Population Projection of Lucknow City.

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V

Bhutoria.
Economy & Demography :

• Lucknow is the capital of India’s most populous state and is surrounded by a number of small towns. The city has seen a
steady increase in population arising from natural growth, the incorporation of peri urban areas in the 1980’s and migration.
The Master Plan 2001 estimates the population at 4.5 million. The service sector forms the main economic base of the city.
Lucknow is also an important education centre, especially for primary and secondary education (relative to higher education),
and houses a number of research and development institutions. The state of infrastructure is one of several constraints that
prevents the city from achieving its economic potential.

Physical Characteristics :

• Lucknow has witnessed a radial growth – greater along the Faizabad Road and the Trans Gomti area and in recent years, the
city is witnessing a real estate boom with a large number of private developers entering the market. The latter has not been
factored into the Master Plan – the formal basis for Government panning. Estimates of infrastructure requirements and
population projections are therefore likely to be conservative. The position of the City as the only large urban centre amidst a
number of small towns in the surrounding districts makes it an attractive destination for job seekers and people in need of
education and health facilities. One of the features of the city’s growth has been an increase in the number of slums but
disagreements about the definition of slums and about data hamper efforts to address service delivery challenges in these
areas.
• The overall vision is “One of the five most liveable cities in India where every citizen enjoys a high quality of life and access to
basic services and amenities, and where local culture, crafts and heritage are preserved and promoted. A city with a dynamic
economy driven by service sectors such as knowledge-based education, health, tourism, and information technology that
provides opportunities for all and makes it an attractive investment destination”.
P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V
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• As shown in the growth pattern diagram, Lucknow in 1970 was a small town developing on one side of river Gomti, then it slowly developed on other side.
• It is developing slowly all along the peripheral boundaries of lucknow till 2011. There was a gradual and steady increase physically. Its Population growth rate is
declining at a reduced pace except in 1991 when it rose to 70.79 %. The town is historic and old with a beautiful history.
Source : Inception Report for Revised City Development Plan of Lucknow City under JnNURM.
P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V
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Projection Methods

• Arithmetical Increase (Progression) Method.

• Geometrical Increase or Uniform percentage Growth Method.
• Incremental Increase Method.
• Linear Growth Method.
• Exponential Growth Method.

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V

Bhutoria.
Arithmetical Increase (Progression) Method
Sr No Year Population Decadal Increase
1 1971 818361  
2 1981 1024748 206387
3 1991 1685834 661086
4 2001 2264865 579031
5 2011 2927943 663078
6 2021 3764619 836676
Total 2946258
Average 589252
Pn = P +nl
Pn = Future Population at the n decades
P = Present Population
n = Decades
l = average increase for a decade

Population in 2031 = 3764619 + (1.0 x 589252) = 4353871

Population in 2041 = 3764619 + (2.0 x 589252) = 4943123
Population in 2051 = 3764619 + (3.0 x 589252) = 5532375
Population in 2061 = 3764619 + (4.0 x 589252) = 6121627
P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V
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Geometrical Increase or Uniform percentage Growth Method
Sr No Year Population Decadal Increase Geometrical Increase
Rate of Growth
1 1971 818361    
2 1981 1024748 206387 0.32
3 1991 1685834 661086 0.65
4 2001 2264865 579031 0.34
5 2011 2927943 663078 0.29
6 2021 3764619 836676 0.29
Total 2946258
Average 589252  

Pn = P x (1+R)n
Pn = Future Population at the n decades
P = Present Population
n = Decades
R= Geometrical Mean Growth Rate

Geometrical Mean Growth Rate R = (0.32 x 0.65 x 0.34 x 0.29 x 0.29) 1/4

= (0.018)0.25
= 0.37

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V

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 Geometrical Mean Growth
Sr No Year n (1+R)n
Rate (R)

1 2021 Base Year    

2 2031 0.37 1 1.37
3 2041 0.37 2 1.88
4 2051 0.37 3 2.57
5 2061 0.37 4 3.52

Pn = P x (1+R)n

Population in 2031 = 3764619 x 1.37 = 5157529

Population in 2041 = 3764619 x 1.88 = 7077484
Population in 2051 = 3764619 x 2.57 = 9675071
Population in 2061 = 3764619 x 3.52 = 13251459

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V

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Incremental Increase Method
Sr No Year Population Decadal Increase (I) Incremental Increase (r)
1 1971 818361    
2 1981 1024748 206387  
3 1991 1685834 661086 454699
4 2001 2264865 579031 -82055
5 2011 2927943 663078 84047
6 2021 3764619 836676 173598
Total 2946258 630289
Average 589252 157573
Pn = P + nI + n(n+1)/2 *r
Pn = Future Population at the n decades
P = Present Population
n = number of decades
I = average increase per decade
r = average incremental increase
Population in 2031= 3764619 + (1.0 x 589252) + 1.0(1.0+1)/2 x 157573 = 4353871
Population in 2041= 3764619 + (2.0 x 589252) + 2.0(2.0+1)/2 x 157573 = 4943123
Population in 2051= 3764619 + (3.0 x 589252) + 3.0(3.0+1)/2 x 157573 = 5532375
Population in 2061= 3764619 + (4.0 x 589252) + 4.0(4.0+1)/2 x 157573 = 6121627
P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V
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Linear Growth Method
Sr No Year Population Decadal Increase
1 1971 818361  
2 1981 1024748 206387
3 1991 1685834 661086
4 2001 2264865 579031
5 2011 2927943 663078
6 2021 3764619 836676
Total 2946258
Average 589252

PopPROJ = PopLAST + B (Proj. year- Last. year)

B =(PoplAST - PopFIRST)/(Last. year- First. year)

Here, B = 3764619 – 818361 / 2021-1971 = 58925.

Pop (2031) = 3764619 + 58925 (2031 – 2021) = 4353869

Pop (2041) = 3764619 + 58925 (2041 – 2021) = 4943119

Pop (2051) = 3764619 + 58925 (2051 – 2021) = 5532369

Pop (2061) = 3764619 + 58925 (2061 – 2021) = 6121619

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V
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Exponential Growth Method
Sr No Year Population Decadal Increase (I) Incremental Increase (r)
1 1971 818361    
2 1981 1024748 206387  
3 1991 1685834 661086 454699
4 2001 2264865 579031 -82055
5 2011 2927943 663078 84047
6 2021 3764619 836676 173598
Total 2946258 630289
Average 589252 157573

PopPROJ = PopLAST (1+Growth.rate)(PROJ.YEAR-LAST.YEAR) 

(1+Growth.rate) = (PopLAST/PopFIRST) 1/(LAST.YEAR-FIRST.YEAR)

(1 + Growth rate) = (Pop(2021)/Pop(1971))1/(2021-1971) = (3764619/818361)1/50 = (4.60)0.02 = 1.03

Pop (2031) = 3764619 x (1.03)(2031-2021)  = 3764619 x 1.34 = 5044590

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V
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Comparison of Population projected by different methods
Sr Arithmetic Geometrical Incremental Linear Exponential
Year
No Increase Increase Increase Growth Growth
1 2031 4353871 5157529 4353871 4353869 5044590
2 2041 4943123 7077484 4943123 4943119 6813961
3 2051 5532375 9675071 5532375 5532369 9148025
4 2061 6121627 13251459 6121627 6121619 12272658

Comparative Bar Chart Showing Variations in

Population Projections using Different Methods
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0 Arithmetic
2031 Increase Geometrical
2041 Increase Incremental
2051 increase 2061
Linear Growth Exponential Growth
Source : Inception Report for Revised City Development Plan of Lucknow City under JnNURM.

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V

Bhutoria.
Sr Arithmetic Geometrical Incremental
Year Average
No Increase Increase Increase

1 2031 4353871 5157529 4353871 4621757

2 2041 4943123 7077484 4943123 5654577

3 2051 5532375 9675071 5532375 6913274

4 2061 6121627 13251459 6121627 8498238

• So, in the case of Lucknow as the average of these three

methods ie. Arithmetic Increase, Geometrical Increase &
Incremental Increase will give the reliable estimate of future
population projection for studying different planning
theories and fulfilling the needs of projected population in
terms of all its Infrastructure and all planning aspects, the
required steps to be undertaken.

THANK YOU

P.I.A.R. Planning Techniques Presented By : Rajnish V

Bhutoria.