ANASTASIA ALAKIZ , JAMAL HARMOUCHE

ATABAK RAHIMZADEH
GIRNE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
MACHINE ELEMENTS 2

PRESENTATION
Overview
• Uncertainty
 Definition
 Types
 Methods to address uncertainty
• Design factor and factor of safety
 Definition
 Difference
 Importance of FOS
INTRODUCTION
Due to the imprecision associated with manufacturing
process; it is not possible to manufacture any dimension
to the exact theoretical value. Therefore a
manufacturing deviation is an irreducible uncertainty.
Aleatory uncertainty is modeled by random variables or
stochastic processes by probability theory if information
is sufficient to estimate probability distributions
Uncertainty
• UNCERTAINTY presents everywhere in any
engineering system at any stage of product
development and throughout a product life cycle
• In a brief definition of Uncertainty is “something not
definitely known or knowable”
• Uncertainty is classified into two types :
 Aleatory
 Epistemic
 Aleatory
• Aleatory uncertainty is defined as the randomness or
inherent variability of the nature, and it is objective and
irreducible.
• Aleatory uncertainty is usually modeled by probability
theory.
• Examples of this category include the dimensions of
manufacturing parts and material properties.
Epistemic
• Is due to the lack of knowledge or the incompleteness of
information. It is subjective and reducible.
• meaning that the uncertainty can be reduced through increased
understanding (research), or increased and more relevant data.
• Epistemic quantities are sometimes referred to as quantities
which have a fixed value in an analysis, but we do not know
that fixed value.
• For example, the elastic modulus for the material in a specific
component is presumably fixed but unknown or poorly known
Examples
Uncertainty in the basic load and strength variables of a
ship structure can significantly affect structural
performance and safety. Variations in strength, load and
load effects greatly impact the reliability of a structural
system. Understanding and including this variation, or
uncertainty, in the design and analysis of ship structures
requires the use of structural reliability-based design
and assessment methodologies.
Design Factor and Factor Of Safety

Design Factor is the ratio of the minimum breaking

strength to the permissible working load.

Factor Of Safety is the ratio of maximum strength to

intended load for the actual item that was designed.

By this definition, a structure with FOS of exactly one

will support only the designed load and no more, any
additional load will cause the structure to fail. A
structure with FOS of two will fail twice the design
load.
Design Factor and Factor Of Safety
Difference between Design Factor and Factor OF
Safety:

The safety factor is how much the designed part actually

will be able to withstand while the design factor is what
the item is required to be able to withstand.
Importance OF Factor Of Safety
Used to assure the structural designing does not occur
any unexpected failure or presence of deformation or
defect.
The smaller the Factor of Safety, the higher chances was
there for the design to be a failure. Resulting in an
uneconomical and nonfunctional design.
As for higher Factor of Safety, the components would
be much expensive resulting in a higher cost of the
design.
Resources
• https://
www.researchgate.net/publication/303517627_SUM
MARY_OF_SAFETY_CRITERIA_IN_DESIGN
• https://
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1559-3584.
2002.tb00128.x
• https://
www.quora.com/the-difference-between-factor-of-saf
ety-and-design-factor
Many Thanks!
Jamal harmouche181707001
Anastasia Alakiz 170601012