Supplement C Waiting Line Models

Operations Management by R. Dan Reid & Nada R. Sanders 4th Edition Wiley 2010

Learning Objectives


Describe the elements of a waiting line problem. Use waiting line models to estimate system performance. Use waiting line models to make managerial decisions.

Elements of Waiting Lines

 

Queue is another name for a waiting line. A waiting line system consists of two components:
 

The customer population (people or objects to be processed) The process or service system

Whenever demand exceeds available capacity, a waiting line or queue forms There is a tradeoff between cost and service level.

Customer Population Characteristics



Finite versus Infinite populations:



Is the number of potential new customers materially affected by the number of customers already in queue? When an arriving customer chooses not to enter a queue because it s already too long. When a customer already in queue gives up and exits without being serviced. When a customer switches between alternate queues in an effort to reduce waiting time.

Balking


Reneging


Jockeying


Service System


The service system is defined by:

    

The number of waiting lines The number of servers The arrangement of servers The arrival and service patterns The waiting line priority rules

Number of Lines


Waiting lines systems can have single or multiple queues.



Single queues avoid jockeying behavior and perceived fairness is usually high. Multiple queues are often used when arriving customers have differing characteristics (e.g. paying with cash, less than 10 items, etc.) and can be readily segmented.

Servers


Single servers or multiple, parallel servers providing multiple channels Arrangement of servers (phases)


Multiple phase systems require customers to visit more than one server Example of a multi-phase, multi-server system:
1 4

Arrivals

2 3 Phase 1

5 6 Phase 2

Depart

Example Queuing Systems

Arrival & Service Patterns



Arrival rate:


  

The average number of customers arriving per time period Modeled using the Poisson distribution Arrival rate usually denoted by lambda (P) Example: P=50 customers/hour; 1/P=0.02 hours between customer arrivals (1.2 minutes between customers)

Arrival & Service Patterns con t



Service rate:


 

The average number of customers that can be served during the period of time Service times are usually modeled using the exponential distribution Service rate usually denoted by mu () Example: =70 customers/hour; 1/=0.014 hours per customer (0.857 minutes per customer).

Even if the service rate is larger than the arrival rate, waiting lines form!


Reason is the variation in specific customer arrival and service times.

Waiting Line Priority Rules

       

First come, first served Best customers first (reward loyalty) Highest profit customers first Quickest service requirements first Largest service requirements first Earliest reservation first Emergencies first Etc.

Waiting Line Performance Measures



  

Lq = The average number of customers waiting in queue L = The average number of customers in the system Wq = The average waiting time in queue W = The average time in the system p = The system utilization rate (% of time servers are busy)

Single-Server Waiting Line



Assumptions
 

 

Customers are patient (no balking, reneging, or jockeying) Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution with a mean arrival rate of P. This means that the time between successive customer arrivals follows an exponential distribution with an average of 1/ P The service rate is described by a Poisson distribution with a mean service rate of . This means that the service time for one customer follows an exponential distribution with an average of 1/ The waiting line priority rule is first-come, first-served Infinite population

Formulas: Single-Server Case

P ! lambda ! mean arrival rate Q ! mu ! mean service rate P p ! ! average system utilizatio n Q Note : Q " P for system stability. If this is not the case, an infinitly long line will eventually form.

Formulas: Single-Server Case con t

P ! average number o customers in system L! Q P Lq ! pL ! average number o customers in line 1 ! average time in system including service W! Q P Wq ! pW ! average time spent aiting Pn !   p p n ! probability o n customers in the system 1 at a given point in time

State Univ Computer Lab



A help desk in the computer lab serves students on a first-come, first served basis. On average, 15 students need help every hour. The help desk can serve an average of 20 students per hour. Based on this description, we know:


= 20 students/hour (average service time is 3 minutes) P = 15 students/hour (average time between student arrivals is 4 minutes)

Average Utilization

P 15 p! ! ! 0.75 or 75% Q 20

Average Number of Students in the System, and in Line

P 15 L! ! ! 3 students Q  P 20  15
Lq ! pL ! 0.753 ! 2.25 students

Average Time in the System & in Line

1 1 W! ! ! 0.2 hours Q  P 20  15 or 12 minutes Wq ! pW ! 0.750.2 ! 0.15 hours or 9 minutes

Probability of n Students in the Line

0 1 2 3 4

1 1 1 !   p p !   0.75 ! 0.25
0

1 1 !   p p !   0.75 0.75 ! 0.188

1

1 1 !   p p !   0.75 0.75 ! 0.141

2 2

1 1 !   p p !   0.75 0.75 ! 0.105

3 3

1 1 !   p p !   0.75 0.75 ! 0.079

4 4

Single Server: Spreadsheet Approach

Key Formulas
A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 B C

Queuing Analysis: Single Server

Inputs Time unit Arrival Rate (lambda) Service Rate (mu) Intermediate Calculations Average time between arrivals Average service time Performance Measures Rho (average server utilization) P0 (probability the system is empty) L (average numberin the system) Lq (average number waiting in the queue) W (average time in the system) Wq (average time in the queue) hour 15 20

B9: =1/B5 B10: =1/B6 B13: =B5/B6

customers/hour customers/hour

B14: =1-B13 B15: =B5/(B6-B5)

0.066667 0.05

hour hour

B16: =B13*B15 B17: =1/(B6-B5) B18: =B13*B17 B22: =(1-B$13)*(B13^B21)

0.75 0.25 3 2.25 0.2 0.15

customers customers hour hour

Probability of a specific number of customers in the system Number 2 Probability 0.140625

Use Data Table (tracking B22) to easily compute the probability of n customers in the system.

Single Server: Probability of n Students in the System

Probability of Number in System
0.3000 0.2500 Probability 0.2000 0.1500 0.1000 0.0500 0.0000 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 Number in System 30 0 2 4 6 8

Multiple Server Case



Assumptions


 

Same as Single-Server, except here we have multiple, parallel servers Single Line When server finishes with customer, first person in line goes to the idle server All servers are identical

Multiple Server Formulas

P ! lambda ! mean arrival rate Q ! mu ! mean service rate for one server s ! number of parallel, identical servers P ! average system utilization p! sQ ote : sQ " P for system stability. If this is not the case, an infinitly long line ill eventually form.

Multiple Server Formulas con t

P / Q P / Q 1  0 ! 1  p ! probability of zero n! s! n!0 customers in the system at a given point in time
s 1 n s
1

P / Q n  0 for n e s n! ! probability of n customers n ! n  P / Q 0 for n " s n s s!s in the system at a given point in time

Multiple Server Formulas con t

Lq !

P / Q p ! average number of customers in line 2 s!  p 1

s 0

Wq ! Lq P ! average time spent waiting in line 1 W ! Wq  ! average time in system including service Q L ! PW ! average number of customers in system

Example: Multiple Server

  

Computer Lab Help Desk Now 45 students/hour need help. 3 servers, each with service rate of 18 students/hour Based on this, we know:
  

= 18 students/hour s = 3 servers P = 45 students/hour

Flexible Spreadsheet Approach



Formulas are somewhat complex to set up initially, but you only need to do it once! For other multiple-server problems, can just change the input values. This approach also makes sensitivity analysis possible.
C

nputs Time unit Arriva Rate ( ambda) ervice Rate per erver (mu) Number of Servers (s) nter ed ate Ca cu at ons Average time between arriva s Average service time per server Combined service rate (s*mu) erfor ance easures Rho (average server utilization) 0 (probability the system is empty) L (average numberin the system) Lq (average number waiting in the queue) W (average time in the system) Wq (average time in the queue)

hour 45 18 3

customers hour customers hour servers

0 022222 hour 0 055556 hour 54 customers hour

0 833333 0 044944 6 011236 3 511236 0 133583 0 078027

customers customers hour hour

robab t of a spec f c nu ber of custo ers n the s ste Number 5 Probability 0 081279

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Queu ng na s s:

u t p e ervers

E F G H 3 Work ng Ca cu at ons, a n for 0 Ca cu at on 4 2.5 5 lambda mu 6 6 s! 7 n (P/Q)^n n! Su 8 0 1 1 1 9 1 2.5 1 3.5 10 2 6.25 2 6.625 11 3 15.625 6 9.229166667 12 4 39.0625 24 10.85677083 13 14 5 97.65625 120 11.67057292 15 6 244.14063 720 12.00965712 16 7 610.35156 5040 12.13075862 17 8 1525.8789 40320 12.16860284 18 9 3814.6973 362880 12.17911512 19 10 9536.7432 3628800 12.18174319 20 11 23841.858 39916800 12.18234048 21 12 59604.645 479001600 12.18246492 22 13 149011.61 6.227E+09 12.18248885 23 14 372529.03 8.718E+10 12.18249312 24 15 931322.57 1.308E+12 12.18249383 25 16 2328306.4 2.092E+13 12.18249394 26 17 5820766.1 3.557E+14 12.18249396 18 14551915 6.402E+15 12.18249396 27 99 2.489E+39 9.33E+155 12.18249396 108 100 6.223E+39 9.33E+157 12.18249396 109

Key Formulas for Spreadsheet

              

F10: =F$5^E10 (copied down) G10: =E10*G9 (copied down) H10: =H9+(F10/G10) (copied down) F5: =B5/B6 F6: =INDEX(G9:G109,B7+1) B10: =1/B5 B11: =1/B6 B12: =B7*B6 B15: =B5/B12 B16: = (INDEX(H9:H109,B7)+ (((F5^B7)/F6)*((1)/(1-B15))))^(-1) B17: =B5*B19 B18: =(B16*(F5^B7)*B15)/(INDEX(G9:G109,B7+1)*(1-B15)^2) B19: =B20+(1/B6) B20: =B18/B5 B24: =IF(B23<=B7, ((F5^B23)*B16)/INDEX(G9:G109,B23+1), ((F5^B23)*B16)/ (INDEX(G9:G109,B7+1)*(B7^(B23-B7))))

Probability of n students in the system

P obability of um e in System
0.1600 0.1400 0.1200 P obability 0.1000 0.0800 0.0600 0.0400 0.0200 0.0000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 Num e in System 30

Changing System Performance



Customer Arrival Rates



Try to smooth demand through non-peak discounts or price promotions Increase or decrease number of servers, or dedicate specific servers for certain tasks (e.g., express line for under 10 items) Can use multi-phase system instead of single phase. This spreads the workload among more servers and may result in better flow (e.g., fast food restaurants having an order phase, pay phase, and pick-up phase during busy hours)

Number and type of service facilities



Change Number of Phases



Changing System Performance



Server efficiency
 

Add resources to each phase (e.g., bagger helping a checker at the grocery store) Use technology (e.g. price scanners) to improve efficiency Example: implement a reservation protocol Reduce multiple lines to single queue to avoid jockeying Dedicate specific servers to specific transactions

Change priority rules



Change the number of lines

 

Waiting Lines Models within OM: How it all fits together



Although it is unlikely that you calculate performance measures for the lines you wait in on a day-to-day basis, you should now be aware of the potential for mathematical analysis of these systems. More importantly, management has a tool by which it can evaluate system performance and make decisions as to how to improve the performance while weighing performance against the costs to achieve that performance. Waiting line models are important to a company because they directly affect customer service perception and the costs of providing a service.

Supplement C Highlights


The elements of a waiting line system include the customer population source, the patience of the customer, the service system, arrival and service distributions, waiting line priority rules, and system performance measures. Understanding these elements is critical when analyzing waiting line systems. Waiting line models allow us to estimate system performance by predicting average system utilization, average number of customers in the service system, average number of customers waiting in line, average time a customer waits in line, and the probability of n customers in the service system. The benefit of calculating operational characteristics is to provide management with information as to whether system changes are needed. Management can change the operational performance of the waiting line system by altering any or all of the following: the customer arrival rates, the number of service facilities, the number of phases, server efficiency, the priority rule, and the number of lines in the system. Based on proposed changes, management can then evaluate the expected performance of the system.

The End
Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of this work beyond that permitted in Section 117 of the 1976 United State Copyright Act without the express written permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Request for further information should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. The purchaser may make back-up copies for his/her own use only and not for distribution or resale. The Publisher assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or damages, caused by the use of these programs or from the use of the information contained herein.