Project Management in a

Complex World
Based on
Project Management from Simple to Complex
by Russell Darnall and John M. Preston
http://catalog.flatworldknowledge.com/catalog/editions/preston_1-1-project-management-from-simple-to-complex-1-1
LEARNING OUTCOMES

 Organising to Manage Projects

 The Project Manager’s Skills
 Profiling a Project
 Complex Projects
The Darnall-Preston Systems Thinking Adaptive Systems
Complexity Index
PROJECT MANAGEMENT DEFINITIONS
What is the purpose of project management?

Project management is the application of knowledge,

skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet
the project requirements PMI

Project management is the application of knowledge,

skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet
the project requirements and the client’s expectations
Meredith and Mendel
PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS
What are the two main
characteristics of a project?
 Temporary
 Undertaken to create a product,
service or result that is unique
Contrast this to the operations manager, whose work is
oriented toward continuous improvement of existing
processes over longer periods of time
PROJECT MANAGEMENT SKILLS
Start-up activities
Close out activities
 Temporary
Project team members
Develop teams know this is
temporary; they may
Organise work report to other
managers too and their
Establish priorities career does usually
not depend on the
success of the project
PROJECT MANAGEMENT SKILLS
Time to understand the
deliverables
 Unique Develop a plan to produce
those deliverables
Execute the plan
OPERATIONS vs PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Operations managers focus on process and are
concerned with improving the processes by
making them faster or less costly
 Total quality management
 Continuous process improvement
 Lean manufacturing

More effective
More efficient
OPERATIONS vs PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project managers focus on goals of the project.
They strive to achieve these project goals within
the given timeline.
Their tools are designed to
 Clarify the goals
 Plan to meet these goals
 Meet the milestones and the end date
OPERATIONS vs PROJECT MANAGEMENT

An improvement of a work process

will cost £10,000

Should we go ahead?
OPERATIONS vs PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Does the Departmental/Operations

Manager have a role in a project?
OPERATIONS vs PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Operations management focuses on creating
incremental and continuous improvement in work
processes.

But increasingly, organisations are focused on step

changes to take advantage of new technologies to
create a significant improvement in the effectiveness or
the efficiency of these organizations…
…hence the need for project management
…and the project management skills
PROJECT MANAGEMENT OFFICE

Who will you call to manage your project?

 Consultants
Provide the project
 PMO manager

Project management
Project management
Centre of Excellence
policies and procedures
Portfolio management
Functional support Estimating Scheduling
Cost analysis
PROJECT MANAGEMENT SKILLS

Every project is unique, and most projects will

encounter unexpected technical challenges.
Each project management team is a group of
individuals who need motivation and
coordination. Planning is vital, but the ability to
adapt to changes and work with people to
overcome challenges is just as necessary. A
project manager must master the skills that are
necessary to be successful in this
environment.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT SKILLS
Often the difference the project that succeeds
and the project that fails is the leadership of the
project manager
 Good communication
 Team building
 Planning
 Expediting
 Motivating
 Political sensitivity
PROJECT MANAGEMENT SKILLS
The effective project manager should be able to
operate in the fluid matrix environments where
decisions are made with little information.
Effective project leader characteristics: Einsiedel [1987]
 Credibility
 Creativity as a problem solver
 Tolerance for ambiguity
 Flexibility in management style
 Effectiveness in communicating
PROJECT MANAGEMENT SKILLS
Providing direction
Communicating
 Interpersonal skills Assisting with problem solving
Dealing effectively with people
without having authority.
Understand important aspects
 Technical expertise of the project
Communicate in the language
of the technicians.

Planning
 Administrative skills Organizing
Controlling the work
Thamhain [1991]
PROJECT MANAGEMENT SKILLS
Increasingly, the project manager’s people skills are
becoming more important
Scoping
build a high-performing team
Estimating
manage client expectations
Scheduling
Decision making develop a clear vision of project
success
Team building
People skills
Traditional skills

“To say Joe is a good project manager except he lacks good

people skills is like saying he’s a good electrical engineer but
doesn’t really understand electricity.” Darnall [1997]
COMPEX PROJECT SKILLS
PMI recognises the following project management
functional areas
Project Start-Up and Integration
Project Scope Classroom Exercise
Project Schedule
Split into 10 groups. Each
and Time Management
group will present a project
Project Costs management function, discuss
Project Quality the effects of complexity on
Project Team: Human Resources these functions and suggest
Project Team: Communications how the seven themes of
PRINCE2 map onto these
Project Risk
functions.
Project Procurement
Project Stakeholders
COMPEX SYSTEMS
When is a project complex?

Depends how you define complex

In biology
COMPEX SYSTEMS

http://dfwscrum.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/empirical-process-control/
COMPEX SYSTEMS
Order is the opposite of complex

Ordered systems are homogeneous and redundant

Complex systems have multiple interacting components

whose collective behaviour cannot be simply inferred
from the behaviour of the components. Gould [1996]
COMPEX SYSTEMS
Complexity is usually determined by

 The number of parts or activities

 The degree of differentiation between the
parts
 The structure of their connections

i.e. complexity is context dependent

COMPEX SYSTEMS
For example
A nerve cell in the
A transistor has
human brain can be
three connections while
connected to thousands
to other parts
of other cells
COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
Projects are complex adaptive systems.
A complex adaptive system is a system consisting of a
large number of parts or activities that interact with each
other in numerous and various ways.
Successful adaptive systems adjust in a way that
facilitates or allows the system or project to achieve its
purpose.
The dependence of the project on the activities, the
interdependence of the activities, and the specialization
of the activities underscore the relationship dependence
of project activities. This relationship dependence is a
key aspect of complex adaptive systems.
COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS

The nature of complex

adaptive systems can
be probed by changing
or removing one
activity and studying
the effect this has on
other activities and the
behaviour of the whole
COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
To understand an adaptive system, activities must
be studied and understood as interrelated,
connected parts of the whole

If you remove a computer chip from a computer

and the computer powers down, does this mean
the chip was there to provide power to the
computer?
COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
To understand an adaptive system, activities must
be studied and understood as interrelated,
connected parts of the whole
If you remove or shorten the project initiation stage, will
the project finish earlier?
If no, why not?
Because the later project activities depend on kickoff
activities. Any change to the kickoff activities will
impact other activities and the project as a whole.
Any examples?
COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
A chemical company was building a new plant in Tennessee
with a new design model that was intended to shorten the
design phase on the project and lower the cost. The design of
the plant was managed by a United States–based company
with part of the design work contracted to an Indian company.
The engineers in the United States would work on the design
and would electronically transfer the design work to India at
the end of the day.
Engineers in India, many who had graduated from U.S.
colleges, continued to work on the design and at the end of
the day would electronically transfer the work back to the
United States.
Is this a good idea? Why?
COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
The project approach was abandoned when the project
started falling behind schedule. The added complexity of
the project offset the scheduling and cost benefit. The
project complexity profile became significantly less
complex when the execution approach changed from
global to domestic partnering. The execution model
could have worked but would have required more
investment during the start-up phase of the project.

Any comment (with reference to complexity)?

COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS

Complex adaptive systems have three

characteristics that are also reflected in complex
projects:
 Complex adaptive systems tend to self
organise
 Complex systems adapt to changing
environments
 The internal project organisation and
environment may be in a constant state of
change
COMPEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS
A pharmaceutical company in California developed a drug that improved the
quality of life for people with arthritis and in some cases prevented serious
debilitations and even death.
The drug was in the final FDA testing stage, and the company decided to accept
the risk and proceed with designing and building a facility to manufacture the
drug. The company had done this type of project before, and some managers
felt that the outcome would be fairly predictable. The company assigned the lead
scientist as the project manager to get the project started. Two weeks into the
project start-up, the company president realized the project needed a project
manager with more engineering and construction expertise and hired a new
person to manage the project. Then the company decided to build the facility on
land the company owned in Colorado, and the project team began designing a
facility that would fit the existing site. Thirty days into the design phase, the
company found an existing facility that could be retrofitted to meet the
production needs of the new drug.
During the first week of construction, the drug failed an FDA test and the project
was placed on hold.
Any comment (with reference to complexity)?
Was the project managed well?
COMPEX PROJECT MANAGEMENT
CPM is not a methodology. It is a discipline of thinking
about projects in a different way.
Existing traditional or classical processes and methods
remain an important ingredient to successful delivery of
all projects. However, whilst important, in an
ambiguous, uncertain and non-linear environment they
are sometimes not sufficient. Although it does introduce
new tools and approaches to education, complex
project management is not a new ‘process’ or ‘method’.
Complex Project Management is about helping equip
organisations and individuals with an improved set of
skills and tools.
Stephen Heyes
from http://www.openforum.com.au/content/what-complex-project-management
COMPEX PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Plan as if the project is deterministic

but be prepared for unpredictable
changes

Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you

one victory, but let your methods be regulated
by the infinite variety of circumstances.”
Sun Tzu c. 490 BC, Chinese military strategist
COMPEX PROJECT MANAGEMENT

‘Project managers who do superb jobs

on some projects will fail on others’

Discuss
Do projects have common attributes that
allow the characterisation or profiling of a
project?
E.g. large/small, one/many locations,
office building/chemical plant
PROJECT PROFILES
Project profiling is the process of
extracting a characterisation from the
known attributes of a project

Why is this useful?

It helps in
 Developing an appropriate execution approach
 Assigning resources (including the PM)
 Prioritizing projects
PROJECT PROFILES

Organizations have not had good tools for

understanding and matching the needs of
a project with the project manager who
has the right skills and experience

Discuss

http://www.huddle.com/blog/project-management/
PROJECT PROFILES
Profiling a project correctly requires a
system that is relatively easy to use but
includes enough attributes to capture the
most important characteristics of a
complex project
How would you profile a project with
regards to complexity?
[In other words, develop a typology of
projects]
Typology = classification, profile
PROJECT PROFILES
Shanhar and Dvir Proposed two dimensions,
technological uncertainty and
complexity of scope, for engineering
projects (see next slide)

Youker Proposed more dimensions:Uncertainty and risk

Sophistication of workers
Planning detail
Industrial sector
Location
Number of Workers
Cost
Complexity
Urgency
Organizational design
PROJECT PROFILES
Shanhar and Dvir Proposed two dimensions,
technological uncertainty and
complexity of scope, for engineering
projects (see next slide)

Youker Proposed more dimensions:Uncertainty and risk

Sophistication of workers
Planning detail
Industrial sector
Location
Number of Workers
Cost
Complexity
Urgency
Organizational design
 Technological uncertainty
PROJECT PROFILING MODELS vs system scope

Super
high
tech

High
tech

Medium
tech

Low
tech

Shenhar and Dvir 1996

Single component System project using Array project that includes

project interactive elements a dispersal of interactive
systems and sub-systems
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
To develop a project management typology you need
some assumptions.
What assumptions would you consider?
The DPCI was developed around four assumptions:
 All projects are unique
 Projects have common characteristics
 These characteristics can be grouped together to
create a project profile
 There is an optimum execution approach for each
project profile and therefore an optimum set of skills
and experience for the project manager and
execution team
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
The DPCI groups project attributes into four
categories:
 External Factors size, duration, resources

Clarity of objectives, clarity of scope,

 Internal Attributes internal organizational complexity,
stakeholder agreement

 Technological Complexity Newness and familiarity

 Environmental Attributes Legal, cultural,

political, ecological
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX

Size
 External Factors Duration
Resource availability

These factors are typically established early in

the project definition

The persistence of memory

http://daily-norm.com/2013/01/21/paris-la-visite-dart-exhibition-3-salvador-dali/
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Copper Mining in Argentina
When a project is larger than the comfort zone of a company,
stresses are placed on the ability to provide experience and
appropriate work processes, and the results are typically cost
overruns and schedule delays.
One example of this process was a copper mining project in
Argentina. The comfort zone of the company was projects
ranging from $150 million to $500 million. Projects over $500
million were divided into smaller projects. The mining project
was estimated to cost a little over $1 billion and the project was
divided into three projects, each with a project manager and
leadership team. Although the projects shared some resources
and reported to an oversight project manager, each project
developed a separate execution plan that included a budget
and schedule.
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Clarity of objectives
Clarity of scope
 Internal Attributes Internal organizational complexity
Stakeholder agreement

These are usually within the control or

influence of the project manager
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Confusion Over Objectives in Philadelphia
A consultant was asked to evaluate the likelihood of success of
a large project in Philadelphia. The consultant interviewed the
project leadership and asked if the goals of the projects were
clear. Each member of the leadership team responded that the
goals and objectives were clear.

Are we happy that the objectives are clear?

When asked what the goals

were, the answers varied
greatly.
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Is the technology new?
What aspects of the technology
 Technological are known and what aspects
Complexity unknown?
Does the project combine
technologies that have never
been combined?

Note: Technology of a project refers to the

product of the project, not the technology used
to manage the project

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Watch
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX

 Environmental
Complexity

Legal issues
Cultural conflicts
Political interests
Ecological – impact of the project on ecology
Ecological – impact of ecology on the project

Angelus inspired…
http://daily-norm.com/2013/01/21/paris-la-visite-dart-exhibition-3-salvador-dali/
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX

Use the four project profiling categories of

external, internal, technological and
environmental, as defined in the Darnall-
Preston Complexity Index to describe how
the Drug company project demonstrated
the attributes of a complex system
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX

Discussion
Around what assumptions was the DPCI
developed?
Discuss the value of each of these assumptions
The DPCI was developed around four assumptions:
 All projects are unique
 Projects have common characteristics
 These characteristics can be grouped together to create a project profile
 There is an optimum execution approach for each project profile and therefore an optimum
set of skills and experience for the project manager and execution team
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Tire Plant in India
A U.S. chemical company chartered a project team to design
and build a plant to produce the raw materials for building truck
tires designed for non-paved roads. The plant was to be
built in India.
Can you foresee any problem?
A few years earlier an accident involving a different US
chemical company had killed several Indians. When the
company announced the new project and began to break
ground, the community backlash was so strong that the project
was shut down. A highly involved stakeholder can significantly
influence your project.
Can you name/guess the disastrous event?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/3/newsid_2698000/2698709.stm
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Communication Problem in India
A team of project experts was sent to India to evaluate a large
construction project. The team arrived and reviewed the project
documents and found the project on time and meeting all
project goals.
Are we happy?
After spending three days with various contractors and team
managers, the team discovered the project was significantly
behind schedule and would miss an important window during the
monsoon season. A culture existed on the project where workers
told the project management what they expected to hear, and the
difference between the progress of the project team and the
progress reports became so large that the difference could not be
reconciled during the original schedule of the project.
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Discussion
How do you depict the four DPCI™, or even more, dimensions on
one page?
After all the DPCI can be used as a model to study/approve
projects.

http://pmblog.ninethsense.com/2011/09/spider-chart.html
COMPLEX OR COMPLICATED?
To recap, is the engine below complex?

No. It is complicated but not complex

Complicated has input and output flows and a straightforward
cause and effect, where the pieces can be well understood in
isolation and the whole can be reassembled from the parts; one
problem can bring the system down, since complicated systems
do not adapt
COMPLEX OR COMPLICATED?
Complex, in contrast is adaptive.

The hallmark of complex systems are adaptation, self-

organization, and emergence. No one designed the web or
metabolic process within a cell.

Complexity is the opposite of Simplicity

Or
Complicated is the opposite of Simple
and
Complex is the opposite of Independent
COMPLEX OR COMPLICATED?
Complex adaptive systems have many properties and
the most important are:
 Emergence
 Co-evolution
 Sub optimal
 Requisite Variety
 Connectivity
 Simple Rules
 Iteration
 Self Organising
 Edge of Chaos Equilibrium Chaos
os
 Nested Systems f ch
a
o
dge
http://www.trojanmice.com/articles/complexadaptivesystems.htm
e e
Th
COMPLEXITY AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Essay type questions

Explain what complexity thinking is and use it to explain

why traditional project thinking may not be adequate for
some projects in the 21st century

What is the difference between conventional and

adaptive project management
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Essay questions
Compare the attributes used by the Darnall-Preston Complexity
Index and those used by Youker. Which attributes are used in
both typologies? Which attributes are not in common? If you
chose to add one attribute to either typology what would it be?
Explain your answer.
-----
Complex systems. A complex system adapts to changes in its
external and internal characteristics. Describe a project with
which you are familiar that has experienced changes in its
external or internal characteristics during the life of the project
and describe how the project manager and the management
team changed their behaviour to adapt to the new situation or
how they failed to adapt and the result of that failure.
DARNALL-PRESTON COMPLEXITY INDEX
Discussion questions
Institutional memory. One of the responsibilities of a project
manager is to keep a history of past projects to create an
organizational knowledge base. Do you think using the DPCI™
as a basis for organizing those past projects would be useful?
How would you go about creating a storage and retrieval system
that uses the DPCI?
-----
Environmental impact. Describe a project that might have an
impact on the environment and the steps the project manager
might have to take. Describe the score you would give this
attribute if you were using the DPCI. how they failed to adapt and
the result of that failure.
The end
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_Framework

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Snowden
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8&feature=youtu.be
 http://www.kathleenhass.com/ComplexProjectManagement.htm

http://www.modernanalyst.com/Resources/Articles/tabid/115/artic
leType/ArticleView/articleId/1236/Complex-Project-Management-
Whats-All-the-Fuss-About.aspx
REFERENCES
Darnall R.W., 1997 The Emerging Role of the Project Manager. PMI Journal
Einsiedel A.A., 1987 Profile of Effective Project Managers, Project Management
Journal 18:5
Gould S.J., 1996 Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin, New
York Three Rivers Press
Shenhar A.J. and Dvir D., 1996 Toward a Typological Theory of Project
Management, Research Policy 25 pp607-632
Thamhain H.J., 1991 Developing Project Management Skills, Project Management
Journal 22:3
Youker R., 1998 Defining the Hierarchy of Project Objectives, IPMA Conference,
Slovenia
Na vro
 The art of killing, documentary from UoW professor, BAFTA 2014
http://www.westminster.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/media/2014/oscar-nominate
-BAFTA-winning-the-act-of-killing

Stakeholder management photo idea?

Russ Darnall—Creator of the Darnall-Preston Complexity Index

http://blogs.wsj.com/atwork/2014/03/04/treadmill-desks-may-improve-job-performance/