Statistics

MODULE 23: Basic Concepts in Hypothesis Testing

LEARNING OUTCOMES

At the end of the module, you are expected to exhibit the following competencies:
1. Illustrate a statistical hypothesis.
2. Differentiate a null hypothesis from alternative hypothesis.
3. Differentiate Type I from Type II error.

IMPORTANT CONCEPTS

React on the government pronouncement about El Niño phenomenon. Describe the El Niño phenomenon and
its possible consequences further.

“The country will experience El Niño phenomenon in the next few months.”

• The pronouncement is a claim that may be true or false. Such claim could be referred to as a statistical
hypothesis. A statistical hypothesis is a claim or a conjecture that may either be true or false. The claim is
usually expressed in terms of the value of a parameter or the distribution of the population values.

• A statistical hypothesis is a claim or a conjecture that may either be true or false. The claim is usually expressed
in terms of the value of a parameter or the distribution of the population values.

• The actions we made have consequences. Possible consequences of accepting that the statement is true
include: (a) increase the importation of rice in anticipation of supply shortage; (b) buy materials for water
storage; (c) use drought-resistant varieties of rice; (d) invest in programs to make Filipinos ready; and the like.
On the other hand, when the statement is rejected because we think it is false, possible consequences are (a)
We are not prepared for rice and water shortage; (b) Farmers experience great loss on production; or (c) We do
not do anything.

• Some of the consequences are tolerable while other consequences are severe. Experiencing a few days of water
shortage is tolerable but having rice shortage for a month or two is unbearable. The degree of the possible
consequence is the basis in making the decision. If the consequences of accepting the claim that El Niño
phenomenon is going to happen are tolerable, then we may not reject the pronouncement. However, if the
consequences are severe, then we reject the claim.

Consider another statement or claim but this time regarding a parameter. Consider the average number of text
messages that a Grade 11 student sends in a day. The statement could be stated as follows:

“The average daily number of text messages that a Grade 11 student sends is equal to 100.”

As discussed earlier, this statement can either be true or false. Hence, one can accept or reject this statement.
The validity of this statement can be accessed through a series of steps known as test of hypothesis. A test of
hypothesis is a procedure based on a random sample of observations with a given level of probability of
committing an error in making the decision, whether the hypothesis is true or false.

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Basic Concepts in Hypothesis Testing
In hypothesis testing, we first formulate the hypotheses to be tested. In the formulation of the hypotheses, we
take note of the following:

• There are two kinds of a statistical hypothesis: the null and the alternative hypothesis. A null hypothesis is the
statement or claim or conjecture to be tested while an alternative hypothesis is the claim that is accepted in
case the null hypothesis is rejected. The symbol “Ho” is used to represent a null hypothesis while “Ha” is used
to represent an alternative hypothesis. The statement “The average daily number of text messages that a
Grade 11 student sends is equal to 100.” is considered a null hypothesis. In the event that we reject this claim,
we can accept another statement which states otherwise, that is, “The average daily number of text messages
that a Grade 11 student sends is not equal to 100.” This statement is our alternative hypothesis.

• In formulating the hypotheses, we can use the following guidelines:

1. A null hypothesis is generally a statement of no change. Thus, a statement of equality or one which involves
the equality is usually considered in the null hypothesis. Possible forms of the null hypothesis include
(a) equality;
(b) less than or equal; and
(c) greater than or equal.

2. The statistical hypothesis is about a parameter or distribution of the population values. For example, the
parameter in the statement is the average daily number of text messages that a Grade 11 student sends.
Usually, the parameter is represented by a symbol, like for the population mean, we use µ. Hence, the null and
alternative hypotheses could be stated using symbols as “Ho: µ = 100 against Ha: µ ≠ 100.”

3. The null and alternative hypotheses are complementary and must not overlap. The usual pairs are as follow:

(a) Ho: Parameter = Value versus Ha: Parameter ≠ Value;

(b) Ho: Parameter = Value versus Ha: Parameter < Value;
(c) Ho: Parameter = Value versus Ha: Parameter > Value;
(d) Ho: Parameter ≤ Value versus Ha: Parameter > Value; and
(e) Ho: Parameter ≥ Value versus Ha: Parameter < Value

• As discussed earlier, there are two actions that one can make on the hypothesis. One can either reject or fail to
reject (accept) a hypothesis. The table below shows these actions:

• The table shows that there are no errors committed when we reject a false hypothesis and when we fail to
reject a true hypothesis. On the other hand, an error is committed when we reject a true hypothesis and such
error is called a Type I error. Also, when we fail to reject (accept) a false hypothesis, we are committing a Type II
error.

• As mentioned earlier, for every action that one takes, there are consequences. When we commit an error, there
are consequences, too. Since it is an error in decision making, the consequences may be tolerable or too
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Basic Concepts in Hypothesis Testing
severe, severe enough to cause lives. In Statistics, we measure that chance of committing the error so we will
have a basis in making a decision.

PRACTICE SKILLS

1. As an assessment, choose one of the following problems and ask learners to formulate the appropriate null
and alternative hypotheses. You can also ask them to identify situations where Type I and Type II errors are
committed. Have them state its possible consequences.

a. A manufacturer of IT gadgets recently announced they had developed a new battery for a tablet and
claimed that it has an average life of at least 24 hours. Would you buy this battery?
b. A teenager who wanted to lose weight is contemplating on following a diet she read about in the
Facebook. She wants to adopt it but, unfortunately, following the diet requires buying nutritious, low
calorie yet expensive food. Help her decide.
c. Alden is exclusively dating Maine. He remembers that on their first date, Maine told him that her birthday
was this month. However, he forgot the exact date. Ashamed to admit that he did not remember, he
decides to use hypothesis testing to make an educated guess that today is Maine’s birthday. Help Alden
do it.
d. After senior high school, Lilifut is pondering whether or not to pursue a degree in Statistics. She was told
that if she graduates with a degree in Statistics, a life of fulfilment and happiness awaits her. Assist her in
making a decision.
e. An airline company regularly does quality control checks on airplanes. Tire inspection is included since
tires are sensitive to the heat produced when the airplane passes through the airport’s runway. The
company, since its operation, uses a particular type of tire which is guaranteed to perform even at a
maximum surface temperature of 107o C. However, the tires cannot be used and need to be replaced
when surface temperature exceeds a mean of 107o C. Help the company decide whether or not to do a
complete tire replacement.

REFERENCES

Richardson, M, Using Dice to Introduce Sampling Distributions. STatistics Education Web (STEW). Retrieved from
http://www.amstat.org/education/stew/pdfs/UsingDicetoIntroduceSamplingDistributio ns.doc

De Veau, R. D., Velleman, P. F., and Bock, D. E. (2006). Intro Stats. Pearson Ed. Inc.

Workbooks in Statistics 1: 11th Edition. Institute of Statistics, UP Los Baños, College Laguna 4031

Probability and statistics: Module 24. (2013). Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute and Education Services
Australia. Retrieved from http://www.amsi.org.au/ESA_Senior_Years/PDF/InferenceProp4g.pdf

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