MACROECONOMICS

PRESENTATION
PRESENT BY:
FAHAD HUSSAIN (LCM-4139)
TOPIC:
PAKISTAN ECONOMY REVIEW (2020-
21)
Growth and Investment
 The economy of Pakistan bounced back emphatically in FY2021 and posted development of 3.94 percent.
 Based on a bounce back in practically all areas,
 the temporary GDP development rate is assessed at 3.9 percent by virtue of 2.8 percent development in
Agriculture,
 3.6 percent in the Industrial area and 4.4 percent growth in the Services area.
 GDP at current market costs remained at Rs 47,709 billion, showing a development of 14.8 percent during
FY2021 over last year (Rs 41,556 billion).
 In the dollar term, it remained $ 299 billion which is higher than its worth recorded last year ($ 263
billion).
 Private Consumption has a fundamentally huge offer in GDP.
 Imports of Goods and Services posted development of 20.1 percent.
 Exports of goods and services posted a development of 13.6 percent. Growth in Public Consumption
stayed lower than 19.3 percent.
 Agriculture
 The agriculture sector's performance during 2020-21 stands empowering as it growth by 2.77
percent against the objective of 2.8 percent.
 The production of major Kharif crops 2020, for example, sugarcane, maize and rice showed
extensive improvement.
 The cotton crop endured essentially because of decrease in region planted, weighty rainstorm
downpours and irritation assaults.
 Wheat is most important crop of "Rabi", which showed growth of 8.1 percent and arrived at record
high creation level of 27.293 million tons.
 Water availability during Kharif 2020 stayed at 65.1 million section of land feet (MAF) showing a
slight decrease of 0.2 percent.
 Rabi season 2020-21 got 31.2 MAF, showing an increment of 6.9 percent over Rabi 2019-20.
 During FY2021 (July-March), total tractor production was 36,653 compared to 23,266 produced
last year, an increase of 57.5 percent.
 Agriculture and livestock had a share of 60.07 percent in agriculture and 11.53 percent in GDP.
 Manufacturing and Mining
 The Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) execution has been much positive during July-March
FY2021.
 and saw 8.99 percent development when contrasted with 5.1 percent decline during a similar
period last year.
 Material and Food Beverages and Tobacco, the main two areas of LSM,grew by 5.9 and 11.7
percent, separately.
 The Mining and Quarrying area declined by 6.49 percent during FY2021, against 8.28
percent withdrawal last year.
 During July-March FY2021, creation of significant minerals plunged, for example, Coal,
Natural Gas and Crude Oil declined by 5.97, 4.70 and 6.72 percent, individually.
Fiscal Development

 The government fiscal sector recorded a surplus of Rs 451.8 billion during July-
March,
 FY2021 against the overflow of Rs 193.5 billion in same period last year.
 The fiscal deficit was contained at 3.5 percent of GDP compared to 4.1 per cent
of GDP in a similar time of the year before.
Money and Credit
 The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced the arrangement rate from 13.25 percent to 7.0
percent, inside right around 90 days among March and June 2020.
 The objective of money related arrangement was moved towards supporting growth and work
during the pandemic.
 During the period first July-30th April, FY2021 Broad cash saw an extension of Rs 1,664.8
billion (growth of 8.5 percent) against a similar period last year.
 Growth in cash supply for the most part contributed by Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the
banking system, which expanded by Rs 950.2 billion.
Capital Market’s and Corporate Sector

 As of May 31, 2021, the complete market capitalization of the Pakistan Stock Exchange
was Rs 8,267 billion.
 During July-May FY2021, the benchmark KSE-100 file improved from 34,889 focuses to
47,896 places, acquiring 13,006 focuses in the said period.
 An increment of 26.6 percent was seen in market capitalization, contrasted and the June
30, 2020 market  capacity of Rs 6,529 billion.
 Pakistan stock exchange saw five IPOs between July 2020 and March 2021,
 including The Organic Meat Company, TPL Trakker, Agha Steel Industries, Engro
Polymer and Chemicals Limited and Panther Tires Limited.
Inflation
 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the period July-May FY2021
 was recorded at 8.8 percent against 10.9 percent during a similar period last year.
 The other inflationary pointers like the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI),
 recorded at 13.5 percent against 14.0 percent last year, were also lower.
 Authoritative measures remembering a crackdown for speculative components and
resumption of sessional supplies of perishables assisted with limiting the inflationary
tensions.
Payments and Trade

 Pakistan's external sector has emerged as a critical buffer for resilience.

 During the July-April fiscal year 2021, goods exports increased by 6.5%.
 Imports of goods increased by 13.5 percent to $42.3 billion.
 As a result, the trade deficit increased by 21.3 percent.
 Pakistan's total liquid foreign exchange reserves increased by $ 3.8 billion.
Government Debt
 The global public debt to GDP rate climbed by 13 chance points, from 84 percent in 2019 to 97 percent
in 2020,
 whereas Pakistan's debt-to-GDP rate increased by only1.7 chance points, to87.6 percent at the end of
June 2020, over from85.9 percent in 2019.
 Pakistan's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall and remain below 84 percent at the end of the current
fiscal year.
 During the current fiscal year, the public debt portfolio experienced several positive developments, that
are also highlighted below:
 In fact, the government paid back Rs 569 billion to SBP during the current fiscal year.
 Short-term debt as a percentage of total domestic debt is expected to be around 23% at the end of
March 2021, down from 54% at the end of June 2018.
 -Total interest servicing was Rs 2,104 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, compared
to Rs 2,946 billion in the annual budget.
 Domestic interest payments constituted approximately 92 percent of total interest servicing during the
first nine months of the current fiscal year, owing to the higher volume of domestic debt in the total
public debt portfolio.
Education
 The total number of enrolments in 2018-19 was 52.5 million,
 up from 51.0 million in 2017-18, representing a 2.9 percent increase. During 2019-20,
 the number of teachers is expected to rise to 1.80 million.
 Education-related expenditures fell by 29.6 percent, from Rs 868.0 billion to Rs
611.0bn,
 as a result of educational institute closures and a drop in current expenditures caused
by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nutrition and Health
 The first wave of COVID-19 killed 6,795 people, infected 332,186 people, and left 632
people on ventilators.
 The Government of Pakistan has received 13.0 million doses of vaccine as of June 2nd,
2021, and had administered 8.3 million doses as of March 5th, 2021.
 The government is fully committed to increasing health coverage and providing good
nutrition.
 Pakistan's estimated population is 215.25 million, with a population growth rate of 1.80
percent in 2020 and a population density of 270 people per square kilometre.
 59 percent of the population is between the ages of 15 and 59, and 27 percent is between
15 and 29.
 This youth bulge can only result in economic gains if the youth have skills that are
compatible with the needs of a modern economy.
Transportation and communication
 Pakistan Railways is a major mode of public transportation in the country, contributing to
economic growth and national integration.
 The Pakistan National Shipping Cooperation Group has made significant strides in the bulk
and liquid cargo sectors.
 There has been consistent growth in IT & IT-enabled services (ITeS) remittances, with a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.85 percent.
 IT export remittances increased by 41.39 percent from July to February of FY2021 to $ 1.298
billion, up from $ 918 million in the same period of FY2020.
 The number of Pakistan Software Export Board (PSEB) registered IT & ITeS companies is
3,013 as of March 30, 2021, representing a 21% increase.
 During the fiscal year July-February 2021, telecom operators invested $ 363.9 million.
 Total investment in the telecom sector exceeded $ 465.0 million.
Power
 Pakistan's reliance on thermal energy, which includes imported coal, domestic coal, RLNG,
and natural gas, has been decreasing.
 The decline can be attributed to declining natural gas reserves as well as the introduction of
LNG since 2015.
 During July-February FY2021, the total supply of LPG was 927,683 metric tonnes.
Agriculture's share of electricity consumption remains consistent at 8.9 percent from July to
April of FY2021.
 Industry share of electricity consumption increased 26.3%2021 up from 25.5%.
 oil extraction and imports increased to 68.9 million barrels in July-March FY2021, up from
58.6 million barrels in the same period last year,
 while imports remained 48.2 million barrels, up from 38.8 million barrels in the same period
last year.
 Consumption of petroleum products increased to 14.7 million tonnes from 12.5 million tonnes.
 Social Security
 The government has given Rs 179.8 billion in one-time emergency cash assistance to 14.8 million
families.
 The number of Kafaalat recipients has increased from 4.6 million to 7 million.
 Interest-free loans are a key component of the National Poverty Graduation Initiative.
 Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) has disbursed approximately Rs 228 billion to its Partner
Organizations (POs) in 144 districts across the country.
 The total expenditure for core operations during July-March FY2021 was Rs 2.64 billion.
 Pakistan is one of the top ten countries most affected by climate change over the last two decades.
 The government of Pakistan has launched the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme to restore forest
cover and wildlife resources.
 To reduce the negative environmental impacts of automobile sector emissions while also stimulating
the economy,
 the government has approved its National Electric Vehicle Policy.