The Afghanistan of Today

By Islam Wazir
islamudd@gmail.com
Afghanistan
Ethnic Diversity and Ethnic Politics
Rigid Traditional values
Conspiracy theories about Afghan War
Geostrategic position of Afghanistan
Regional Politics
War on Terror
Twin Tower incident and Invasion of Afghanistan.
The Taliban government in Kabul collapsed by
December 2001.
Many Taliban forces moved to the south and along the
contested border with Pakistan.
Hamid Karzai was installed as the President of the
interim government in 2001.
Taliban
United Nations Role
United Nation has failed in the process of this conflict
settlement.
United Nation is considered as a part to the conflict by
many Afghans.
Pakistan’s Role
Pakistan stand accused of playing both side.
Good and Bad Taliban Policy.
Taliban cannot win but the Afghan State cannot defeat
them either.
Many Believe that Taliban have only come back
because of the support of Pakistan.
So ?
Trump’s Policy
No deadline, no deadline of withdrawal.
Trump increased the number of troops, nearly 4,000
additional troops to Afghanistan.
A core pillar of Trump’s strategy is a shift from a time-
based approach to one based on conditions.
Another fundamental pillar of Trump’s strategy is the
integration of all instruments of American power
diplomatic, economic, and military toward a successful
outcome. (he claimed).
After an effective military effort, possible political
settlement that includes elements of the Taliban in
Afghanistan.
Trump’s Policy
America will continue its support for the Afghan
government and the Afghan military as they confront
the Taliban in the field.
It is up to the people of Afghanistan to take ownership
of their future, to govern their society, and to achieve
an ever-lasting peace.
Trump’s Policy
The next pillar of Trump’s strategy is to change the
approach in how to deal with Pakistan. (We can no
longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe-havens for
terrorist organizations, the Taliban and other groups
that pose a threat to the region and beyond).
Trump’s Policy
Today 20 U.S. designated foreign terrorist
organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The highest concentration in any region, anywhere in
the world. For its part, Pakistan often gives safe haven
to agents of chaos, violence, and terror. The threat is
worse because Pakistan and India are two nuclear-
armed states whose tense relations threaten to spiral
into conflict. And that could happen. (Trump's
speech).
Trump’s Policy
In Afghanistan and Pakistan, America's interests are
clear. We must stop the resurgence of safe havens that
enable terrorists to threaten America. And we must
prevent nuclear weapons and materials from coming
into the hands of terrorists, and being used against us,
or anywhere in the world for that matter. But to
prosecute this war, we will learn from history. (From
his speech on Afghan policy).
Critique
Trump’s Policy
New U.S. strategy for the war in Afghanistan without
offering details about changes to troop levels.
 The announcement marks a turnabout for Trump,
who as a private citizen once advocated for full U.S.
withdrawal. Since launching his campaign in 2015,
Trump has been far less vocal publicly about how the
United States can best approach the now-16-year-old
conflict.
Trump’s Policy
Experts on Afghanistan have been conflicted about
what to do in the country,
where the conflict between the Afghan government
and the Taliban is at a stalemate.
where corruption continues to hamstring governance,.
where regional and ethnic loyalties offers loyalties to
the central government.
Conflict Profile
Two decades of war have destroyed the economy,
social capital, productive foundation of the society .
Afghanistan has the highest number of landmines (10
millions) the largest refugee and disabled population,
the highest rates of infant mortality.
Conflict Profile
Life expectancy is 44 years, compared to an average of
53 years for other low-income countries worldwide.
Estimated 10,000 people were killed in 2010 alone, the
ratio is increased by 170 percent after 2010.
July 2010 Wikileaks: 90,000 secret military files
revealing how the coalition forces had killed hundreds
of civilians in unreported incidents.
The opium trade has increased massively since 2001.

90% of heroin is produced by Afghanistan these days.

Lack of stable governance mean that new conflicts will
continue to rise up.
The government is failing to extend its control or enter
into negotiations with the Taliban.
Conflict Settlement
Political Or Military ?.
Has the military option failed in Afghanistan or has
been less effective? .
80/20 American formula for Afghanistan.
Reality is 3/97