• 1.

• 2. Introduction: Prediction and Projections, and Pharma

• 3. Segmentation
• 4. Demand Study
• 5. Profitability Analysis
• 6. 3rd Party: Regional Analysis & Vaccine Type
• 7. Risks and Logistics
• 8. Overall Distribution
Introduction Industry Outlook

• Global Vaccines market accounted for $38.36 billion in

2018 and is expected to reach $81.27 billion by 2027
growing at a CAGR of 8.7% during the forecast period.
38.5 • This growth has been due to consistent focus of
governments across the globe on mass vaccination. Also
the successful elimination due of many diseases by
vaccination has further increased confidence.
• Also, with increasing human animal interaction due to
environmental degradation risk of more pandemics has
increased. Therefore this industry plays a big role in
future of humanity.
• Japan will hold the maximum share by 2025 in the
vaccine market
Reasons for growth

CAGR of
High prevalence Increasing $38.36 b in 2018 8.75 $81.27 b in 2027
Rising focus of
of Infectious company Govt Support
immunization
diseases initiates for R&D
Introduction Prevailing and Predicted Growth of Covid-19 Cases

Assumptions for projection

Current Projection: Gradual easing of Social
distancing mandates continues. Restrictions re-
imposed if deaths 8/mil
Mandates Easing: Mandates never imposed
Universal Mask: 95% use mask, Gradual easing
of Social distancing mandates continues

Global daily Covid19

death to now the 5th
largest
reach 30k reason for
by Dec death

73% of India has

covid death lowest
Selection Criteria for countries: above mortality
above age rate per
USA: host country for vaccine development 60 cases
Brazil: free public healthcare system (SUS)
India: fasted growing covid-19 cases in world
 USA
Demand Forecasting
Gilead Sciences

Sanofi Pharmaceuticals U.S.A

BioNtech  USA with major producers such as Sanofi, Gilead Sciences, Biotech has always had a very
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 stable vaccine industry and now with the introduction of Cure & Pharma, the whole
2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 industry looks very robust to handle a majority of the vaccine requirement for US
Population.
 After a thorough analysis, we have come to the understanding that US plans to vaccinate
Brazil its population in staged phases starting early 2021 and the demand numbers for all major
1.4 producers have been populated with a holistic mix of industry trends and company
1.2
1 positions.
0.8
0.6
0.4
Brazil
0.2
0  Brazil on the other hand presents a very contrasting image as compared to US as not a lot
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
of local manufacturers have shown great signs of producing vaccines at mass level , even
Cure & Pharma Serum and Bharat Biotech though firms like Bio Manguinhos and a few other players have taken dedicated efforts ,
AstraZenca Gilead Sciences
Bio Manguinhos All other local Players
from our analysis we expect the global producers to take the major mantle of vaccinating
India brazil population
6 India
5
4  India with its huge population base serves as one of the biggest markets for all the major
3 producers around the globe. Also, India with firms such as Bharat Biotech and Serum India
2
accounting for a 60% of the total vaccine production capacity of the world, these firms are
1
0 expected to play a major role in the process.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  From 2023 onwards, we believe that the vaccine availability with global firms such as Cure
Cure & Pharma Serum &Pharma will be more as the other major markets would have been covered to a large
Bharat Biotech AstraZenca extent.
Gilead Sciences All local Players (Mainly BioNtech)
 Revenue and Pricing Analysis ( Specific focus on
Cure& Pharma)
USA
7
5 U.S.A
3
1 • In US market , after a thorough analysis of major trends and cost
0 5 10 15 20 25
understanding , we believe the initial price for the vaccine would be close to
Revenue Pricing ($) Demand
the values we have taken in our analysis. Also since there are a lot of
Brazil producers available in the US market , so we expect Cure& Pharma to start
7 picking up with the sales eventually.
6
5
4
3
Brazil
2 • Brazil with its low level of production capacity can prove to be a great market
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 for Cure & Pharma
Revenue Pricing ($) Demand
India
India
• The main factor for Cure-Pharma to succeed in India would be the way they
40
35 handle their pricing strategy, India with its vast population base presents a
30
25 unique opportunity to leverage such a huge market.
20
15
10
• Also , we expect Cure & Pharma to increase the price once the priority
5 segments have been catered to and in turn this will provide the firm that
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 additional revenue cover to ramp up their production capacity
Cure & Pharma Pricing Revenue
Strategy Vaccination Priority Order Distribution:
India
Pregnant Women
Above Poverty Below Poverty
Distribution People with comorbidities Line (70%) Line (30%)
• Tie up with local
manufacturers of Old People
selected countries To be provided
Buy privately
by GOI
• Distribute the vaccine Front Line workers
in two parts: One to (Initially) Cost
the local government of Vaccine: $3 - Cost free
Rest
and the other to $4
Private players
• Sell License globally to Distribution: USA
manufacture • >91% population insured
• Will follow different • Get Vaccination Insured and procured privately
pattern for USA and • Cost for insured people: $38 - $40
India • For rest: Vaccinate for free by the govt
 BRAZIL
INDIA
Types of Vaccines
• Johnson & • Serum Inst • Bio –
Johnson • Bharat Bio Magnuinhos
• Pfizer • Zydus • Bhutan Inst Live-
Inactivated
attenuated
Capacity Capacity Capacity
Subunit,
• 1 billion • 1.7 billion • 500 million Toxoid
recombinant

Other Live attenuated Vaccines in

use worldwide
Assumptions:
The study assumes use of Live-attenuated vaccine
Vaccine Availability: January 2021
Manufacturing capacity of external drug producers is not
exhausted by COVID-19 vaccine production alone
Each country prioritizes its citizens for vaccination
 Third Party Analysis
Logistics
May fail on
a larger We will have to use the existing supply chain
audience
network of vaccines.
Storage: District/zonal cold reserve
Highly
Highly
Regulated
Capital Logistic Challenges:
intensive States infrastructure is not equally developed
Risk
Associated 25% wastage in cold reserves
High cost of maintenance

Logistic Solutions:
Raw Requires Timely inventory usage which will
material skilled 1. Save infrastructure cost
Safety labors
2. Avoid wastage
3. Quick dispensing of vaccines to people
We assume that vaccine manufacturing will start Digital inventory maintenance
much before all the approvals are obtained. Hence,
the associated high financial risk.
Demographic Study and other situational factors

Demographic Analysis (India):

1. Population Density The Population of age >55 is extremely susceptible to Covid19
2. Urban Rural divide deaths
3. Immunity Level of Country Population of Brazil and USA are similarly studied and have a
4. Health of the country in terms of considerable percent of its population in this age bracket
Malnutrition, Obesity, Comorbidities,
Healthcare Infrastructure Income:
India: 30% population below poverty line
Indian Population Distribution Lack of hygiene and malnutrition makes them susceptible to
600 diseases
500 535
Brazil: Has huge income inequality. Also, large percentage of
populations live in favelas (slum like dwellings). Favelas host
400
improper sanitation and lack of cleanliness.
300 350
276259
200
186164
231 Healthcare Infrastructure:
100 123108 99
India: Healthcare spend accounts for less than 2% of GDP. Not very
83
0 49 49 39 44 robust. Extremely low doctor : patient ratio.
0-14 15-24 25-54 55-64 65+
Brazil: SUS is an efficient system that has the potential to cater to
Men Female Total the entire population.
 Executive Summary

Problem Facts and Findings

• The vaccine industry is expected to grow at CAGR 8.7 over the next
The problem given to us was to solicit consulting services for few years
Cure&Pharma to help the company launch their new vaccine • The predicted covid cases till the end of the year and will decrease
program. eventually by the end of the first quarter next year.
Following were some of the major parameters which were needed • USA plans to start with the vaccination process by the first quarter
to be addressed : of 2021 and even though there are a lot of major producers
available in US , we expect US will require support from other
• Industry Outlook manufacturers as well
• Market Analysis • India is one of the biggest for covid vaccines because of its large
population base and a steady growth in the number of cases
• Manufacturing and Distribution partner analysis
• We intend to use the live attenuated virus vaccine

Conclusions
• Timely inventory management is considered as the solution majorly
for all logistic problems.
• The priority order for vaccination program is as follows
• As per our analysis , we expect the vaccination drive to continue till early 2025 in a
1. Pregnant Women
majority of the countries.
2. People with Co-morbidities
• In US market , after a thorough analysis of major trends and cost understanding , we 3. Old Population
believe the initial price for the vaccine would be close to the values we have taken in our 4. Frontline workers
analysis. Also since there are a lot of producers available in the US market , we expect
Cure& Pharma to start at a number similar to the other industry leaders.