Framing VE WithinThe Mindanao

Conflict Issues and the Marawi Crisis

By
Bebot Rodil
October 17, 2017
 LEGEND: Conflict-Affected Areas
Moro

CPP/NPA

Lumad
Marawi Siege
The attack on the Islamic City of Marawi manifests a tactical shift from rural to urban
July 22, 2017 --- 466,040

Sept. 18, 2017 --- 359,680

75 Evacuation Centers in 16 municipalities

loob
 Nasiraan ng loob

Mabuhayan ng loob
Nagkasiraan ng loob

Magkabalikan ng loob
CSO Shared Vision and Proposed Strategies are Results of the 2-
day workshop and consolidation of past weekly meetings
 Vision, mission, framework, coordination,
action & strategies
• Reconstruction
• Housing
• Peace and Order
• Business Livelihood
• Social Welfare
 Compelling Questions on the Ground
About

• What will be fate of the Bangsa Moro Basic Law?

• When can we go back to Marawi?
• How are we going to get back to our land and
kabuhayan?
• How to sustain the supply of basic necessities for the
displaced?
• How to answer to the great need for psychosocial
support ?
 Moro Self-determination

Protracted Peace Process

41 years of the Bangsamoro peace

process
 Ungoverned Spaces
• Security
• Education
• Health
• Justice
 Increase of Muslim-
Christian Tensions
Among the disturbing results of the
Marawi siege is the reigniting of
Muslim-Christian tensions
ISIS
resources/ Drug

?
ideology
Lords
resources
ASG Nonstate
Isnilon Actors
Hapilon resources/
ideology

blood relations

Religious
Leaders

Community CSO

Traditional
Leaders
 economically
marginalised

Justice
seekers/Orp
Ideology
hans

Relatives/Clan members?

Drivers to recruitment may not be the same among VE members

 Campaign lines
• Informants said that campaign lines used in
convincing potential recruits to join the
group are valid and legitimate issues.

• these include the perceptions of weak

governance, inefficient justice system, and
lack of access to basic services etc.
 Push and Pull Factors
1. Legitimate grievances and histories of injustices
and human rights violations as push factors
2. “Idealized Jihad” and ISIS Ideology
3. Perceived absence or weak governance
(breakdown of law and order; corruption; lack
of access to basic social services)
4. Proliferation of loose firearms
5. Rido and self-preservation
6. Monetary incentives and allowances as pull
factors
 “Idealized Jihad” as pull factor
• The VE Group Maute is more than just an organization;

• It represents an ideology that spins a heroic

narrative of an idealized version of the “True
Jihad”, which they think was abandoned by non-state
actors when they started peace talks with the
government.
• For example, this “True Jihad” was diluted when
the MILF negotiated for the establishment of
an autonomous political entity rather than a
“True Islamic State”.
 “Idealized Jihad” as pull factor
• These ideology and narrative are either passed online
through social media or spread by method of
indoctrination in spaces called study circles
among prospective recruits.
• Some informants claim that members of the VE group
are the “real” Mujahidens as seen and manifested
in their teachings that forbid evil deeds and promote
good will.
 Monetary incentives, allowances and
other rewards as pull factors
• Aside from embracing the group’s ideology and taking this as
an opportunity to vent out frustrations, there are also
narratives that speak of monetary incentives in the form
of monthly allowances that are promised to prospective
recruits.
• This allowance range from Php3, 000 to as high as PhP16,
000 per month.
• There were also promises of other rewards including
chances of getting married (K’naba bo man perak,
sad’n sa phangnin o precruit’n iran, ibarat o
kapangaroma, o kabaya iyan a phangaroma na ptaroon
iranon a pakapangaromaan ami ska)
 Social Obligation and Honor
• According to the informants, recruitment follows
a method that works with and through
family as well as local religious networks.
• Some mentioned that the military action in
response to the Butig incident in February of
2016 only attracted more fighters, appealing to
the family members, concerned community
members and the individual even without
incentives (protection, allowances) and coercion
or direct threats.
 Social Obligation and Honor
• Potency of Maratabat or pride as a construct
that combines issues of status, identity and
history of a clan or family to serve as a direct
appeal to one of the most fundamental,
pervasive and persuasive pull factors – social
obligation and honor in serving the
family.
 Legitimate grievances and histories of
injustices and human rights violations
psychological hooks

• Main attraction is the ubiquitous message of injustices and

human rights violations, anti-Muslim oppression and the
global jihad.
• These narratives appeal most to those who already have grievances
against the military or the government in general.
• Among them include sons and daughters of fallen “local combatants”
who wants to seek revenge/justice.
• There are those whose villages have been rampaged by the
wars in the past and yet have not benefitted from
rehabilitation programs promised by the government.
• As a result of wanting to vent out their frustrations, they joined the
group believing that the government is not serious in the
peace talks as evidenced by instances of failed negotiations.
• Some of the informants said that joining the group is seen as a
way for some individuals to seek justice for loved ones who
lost their lives because of the armed violent conflicts in the past.
• Thus, revenge seekers might actually be justice seekers
who might lose face once they fail to achieve what they need.
• The informants also said that some of the VE members are
joining the group as a means to establish identity and status
in their community.
• Others, on the other hand, are said to have joined because of
the need to survive and earn money.
• Informants also mentioned that VE members
apparently couldn’t leave the organization because of
the threat of losing their lives.
 Reported violent conflict incidents,
Lanao del Sur, 2011-2016
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 Illegal drugs

Illicit firearms

Rido or clan feud

Robbery

Kidnap-for-ransom

Carjacking

Personal grudge

Gender-related
issues Violent conflict incidents
by top specific cause,
Damage to properties Lanao del Sur, 2011-2016*
*Aggregated
Rebellion

0 50 100 150 200 250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

 1
The military attack against extremists in Marawi has
effectively ended, but it is unlikely to end the appeal of
violent extremism in Marawi and other places within
and beyond Mindanao.

World Bank Philippines Office,

BGC, Taguig, MMLA
 2
The crisis brought about by Marawi is aggravated by the
shifting perceptions and sentiments of the victims of Marawi
towards the causes of their suffering, and consequently, the
target of their unrest.

World Bank Philippines Office,

BGC, Taguig, MMLA
 3
The recovery and rebuilding process is likely to be accompanied
by new pressures and potential flashpoints such as
revenge-killings, and violent conflicts over property rights
and urban dwelling and space.

World Bank Philippines Office,

BGC, Taguig, MMLA
 4
It will be difficult to replicate a similar urban assault like
Marawi in the short term but the threat of a similar attack
in the future remains real.

World Bank Philippines Office,

BGC, Taguig, MMLA
The past six years saw the rise of the BIFF, and the Maute Group makes
its presence felt only in 2016
In terms of conflict magnitude, the ASG and the Maute Group were deadlier
 Some important implications

• Newly emerging forms of violence such as violent extremism requires context-

specific and conflict-sensitive approaches. The prominence of a security-
focused response may neglect the long-term process of building community
• Urban
cohesion and resilience against other underlying areas
drivers have increasingly
of violent become
conflict such as
theatres
land-based conflicts and revenge. The possibility of violence
of eruption with the conducive
and intensification of
nature of
violent conflict over property rights, boundary issues, theidentity-based
and areas, e.g., highly dense
conflicts is
population,
high given the long-history of these conflict causes fractious nature with different
in the area.
groups, ideology, and affiliations in the
• Harnessing formal and informal mechanisms area.
for social protection are
important, especially with the existence•of Examine
rival rule the broader
systems thatconflict
may be dynamics
exclusionary and despotic. The rebuilding process
of Marawiis anand
opportunity
beyond,toconsidering
directly the
strengthen the political and economic positionparallel
of vulnerable groups
flashpoints such
that as women
happened in
and youth, which in turn can contribute to building
areas resiliency
around theagainst extremist
Liguasan Marsh in
influences. Maguindanao.
• Newly emerging forms of violence such as violent
extremism requires context-specific and conflict-
sensitive approaches. The prominence of a security-
focused response may neglect the long-term process
of building community cohesion and resilience.

• Harnessing formal and informal mechanisms for

social protection are important, especially with the
existence of rival rule systems that may be
exclusionary and despotic
Dawla Islamiya attempts to penetrate Iranun corridor
but is unsuccessful
 Mainlandattempts
Dawa Islamiya Conflict Map
to of Violent Extremism:
penetrate Iranun corridor
Why are some communities impervious to violent extremism?
but is unsuccessful
Healing and Building Social Cohesion
 We should look at the
problem where we are also
players…
and can therefore influence
the outcome

We can choose to be part of the

problem or part of the solution.