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Background Objectives
• Increase in conflict-induced • One, the study should deepen
forced displacement and the view understanding of the links between
that the trigger is rebellion-related violence, displacement, and
conflict radicalization in the Eastern
Mindanao region.
• Claims by the security forces that • Three, the study should influence
CARAGA and Southern Mindanao the development and peace building
are key areas of the communist strategies of local government units
insurgency. and development agencies at
various levels.
Internal displacement defined (UNHCR, WB)
• There are pull and push factors for radicalization and recruitment:
Push factors include: (a) poverty rather than religion; (b) bravery; (c)
intra-factional struggles and revenge; (d) displacement and familial
separation; (e) having a family member among the rebels.
Pull factors include: (a) the power and authority that comes with holding
a gun; (b) truncated learning trajectories of youth; and (c) national,
subnational, and/or Islamist narratives.
Review of literature (3)
Initial endowments and the greed and grievance dynamic
• The idea that rebels can ‘do well out of war’ was proposed as a more
convincing explanation of the onset of conflict than sociopolitical
grievances, income and asset inequality, ethnic rivalry or the absence of
democracy (Collier, 2000).
Review of literature (4)
Radicalization utilizes displacement as a strategy of war
• The UNHCR has stated that “refugee movements are no longer the
side effects of conflict, but in many cases are central to the
objectives and tactics of war.” (Newman 2014)
• Lack of security and protection from the State. The Philippine Human
Development Network (2005) argue that security must now be
understood not in terms of abstract geopolitical or regime goals, but in
how safe and free ordinary people feel in their daily lives and in their
communities.
• Displacement and recruitment is the product of discrimination and
persecution. Radicalization can be caused by the systematic
discrimination of a group, and their legal and political persecution in their
homeland.
• The resurgence of horizontal conflict and proxy wars and the
utilization of ethnic cleavages polarize and radicalize communities.
Soeter (2005) and Wippler (1978) propose that more violence is used
between peers than between a superior and a subordinate group or party.
• Radicalization as the consequence of inequalities and exclusion of
certain groups in the domestic and international governance of
displacement and aid.
Methodologies
Common Crimes Identity Issues Shadow Economy Issues Governance Issues Resource Issues Political Issues
Dinagat Islands
Rebellion Resource Issues Identity Issues Governance Issues Shadow Economy Issues Common Crimes
90
80
70 200
Rebellion Resource Issues Identity Issues
60
50
40
100
30
20
10
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Highlights of the results (1)
• The PNP report of Surigao Sur shows that the main cause of conflict is
common crimes, followed by identity issues. Meanwhile, the AFP
report shows that the main cause is rebellion, followed by resource
issues.
• When connected to effects on displacement, a disconnect emerges
between causes and costs. There are more incidents caused by rebellion
and/or common crimes, but their displacement effects are less than those
conflicts caused by identity.
INTERVIEW:
We had to leave after the military established a camp in our
community and we knew that it can attacked by the NPA and then we
would be accused of supporting the guerrillas.
INTERVIEW:
“We were trained in conducting evacuations even before our
communities became a hotbed, we know what to do, what to say, what
not to say, where to go, where not to go, whom to get assistance from,
whose assistance we should refuse, who to speak to, and whom not to
speak to.”
Highlights of the results (3)
The extreme cases study of Lianga and Lanuza has turned up some interesting
empirical evidence about how the differential impact of access to ancestral lands
may predict onset of identity-based conflict. Indigenous peoples groups in
Lanuza have been able to secure CADTs in their areas while IP groups in Lianga
have not.
Highlights of the results (5)
INTERVIEW:
“Financial support, provision of employment, “big-brother” mentoring and
the constant monitoring of the needs of those who have left the rebel
ranks is discontinued when a new government comes to power. Some of
the former rebels I helped have been harnessed by kidnap-for-ransom and
hit squads.”
Highlights of the results (6)
INTERVIEW:
“Most of the recruits were too young to be politically or ideologically aware,
since most recruits nowadays are below the age of 18. In these cases, it was
mainly their kinship ties and the presence of elder authority figures that
induced them to join the NPA.”
INTERVIEW
“I am the product of labour organizing in a logging company, I was angry
because of the discrimination we faced and the violation of our rights because
we were considered below the stature of a Bisaya. This anger led me to the
NPA.”
Highlights of the results (7)
INTERVIEW
“Displacement is not unidirectional—some of the victims who
got displaced avoided violence from both sides, yet some were
displaced to areas closer to the NPA, and still others got
displaced to areas closer to the ARMY and CAFGU camps.”
Highlights of the results (8)
Gender-displacement-radicalization
• Both the rebels and the military are gender blind: “we suffer the
most, and those who engineer displacements are either gender-
blind or are not bothered by the multiple burdens that women face
in camps.”
• Women less prone to radicalization and recruitment, as they often
carry the multiple burdens in camps.
• Masculinity issues in the camps are highly pronounced and can
intensify gender-based violence, but there is no evidence of
triggering radicalization. Some cases of abandonment and suicide
have been reported.
• Most cases of identity-based violence happen in urban areas
where gender-based violence is at a high 90 percent. Further
study is needed to assess the links between gender violence and
radicalization.
Highlights of the results (9)
Causal linkages
• Five (5) causal linkages emerge from the study as empirical and plausible
explanations of the links between conflict and displacement, and between
displacement and radicalization. The current narrative suggests that the
stepwise process is Rebellion ► Displacement ► Radicalization
• However, several nuances accompany the causal linkage above:
Rebellion-related conflict ►Ethnic polarization ►tribal and
clan (identity) conflicts ► displacement
Radicalization ► Polarization ► Rebellion-related Conflict ►
Displacement (to provoke or to capture communities as a
strategy of war)
Displacement ►Discrimination ► Radicalization
Economic endowments ► Resource capture ► Displacement
► Radicalization (resource-curse thesis)
Displacement ►Criminal violence ► Recruitment/
radicalization
Identity is at the nexus between conflict,
displacement and radicalization
CONFLICT
IDENTITY
Conclusions
• Research question:
Why are the displaced more vulnerable to radicalization?
Because displacement arises mainly from identity-based conflict, not
displacement per se, that provides fertile ground for polarization and
eventual radicalization.
We cannot distinguish a robust linear connection between conflict-
displacement-radicalization. Instead conflict has to induce polarization
for radicalization to occur.
Ethnic polarization is the avenue that leads to radicalization and
recruitment, and is also the reason why insurgent activity is often in
the form of revenge killings and retaliation.
Ethnic fragmentation can also lead to corruption and exclusion that
triggers polarization, but it can also strengthen diversity and social
cohesion.
Conclusions