1 pupils
in an elementary school. He wants to be 99% confident that the estimate of μ
is accurate to within 0.05 kg. From a previous study, the standard deviation of
the weights of the target population was 0.5 kg. What sample size does he
need?

Solution:

❖ Given the confidence 99%,

then  = 1 − 0.99 = 0.01 .
Thus, z / 2 = 2.58.
❖ The phrase “accurate to within 0.05 kg” indicates the narrowed
width of the confidence interval, from 0.5 kg to 0.05kg.
So, the error E = 0.05

❖ Population standard deviation σ = 0.5 kg.

❖ Substitute the values in the equation for getting the sample size, we
have,

 
2
z
n =   /2 
 E 
2
 ( 2.58)(0.5) 
n= 
 0.05 
2
 1.29 
n= 
 0.05 
n = (25.8)
2

n = 665.64
n = 665.64  666

Thus, Anthony needs a sample size of 666 children.

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 2. Maria wants to study the eating habits of an indigenous tribe. She wants to
estimate the population mean μ to within an error of 0.02 of its true value.
Previous studies have revealed a standard deviation of 0.3. using 95%
confidence level, fin the sample size n that she needs.

Solution:

❖ Given the confidence 95%,

then  = 1 − 0.95 = 0.05 .
Thus, z / 2 = 1.96.

❖ The desired error is error E = 0.02

❖ Population standard deviation σ = 0.3

❖ Substitute the values in the equation for getting the sample size, we
have,

 z  
2

n =   /2 
 E 
2
 (1.96)(0.3) 
n= 
 0.02 
2
 0.558 
n= 
 0.02 
n = (27.9)
2

n = 778.91
n = 778.91  779

Thus, the required sample size of 779.

B. Determining the Minimum Sample Needed when Estimating the

Population Proportion

To determine the sample size for finding the confidence interval for a
proportion, we derive the computing formula also from the margin of error.

pˆ qˆ
E = z 2
n
 1  pˆ qˆ  1 
   E = z  
z  2
n z  apply multiplication property of equality
 2   2 

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  1   
   E = z 2 pˆ qˆ   1 
z  n  z 2  simplify
 2  
E pˆ qˆ
= simplify
z 2 n
2 2
 E   
  =  pˆ qˆ 
z   n  square both sides of the equation
 2  
E 2
pˆ qˆ
=
(
z 2
2
) n
simplify

E2 pˆ qˆ
(n )  =  (n )
(z 2 )2 n apply multiplication property of equality

E2 pˆ qˆ
(n )  =  (n )
(z 2 ) n
2 simplify/cancel out common factor

n E2
= pˆ qˆ
(z 2 )2 simplify

n E2
(z ) 2
 = pˆ qˆ  (z )2
 2
(z 2 )2 2 apply multiplication property of equality

n E2
(z ) 2
 = pˆ qˆ  (z ) 2
 2
(z 2 )2 2 simplify/cancel out common factor

n  E 2 = pˆ qˆ  (z )2
2

 2   nE = pˆ qˆ  (z 2 )   2  apply multiplication property of equality

 1  2 2  1 

E  E 

 2   nE = pˆ qˆ  (z 2 )   2  simplify/cancel out common factor

 1  2 2  1 

E  E 
pˆ qˆ  (z )2

n=
2
simplify
E2
2
 z 2 
n = pˆ qˆ   apply associative property of equality
 E 

Thus, the formula in determining the minimum sample size when estimating a
2
 z 2 
population proportion is n = pˆ qˆ  
 E 

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 Steps in Solving for Sample Size involving Proportions

1. Determine the confidence level.

2. Determine the confidence coefficient.
3. Determine the error E.
4. Determine p̂ and q̂ .
2
 z 2 
5. Substitute the values in the formula n = pˆ qˆ  
 E 
5. Round up the resulting value to the nearest whole number.

Illustrative Examples:

1. A company has tasked Mary, a researcher, to find out the proportion of

housewives who use a particular brand of cooking oil. The company wants to
know, with 95% confidence, the proportion of households who like to use that
cooking. A previous srvey has shown 42% like to use cooking oil X. the study
must be accurate to within 2% of the true proportion. What sample size does
Mary need?

Solution:

Step 1 . The confidence level is 95%

Step 2. With a 95% confidence level, α = 0.05
So, z / 2 = 1.96.
Step 3. The error E is 2% or 0.02

Step 4. The given proportion is 42%

So, p̂ = 0.42
and q̂ = 1 - p̂
q̂ = 1 – 0.42
q̂ = 0.58

Step 5. Substitute the values in the formula and compute

2
 z 2 
n = pˆ qˆ  
 E 
2
 1.96 
n = (0.42)(0.58) 
 0.02 
n = (0.42)(0.58)(9604)
n = 2339.53

Step 6. Round up the resulting value to the nearest whole number.

n = 2339.53 or 2340

Thus, Mary needs a sample of 2340 respondents.

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2. The mayor of a town wants to use the proportion of a population to determine
the sample size he needed to interview regarding plans about a new market
building. He wants to be able to assert with a probability 0.95 that his error will
be at most 0.05. A survey in the past has shown 65% approval. How large a
sample does the mayor need?

Solution:

Step 1 . The confidence level is 95%

Step 2. With a 95% confidence level, α = 0.05

So, z / 2 = 1.96.

Step 3. The error E is 5% or 0.05

Step 4. The given proportion is 65%

So, p̂ = 0.65
and q̂ = 1 - p̂
q̂ = 1 – 0.65
q̂ = 0.35

Step 5. Substitute the values in the formula and compute

2
 z 2 
n = pˆ qˆ  
 E 
2
 1.96 
n = (0.65)(0.35) 
 0.05 
n = (0.65)(0.35)(1536.64)
n = 349.58

Step 6. Round up the resulting value to the nearest whole number.

n = 349.58 or 350

Thus, the mayor needs a sample size of 350 respondent constituents.

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 What’s More

DIRECTIONS: Solve the following problems. Write your answers and complete
solutions on your notebook.

 z  
2

I. Find the   / 2  given each of the following:

 E 
1. 90% confidence, E = 0.01
2. 90% confidence, E = 0.02
3. 95% confidence, E = 0.15
4. 95% confidence, E = 0.08
5. 99% confidence, E = 0.05

II. Find the sample size for each of the following:

1. 90% confidence, E = 0.08, p̂ = 0.38
2. 95% confidence, E = 0.05, p̂ = 0.38
3. 95% confidence, E = 0.12, p̂ = 0.38

What I Can Do

DIRECTIONS: Solve the following problems. Write your answers and complete
solutions on your notebook.

1. In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the mean weight μ, in

kilograms, of all six-year old children to be included in a feeding program.
She wants to be 99% confident that the estimate of μ is accurate to within
0.06 kg. Suppose from a previous study, the standard deviation of the
weights of the target population was 0.5 kg, what should the sample size
be?

2. The Dean of a college wants to use the proportion of a population to

determine the sample size needed to interview regarding their thoughts
about the new school structure. She wants to be able to assert with a
probability 0.95 that her error will be at most 0.05. Similar polls in the past
showed that 65% approved the new approved the new structure. How large
a sample does the Dean need?
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SCORING RUBRIC:
SCORE
CRITERIA
12 10 8 6
All of the Most of the Some of the Little to none of
ACCURACY answers are answers are answers are the answers are
correct correct correct correct
All of the Most of the Some of the Few to none of
COMPLETION assigned task is assigned task is assigned task is the assigned
complete complete complete task is complete
Output is in an Output is in an Output is in a Output is
orderly packet orderly packet packet with disorderly with
NEATNESS and is incredibly and is neat, several flaws. many flaws.
neat, with no with few flaws.
flaws.
Output was Output was Output was Output was
TIMELINESS received on received 1 day received 2 days received 3 days
time late late or more late

What’s I Have Learned

I learned that:
✓ the formula in determining the minimum sample needed when estimating
 z  
2

the population mean is n =   / 2  .

 E 
✓ the formula in determining the minimum sample size when estimating a
2
 z 2 
population proportion is n = pˆ qˆ   .
 E 
✓ the steps in Solving for Sample Size involving Proportions are:

1. Determine the confidence level.

2. Determine the confidence coefficient.
3. Determine the error E.
4. Determine p̂ and q̂ .
5. Substitute the values in the formula
2
 z 2 
n = pˆ qˆ  
 E 
6. Round up the resulting value to the nearest whole number.

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 Assessment

POST TEST
Multiple Choice. Write the letter of the correct answer on your notebook.
1. Which of the following is a range of values that contains the parameter value?
e. Confidence limit c. confidence coefficient
f. Confidence interval d. confidence level

2. What do we call the probability that a parameter is contained in a range of

values?
a. Confidence limit c. confidence coefficient
b. Confidence interval d. confidence level

3. What is the α value if the confidence is 95%?

a. 0.1 c. 0.5
b. 0.01 d. 0.05

4. Which of the following are the 95% confidence coefficients?

a. ±1.645 c. ±2.33
b. ±1.96 d. ±2.58

5. What are the critical values when α = 0.01?

a. ±1.645 c. ±2.33
b. ±1.96 d. ±2.58
For Items 6 – 8
A bottle of fruit juice drink is claimed to be 500 ml with a standard deviation of
20 ml. Joshua wants to investigate the same fruit juice drink to estimate the true
population mean content correct to within 5 ml, adopting 95% confidence.
6. What is the confidence coefficient in the given problem?
a. ±1.645 c. ±2.33
b. ±1.96 d. ±2.58

7. What is the desired error in the given problem?

a. 4 c. 6
b. 5 d. 7

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 8. How many bottles of the fruit juice drink of the same brand does he need for a
sample?
a. 31 c. 62
b. 50 d. 80
For numbers 9 – 12.
A politician wants to know his chances of winning in the next election. He has
tasked a researcher to interview a random sample of his constituents about
their perceptions of his leadership. Previous polls have revealed that
approximately 62.5% are in favor of his leadership. The politician has adopted
the 0.95 level of confidence and of the population value by at most 0.02.

9. What is the confidence coefficient in the given problem?

a. ±1.645 c. ±2.33
b. ±1.96 d. ±2.58

10. What is the desired error in the given problem?

a. 0.02 c. 0.05
b. 0.04 d. 0.95

11. What is the value of q̂ ?

a. 0.375 c. 0.635
b. 0.625 d. 0.85

12. How many respondents must be interviewed?

a. 22 c. 2250
b. 251 d. 2251

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 References

De Armas, Mary R., Ocampo, Jose M., Marquez, Wilmer G., Ansatacio, Teresita M.,
Coralejo, Enrique F. 2016. Senior High Conceptual Math & Beyond: Statistics
and Probability. Quezon City: Brilliant Creations Publishing, Inc.
Belecina, Rene R., BAccay, Elisa S., Mateo, Efren B. 2016. Statistics and Probability
.Manila: Rex Book Store, Inc.

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