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HOA SEN UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF BANKING AND FINANCE

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CORPORATE FINANCE

CHAPTER 2
THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY

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Chapter 2: THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY
• Main Contents:
1. Future values and Compound interest
2. Present values
3. Multiple cash flow
4. Level cash flow: Perpetuities and
Annuities
5. Inflation and the time value of money
6. Effective annual interest rate

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• Option 1: Have $ 1,000 in 2021 (today)
• Option 2: Have $ 1,000 in 2026 (after 5 years)
Which option will you select?
“A dollar today is worth more than a dollar
tomorrow”

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IMPORTANT TERMINOLOGIES
* Interest (r) - return earned by someone who has “rented”
money out or, amount paid by someone who has “rented” the
money from another party
* Principal- amount borrowed or invested
* Future value (FV): The amount of an investment is worth
after one or more periods.
* Present value (PV): the current value of a future sum of
money or stream of cash flows given a specified rate of return
* Compounding (compound interest): Earning interest on
interest
* Simple interest: Earning interest on original investment
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IMPORTANT TERMINOLOGIES

• Cash Flows (Inflows and Outflows)


• Rate of Return ($ return earned by an investor) : is the
net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time
period, expressed as a percentage of the investment’s
initial cost. Alternatively it is also the cost of capital for a
project
• Time Value of Money (Money has time value because of
interest rate, risk, expected inflation)

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IMPORTANT TERMINOLOGIES

• Four Important Cash Flow Patterns


1) Single Sum or Lump Sum Cash Flow
2) Mixed Stream or Multiple Cash Flow
3) Annuities
4) Perpetuities

• Financial Mathematics requires work (practice).

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SINGLE SUM (LUMP SUM)
CASH FLOW PATTERNS

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I. Future values and Compound
interest
EX: You have $100 invested in a bank account.
Suppose banks are currently paying an interest rate of
6% per year on deposits.
How much money can you gain after 3 years?
Note: $100: initial investment (principal)
6%: interest rate

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I. Future values and Compound interest

1st year $100+$100x6% = $100 x (1+6%) = $ 106

2nd year $ 106 x (1+6%) = $100 x (1+6%)2 = $112.36

3rd year $112.36 x (1+6%) =$100 x (1+6%)3 = $119.10

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I. Future values and Compound interest

+ $6 + $6.36 + $6.74
r = 6% $106 $112.36 $119.10

0 1 2 3

Interest
After the 1st year = 6% x $100 = $6
After the 2nd year = ($100 + $6) x 6% = $6.36
After the 3rd year = ($100 + $6.36) x 6% = $6.74
I. Future values and Compound interest
r = 6% +$6 +$6 +$6

1 2 3

+ $6 + $6.36 + $6.74
r = 6% $106 $112.36 $119.10

0 1 2 3

Compound Interest Simple interest


After the 1st year = 6% x $100 = $6 = 6% x $100 = $6
After the 2nd year = ($100 + $6) x 6% = $6.36 = 6% x $100 = $6
After the 3rd year = ($100 +$6 + $6.36) x 6% = $6.74 = 6% x $100 = $6
Total interest after = $6 + $6.36 + $6.74 = = $6+ $6+ $6
3 years $19.10 = $18
I. Future values and Compound interest

+ $6 + $6.36 + $6.74
r = 6% $106 $112.36 $119.10

0 1 2 3

Saving

Present value
Why do the interest after each year higher
than the previous ones ? Future value

…because interests are calculated based on original


investment and its interest of previous years
I. Future values and Compound interest (cont’d)

Compound interest …earning interest on interest

Accumulated
Original interest
Interest investment over
= + periods
x

Simple interest … earning interest on original investment

Accumulated
Original interest
Interest investment over
= + periods
x
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I. Future values and Compound interest
“A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow”
Interest = interest rate x initial investment

Capital after the 1st year = initial investment x (1 + interest rate)

Capital after the 2nd year = capital after the 1st year x (1 + interest rate)
= initial investment x (1 + interest rate)2

Capital after the t year = initial investment x (1 + interest rate)t

Present value

Future value

Future value after the t year = Present value x (1 + interest rate)t


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I. Future values and Compound interest (cont’d)

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I. Future values and Compound interest (cont’d)
Picture: How an investment of $100 grows with compound interest at different interest rates

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The higher the rate of interest, the faster your savings will grow
I. Future values and Compound interest (cont’d)

Compound Interest
•Interest is received on accumulated interest from
previous periods as well as on the principal; that is,
interest generates further interest
•The sum (FVt) accumulated at rate r after t periods
is:

where r = interest rate per period


t = number of periods 18
I. Future values and Compound interest (cont’d)

Do you know ???

MANHATTAN Island

1626, bou
ght with 2 $
4

Peter Minuit

??? How much equivalent in 2021 value ?

The average standard of interest rate is 3.5%


outstanding
24(1+3.5%)395 = 19,127,112 USD successful deal!!!
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I. Future values and Compound interest (cont’d)

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I. Future values and Compound interest (cont’d)

Future Value - Example 1


Suppose that you deposit $1,000 in an account
today that pays interest of 5% pa, compounded
annually. What will be the balance in the account at
the end of four years?

Future Value - Example 2


Suppose you invest $10,000 in an account that
earns interest of 6% pa, compounded annually. How
much will that investment be worth in 5 years? 10
years?
Given: PV = 10,000, r = 0.06, t = 5, 10
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II. Present Values

Now!!!! At the
offered year-end!!
$100,000 offered
$100,000
•A dollar today is worth
more than 1 dollar tomorrow

Time value of money

Time
0 1 2 3 4 5 t
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II. Present Values (cont’d)

Original
Receiving
investment
value
(Present
(Future
Value) Int 1 Int 2 Int 3 Value)

+ + +
Time
0 1 2 3 t

FV  PV 1  r  t

FV
PV 
1  r t 23
II. Present Values (cont’d)

Discount factor

1
PV  FV
(1  r )t

Discount rate

Discount factor To measure the PV of $1 received


in year n

Future value Future value after t periods

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II. Present Values (cont’d)
• Discounted cash flow: method of
calculating present value by
discounting future cash flow
• Discount rate: interest rate used to
compute present values of future cash
flow

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II. Present Values (cont’d)

•How much do we need to invest now in order


to produce $106 at the end of the year with
interest rate of 6% ?

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II. Present Values (cont’d)

We have $100 invested for 1 year at 6% will grow to a future value


of 100 × 1.06 = $106. Let’s turn this around: How much do we
need to invest now in order to produce $106 at the end of the year?
In other words, what is the present value (PV) of the $106 payoff?

1
FV  100 * (1  6%)  $106 PV  $106
(1  6%)1
 $100

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II. Present Values (cont’d)
Discount factor

EXAMPLE

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II. Present Values (cont’d)
Discount factor
EXAMPLE

1
PV 1000
(1  1.01) 3

3-year discount factor

PV = €970.59

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II. Present Values (cont’d)

$3,000

$2,600 Strategy 1:
Save money in 1 year, interest rate 8%

Strategy 2:
•Which strategy should he select ?
Save money in 2 year, interest rate 8%

•Calculate PV of each strategy, and compare with his 30


suggestion
available fund If PV < available fund: select the strategy
II. Present Values (cont’d)

EX 2: you need $3,000 next year to buy a new


computer. The interest rate is 8% per year. How
much money must you set aside now in order to
pay for the purchase? If Save money in 1 year,
interest rate 8% or Save money in 2 year,
interest rate 8%
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II. Present Values (cont’d)
* Present value of $3,000 in a year

* Present value of $3,000 in 2 years

you need to invest $2,778 today to provide $3,000 in 1 year but


only $2,572 to provide the same $3,000 in 2 years 32
II. Present Values (cont’d)

The longer the time before you must make a payment, the less you need to invest 33
today
II. Present Values (cont’d)

Finding the value of free credit

$20,000
•Down payment: $8,000

•The 2nd pay out: $12,000 No free credit provided


Free credit provider
Discount $1,000

•Which company should you select ?

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II. Present Values (cont’d)
Toyota is offering free credit on a $20,000 car.
You pay $8,000 down and then the balance at
the end of 2 years.
CM does not offer free credit but will give you
$1,000 off the list price. If the interest rate is
10%
Which company is offering the better deal?

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II. Present Values (cont’d)
Toyota: The first payment $8,000, takes place today. The second
payment, $12,000, takes place at the end of 2 years. The total
present value of the payments:

GM: + no free credit provide


+ discount $1,000
PV = 20,000 – 1,000 = $19,000
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II. Present Values (cont’d)

Finding the value of free credit

$20,000
•Down payment: $8,000

•The 2nd pay out: $12,000 No free credit provided


Free credit provider
Discount $1,000
•Which company should you select ?

•PV = 20,000 – 1,000


= $19,000

Choose Toyota
for cheaper
purchasing 37
II. Present Values (cont’d)

Finding the interest rate

issue

•Repay $1,000
•How much is the interest rate ?
1 •…paid at the end of 25 years
PV  FV
(1  r )t •Price of IOU: $129.20
 r  ...

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II. Present Values (cont’d)
Finding the interest rate

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II. Present Values (cont’d)
Finding the number of period

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MIXED STREAM (MULTIPLE)
CASH FLOW PATTERNS

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III. Multiple Cash Flow

A single cash flow

FV  PV 1  r t
FV
Single CF2 PV 
Multiple CF
Single CF1
1  r t

Single CF3
Single CF4

Multiple CF is sum cash revenue and expenditures over a period of time

Now, we calculate the FV, PV of a Multiple Cash Flow… 42


III. Multiple Cash Flow
Future Value of multiple cash flow

It is sum of future value of each cash flow.


Each cash flow must be computed to the same
point in the future

FV  PV 1  r 
t

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Future Value of multiple cash flow

2 years later

•Year 0: deposit $1,200


•Year 1: deposit $1,400
•r = 8%

•How much will he spend


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on a laptop after 2 years ?
III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Future Value of multiple cash flow

Instead of putting aside one sum in the bank to


finance the purchase, you plan to save some
amount of money each year.
You put $1,200 in the bank now, and another
$1,400 in 1 year at an 8% rate of interest
How much will you spend on a computer in 2
years?
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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Future Value of multiple cash flow

Picture: Draw time line can help to calculate the future value of your savings

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Future Value of multiple cash flow

Suppose that the computer purchase can be put


off for an additional year and that you can make
a third deposit of $1,000 at the end of the second
year.
How much will be available to spend 3 years
from now?

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Future Value of multiple cash flow

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Present Value of multiple cash flow

It is sum of present value of each individual


cash flow
Each cash flow must be discounted to the
same point in time (normally to start date)
FV
PV 
1  r t

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Present Value of multiple cash flow

2
drawing 2 strategies
Installment plan

•Down payment: $8,000

$16,000 •Year 1: $4,000


1
•Year 2: $4,000
Pay $15,500 at once
(deducted $500)
r = 8%

•Which strategy should be chosen ?

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Present Value of multiple cash flow

Option 1: paying $15,500 for a used car now


Option 2: paying $8,000 down today and make
payments of $4,000 in each of the next 2 years.

Which is the better deal?

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Present Value of multiple cash flow (cont’d)

< $15,500

The strategy 2 of installment plan should be chosen 52


III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Present Value of multiple cash flow (cont’d)

Characteristics of PV of a stream of future cash flows

…is the amount that needs to be invested today to generate the stream of
future cash flows.

Total future cash flow: - $16,000

Available cash: $15,133.06

Don’t worry
Total of PV of future cash flow = 53
available cash = $15,133.06
III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Present Value of multiple cash flow (cont’d)

The installment plan’s present value is the amount that you would need
to invest now to cover the three payments.

Let’s check

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Present Value of multiple cash flow (cont’d)

…to prove this:

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)

Example: FV of Multiple Cash Flows


You deposit $1,000 now, $1,500 in year one, $2,000 in year
two and $2,500 in year three in an account paying 10%
interest per annum.
How much do you have in the account at the end of the third
year?

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)

Example: FV of Multiple Cash Flows


You deposit $1,000 now, $1,500 in year one, $2,000 in year
two and $2,500 in year three in an account paying 10%
interest per annum.
How much do you have in the account at the end of the third
year? $2,500
$1,000 $1,500 $2,000

0 1 2 3
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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Example: PV of Multiple Cash Flows
You deposit $1,500 in one year, $2,000 in two years
and $2,500 in three years in an account paying 10%
interest per annum.
What is the present value of these cash flows?

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
Example: PV of Multiple Cash Flows
You deposit $1,500 in one year, $2,000 in two years
and $2,500 in three years in an account paying 10%
interest per annum.
What is the present value of these cash flows?

$2,500
$1,000 $1,500 $2,000

0 1 2 3
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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)

What is the value at the end of Year 3 of the


following CF stream if the quoted interest rate is
10% pa, compounded semi-annually?

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)
III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)

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III. Multiple Cash Flow (cont’d)

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity
and Annuity

Iphone5
$x $x $x $x

0 1 2 3 4

Annuity

$x $x $x $x ….

0 1 2 3 4 ….
Perpetuity 65
PERPETUITIES
AND ANNUITY

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

What is an annuity and a perpetuity ?

Annuity

…sequence (level stream) of equal cash payment made at


equal period (regular intervals) with a finite maturity
Perpetuity

…sequence of equal cash payment that never ends

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Present value- perpetuity (cont’d)

Endow in finance

$100,000 per year, forever


Generous man r= 10%

How much is the amount that the man must set aside today ?

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Present value- perpetuity (cont’d)

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

The expected dividend next year is $0.3 and dividends are


expected to grow at 5% per annum forever. If the discount
rate is 10%, what is the value of this promised dividend
stream?
Given: C = $0.3, g = 5%, r = 10%,

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

With an 8 percent interest rate, calculate the present


value of the following streams of beginning-of-year
payments:
[a] $1,000 per year forever
[b] $500 per year forever, with the first payment two
years from today
[c] $2,420 per year forever, with the first payment
due three years from today

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Solution

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Solution

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Present value of annuities

An annuity is a cash flow stream of equal amounts,


equally spaced in time for a finite period of time

In other words, a cash flow pattern where the owner


receives a regular (FIXED) payment, at a regular
(FIXED) point in time for a known (FIXED) period of
time.

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

• ORDINARY ANNUITY (Annuity in arrears)


Pays a constant amount at the END of each period for a
finite number of periods.

• ANNUITY DUE (Annuity in advance) Pays a


constant amount at the BEGINNING of
Each period for a finite number of periods.

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

IMPORTANT
Always assume the ORDINARY.
If nothing is said about the timing of cash flows.
ALWAYS assume the cash flow occurs at the
END of the period

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

• The first C occurs at the end of the first time period

• The time period from the date of valuation to the date of


the first C is equal to the time period between each
subsequent C

• Also known as an annuity in arrears

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Present value of Ordinary annuity (cont’d)

Kangaroo Autos offer a payment scheme of $8,000 a year


at the end of each of the next 3 years, r = 10%.

What is present value of this installment plan?

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Present value of Ordinary annuity (cont’d)

Kangaroo Autos offer a payment scheme of $8,000 a year at the end


of each of the next 3 years, r = 10%

$4,000 $4,000 $4,000

0 1 2 3

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Present value of Ordinary annuity Present Value


Ordinary Annuity Formula

1 1 
PV  C   t  Annuity factor
 r r (1  r ) 
1  (1  r )t 
 PV  C   83
 r 
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Present value of Ordinary annuity (cont’d)

Annuity in Arrears (Ordinary Annuity)

r% $C $C $C $C

0 1 2 3 n

1 1 
PV  C   t 
 r r (1  r )  Annuity factor

1  (1  r ) t 
 PV  C  
 r 
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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Present value of Ordinary annuity (cont’d) Present Value
Ordinary Annuity Formula

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Present value of annuity due (cont’d)

Kangaroo Autos offer a payment scheme of $8,000 a year


at the beginning of each of the next 3 years, r = 10%.

What is present value of this installment plan?

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Present value of annuity due (cont’d)

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity (cont’d)

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Present value of Annuity Due (cont’d)


Annuity in Advance (Annuity Due)

$C r% $C $C $C $C

0 1 2 3 n

1 1 
PV  C   t 
(1  r )
 r r (1  r )  Annuity factor
1  (1  r ) t 
 PV  C   (1  r )
 r 
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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

1 1  1 1 
PV  C   PV  C   t 
(1  r )
t 
 r r (1  r )  r r (1  r ) 

1  (1  r ) t  1  (1  r ) t 
 PV  C   (1  r )
 PV  C    r 
 r 
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PV of Ordinary Annuity PV of Annuity Due
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Present value of annuity (cont’d)

•Receive equally installments each


year: $10.35 mio.
•Total year: 30.
•Interest rate: 3.2%

Lottery winner of $310.5 mio

$10.35 $10.35 … $10.35

0 1 2 … 30

Does he accept the proposal ? Why ?


It is a fair trade ?
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What is a solution ?
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Suppose: A man buy Powerball lottery ticket and
win $310.5 million. That sum is to be paid in 30
equal annual installments of $10.35 million each.
If the first payment occurred at the end of 1 year,
interest rate of 3.2%
1. What was the present value of the prize?
2. Does he accept the proposal of receive payment
of $10.35 million each year in 30 years? Why?
3. Is it fair trade?
4. What is solution? 92
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Q1:

PV = $10.35 x 19.1033 = $197.7 million

93
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

* Q2:
He will not accept this proposal because
PV= $197.7 million < $310.5 (value of the prize)
* Q3: It is not fair
* Q4: He should receive $197.7 million up front

94
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Future value of an Annuity

r= 8%
$13,000

$3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000

0 1 2 3 4

Can you buy this red car at the end of year 4 ?

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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Calculating the future value of an ordinary annuity of $3,000 a year for 4 year (interest rate =8%)
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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity (cont’d)

Future value of an annuity


Future value of an ordinary annuity

. FV of an ordinary annuities = PV of an ordinary annuity x (1+r)t

1 1  t
FV of an ordinary annuities = C 
 r r (1  r ) t  x (1  r )
 

 (1  r )t  1
FV of an ordinary annuities = C  
 r 

Future value of an annuity due


1 1  t
C 
FV of an annuity due =  r r (1  r ) t  (1  r ) x (1  r )
 
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IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity (cont’d)

Future value of an annuity (cont’d)

98
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity (cont’d)

99
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Future value of an annuity (cont’d)


…in 50 more years

$500,000
r= 10%

…will be retired

How much could she save each year from this year ?

100
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)
Future value of an annuity (cont’d)

C = FV/annuity factor C = $500,000/1163.908 = $429,58

101
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity
(cont’d)

Annuities due  (1  r )t  1
FV of an annuities due = C   (1  r )
 r 

…in 50 more years

$500,000
r= 10%

…will be retired
If she save the money at the beginning of each year, how much should she deposit ?

Compare outcome with the previous FV annuity,


102
C = ???
any conclusion about this?
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and Annuity (cont’d)

Future value of an annuity (cont’d)

C = FV/annuity factor C = $500,000/1046.517 = $477.77

103
IV. Level Cash flows: Perpetuity and
Annuity (cont’d)

104
V. EFFECTIVE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE
Effective annual interest rate

Interest rate that is annualized using compound interest.

Borrow $100
Interest 1% per month

Putting off the


payment up to 1 year Total payment after 1 year:
100(1+1%)12= $112.68

105
V. EFFECTIVE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE
(cont’d)

0 1

$100 $112.68

How much is the equivalent interest rate? •12.68%

Effective annual interest rate

106
V. EFFECTIVE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE
Nominal and effective annual interest rate

FV= 100(1+12%/12)12 FV=100(1+12.68%)1x1


= $112.68 = $112.68

Nominal interest rate Effective annual interest rate

1 + effective annual interest rate = (1 + i/n)n

i: interest rate per compounding period

n: number of compounding periods


107
V. EFFECTIVE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE
(cont’d)

Method to convert to effective annual interest rate from an annual


percentage rates (APRs)

•APRs: annualized by multiplying the rate per period by the number of period in a year.

Steps to convert to effective annual interest rate

1 Take the quoted APR divided by the number of compounded


period in a year

•Monthly interest: APR / 12


•Quarterly interest: APR / 4
•Semi-annually interest: APR / 2
108
V. EFFECTIVE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE
(cont’d)

Steps to convert to effective annual interest rate (cont’d)

2 Convert to effective annual interest rate

1 + effective annual interest rate = (1 + monthly rate)12

1 + effective annual interest rate = (1 + quarterly rate)4

1 + effective annual interest rate = (1 + semi-annually rate)2

109
V. EFFECTIVE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE
(cont’d)

Why do we use the effective annual interest rate ?

•To measure the actual income of the depositors or expense of the borrowers

LAST SELF TEST


A car loan requiring quarterly payments carries an annual
percentage rates (APRs)
ARP of 8 percent.

What is the effective annual rate of interest ?

110
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY

Investment return Inflation


6% 10%

…value of money is eroded 111


VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY
Real versus Nominal Cash flow

Inflation: Rate at which prices as a whole are increasing

What can be used for measuring the inflation rate ?

…CPI (Consumer price index) used for measuring the inflation rate.

112
CPI measures the number of dollars needed to buy a specified basket of goods and service
that is supposed to represent the typical family’s purchases
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY
Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

Example:
In 2010, price of one shirt: $1
In 2020, price of one shirt: $2
If a dollar bought one shirt, the same dollar this
year buys only a half of one shirt
>> The increase in the price means that
purchasing power of money is eroded
113
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY
Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

114
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY

Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

What is the nominal dollar ?

…refer to the actual number of dollars

What is the real dollar ?

…refer to the amount of purchasing power

115
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY
Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

buy

In 1990

pr
ov
id
e
Pay monthly lo
an Year CPI
$800 for 30 years
1990 133.8

2011 190.3

??? What is the real monthly payment of 2011 compared with real 1990 dollar ? 116
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY
Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

Suppose you took out a 30-year house


mortgage in 1990. The monthly payment
was $800. It was still $800 in 2011
What’s the monthly payment for 2011 expressed in
real 1990 dollars?
What do you think the real amount paid in 2011
with that in 1990 ?
117
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

??? What is the real monthly payment of 2011 compared with real 1990 dollar ?

CPI increased (1990/2011): …………

Real payment of 2011 compared with 1990:……

What do you think the real amount paid in 2011 with that in 1990 ?

118
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)
Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

CPI increased by a factor of 190.3/133.8 = 1.42 over


those years
Real monthly payment of 2011 compared with
real 1990 dollar Year CPI

$800/1.42 = $562.48 1990 133.8

2011 190.3

The real burden of paying the mortgage was much


less in 2011 than in 1990.
119
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)
Real versus Nominal Cash flow (cont’d)

120
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)
Inflation and interest rate
investment (1  nominal interest rate)
Real FV of investment 
1  inflation rate

1  nominal interest rate


1  Real interest rate 
1  inflation rate

What is the nominal interest rate ?

…rate at which money invested growths

…interest rate board of commercial banks

What is the real interest rate ?

…rate at which purchasing power of an investment increases

121
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF
MONEY (cont’d)
• A nominal interest rate refers to the interest
rate before taking inflation into account
• Real interest rate is an interest rate that has
been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation
to reflect the real cost of funds to borrowers and
the real yield to the lender or to an investor

122
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Inflation and interest rate (cont’d)

…invest to earn interest rate: 6%

…simultaneously, reduce the income


with inflation rate of 2%
…how much is the real interest rate ?

123
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Inflation and interest rate (cont’d)

Attention!!!

In reality, if nominal interest rate and inflation rate are small, the real interest rate will be…

Real interest rate = nominal interest rate – inflation rate

124
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Valuing real cash payments

Suppose that the nominal interest rate is 10%. How much do you need to
invest now to produce $100 in a year’s time
…compare the nominal and real values of investment under the inflation rate of 7% and
nominal interest rate of 10%

Nominal Real

Interest rate 10% 2.8%

FV (after 1 year) $100 $93.46

PV $90.91 $90.91

Nominal PV and Real PV are equal to each other 125


VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Valuing real cash payments

Nominal Real

Interest rate 10% =1.10/1.07-1


=2.8%
FV (after 1 year) $100 = $100/1.07
= $93.46
PV

Real future payment after 1 year compared with now

126
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Valuing real cash payments (cont’d)

Note
Current dollar cash flows must be discounted by the nominal
interest rate; real cash flows must be discounted by the real
interest rate

127
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Valuing real cash payments (cont’d)

Nominal Real
Interest rate 8% =1.08/1.05-1
=2.857%

FV (after 1 year) $5000 = $5000/1.05


= $4,761.9

PV

Real future payment after 1 year compared with now

128
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Valuing real cash payments (cont’d)

His total assets: $79 bio.

Spend $5.7 bio per year, in 30 years


•Interest rate = 6%
•Inflation rate = 3%

I would like to
ensure the same
power of
purchasing of
2045 as in 2015

129
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)

Valuing real cash payments (cont’d)

I would like to
ensure the same
power of
purchasing of
2042 as in 2012

Solution

Spend less in 2012 and then increase expenditure in line with inflation

•Real interest rate: …………….


•Annual spending in 2012:………………….
130
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)
Valuing real cash payments (cont’d)

An interest rate of 6% Bill Gates could, if he wished, turn his $79 billion
wealth into a 30-year annuity of $5.7 billion per year of luxury and
excitement (L&E). Unfortunately, L&E expenses inflate just like gasoline
and groceries. Thus Mr. Gates would find the purchasing power of that $5.7
billion steadily declining.
If he wants the same luxuries in 2045 as in 2015, he’ll have to spend less in
2015 and then increase expenditures in line with inflation.
How much should he spend in 2015? Assume the long-run inflation rate is
3%.

131
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
(cont’d)
Valuing real cash payments (cont’d)
Calculate real interest rate

PV = annual spending x 30-year annuity factor


$ 79,000,000,000 (PV) = annual spending x 30-year annuity factor at 2.9%
$ 79,000,000,000 (PV) = annual spending x19.8562
Annual spending =3,979,000,000

132
VI. INFLATION AND THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY (cont’d)

133
Thank you for your attention !

134

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