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• No dividends
• The one-period interest rate, r, is constant over the life of the option (r% per period)
• This means that when valuing a derivative we can make assumption that investors are risk-
neutral which means that they do not increase the expected return they require, from an investment, to
compensate for increased risk.
• Binomial trees illustrate the general result that to value a derivative we can assume that the
expected return on the underlying asset is the risk-free rate and discount at the risk-free rate
S0u
p Cu
S0
C 1–p S0d
Cd
e rT d
p
• C = [ pCu + (1 – p)Cd ]e–rT where ud
• Expected return on the stock in a risk neutral world must be the risk free rate of 12%
• Thus p would satisfy the condition : 22p +18 (1-p) = 20e0.12*(3/12) so p= 0.65
• At the end of 3 months, call option has 0.6523 probability of being worth 1 and 0.3477 (1-0.6523)
probability of being worth zero.
• Expected Value of call at time T = 0.65*1 + 0.35*0 = 0.65
• In risk neutral world, this would be discounted at risk free rate to give the value of the option is = 0.6523e–
0.12*0.25
= Rs. 0.633
Valuing options – Binomial tree approach
• Simplified formulas:
• Probability of up move = (rf – low)/(hi-low)
• Where rf = amount due to risk free on Re 1
• high = up side on fluctuation on Re 1
• low = down side on fluctuation on Re 1
• How to find upside and downside?
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Valuing options – Binomial tree approach
• Assume that
• Absolute values of upside and downside are the same
• Upside / downside is equal to the observed volatility
• For example,
• observed volatility in Nifty is 10.76% p.a.
• Balance period till expiry : 17 days
• Volatility for the balance period = 10.76% * sqrt(17/365) = 2.32%
• Upside on current market price of Rs 100 : Rs 102.32
• Downside on current market price of Rs 100 : Rs 97.68
• If risk free rate is 6% p.a. , risk free price after 17 days
= 100 + 100 * (6%*17/365) = 100.28
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Steps for solving under Binomial Method
• State the given data – Current price of the underlying; % of up-move; % of down-
move; Strike price; Maturity period; Risk-free rate
• Find out the range of the underlying prices from the current levels at the end of the
given period
• Using the expected price movements of the underlying, find out the payoffs for the
Option by comparing with the Strike price
• Find out the Probability of Up-move (use the formula in Slide 8)
• Find out the Probability of Down-move (1 – prob. of up move)
• Find out Expected Payoffs of the option (probability * option payoff)
• Discount the expected payoffs using the risk-free rate
• You get the Price / Premium of that specific Option contract
Q1.
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Example 6
• Step 1 : Compute price using risk free rate of 5% p.a.
• Current market price = Rs 100
• Tenor = 20 days = 20/365 year
• Risk free price (Rf) = 100 * ( 1 + 5% * 20/365)
• = 100.274
3 digits after decimal point are shown for this example only for the illustrative purposes.
It is not necessary to show more than two digits
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Example 6
• Step 2 : Calculate hi and low prices using the given
volatility rate of 12% p.a.
hi price =
current market price *
(1+ volatility rate p.a. * sqrt( number of days to
expiry / 365))
= 100 * ( 1 + 12% * sqrt ( 20/365))
= 102.809
low price =
current market price *
(1- volatility rate p.a. * sqrt( number of days to
expiry / 365))
= 100 * ( 1 - 12% * sqrt ( 20/365))
= 97.191
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Example 6
• Step 3 : Calculate probability of up move
• p = ( Rf – low) / ( hi – low)
• = (100.274 - 97.191)/(102.809 - 97.191)
• = 0.55
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Example 6
• Step 4 : Calculate expected value of call option price today
• call option payoff on hi price = 102.809 - 100 = 2.809
• Probability : 0.55
• call option payoff on low price = 0, as low price of 97.191 is below the strike
of 100
• Probability : 0.45
• Expected payoff on the call option at expiry
• 0.55 * 2.809 + 0.45 * 0 = 1.545
• Present value of the expected payoff is the expected price of call option =
1.545 / ( 1 + .05 * 20/365) = 1.541
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Example 6
• Step 5 : Calculate expected value of put option price today
• put option payoff on hi price = 0, price of 102.809 is above the strike of 100
• Probability : 0.55
• put option payoff on low price = 100 – 97.191 = 2.809
• Probability : 0.45
• Expected payoff on the call option at expiry
• 0.55 * 0 + 0.45 * 2.809 = 1.264
• Present value of the expected payoff is the expected price of call option =
1.264 / ( 1 + .05 * 20/365) = 1.261
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