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Fiscal Policy: Coping With Inflation and Unemployment
Fiscal Policy: Coping With Inflation and Unemployment
08/29/22
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
1
What is a Fiscal Policy?
Government spending
and taxation to achieve
full employment
without inflation
7
Breakdown of the US Population
and the Labor Force
Persons under 16
Persons in the armed forces
Persons institutionalized
Total Population
Not in Labor Force
Civilian
Noninstitutional
Employed
Population
Unemployed
Who measures
unemployment?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics
surveys about 60,000
households each month
14
What about people
who are over-qualified
for their jobs?
They are still considered
fully employed
16
Is the unemployment
Yes! rate valid?
As long as we are
consistent, we can get
an accurate comparison
from one time period to
the next
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
17
Can the unemployment
rate increase without
anyone losing a job?
If more people enter the work
force than the number of
new jobs generated, the
unemployment rate increases
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
18
What are different types
of unemployment?
• Frictional
• Structural
• Cyclical
• Seasonal
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
19
What is frictional
unemployment?
Unemployment due to
normal turnover of the
labor force, new entrants
to the labor force, re-
entrants, job leavers 20
What is structural
unemployment?
Unemployment due to
structural changes such
as new technologies
leading to declines in
demand for some jobs 21
What is cyclical
unemployment?
Unemployment due to a
recession, or downturn in
the economy
22
What is the natural rate
of unemployment?
The sum of frictional and
structural unemployment
23
What is considered
Full Employment?
An employment level at
which the actual rate
of unemployment is
equal to the natural
rate of unemployment
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
24
What is considered to be
the natural rate of
unemployment?
The natural rate varies, most
estimates are from 4-6%
27
What was the
unemployment rate
during the worst of the
Great Depression?
In 1933, 25% of the labor
force was unemployed
29
Are there any benefits of
unemployment?
Allocative benefits
Disciplinary benefits
30
What is Inflation?
The general upward
movement in the
average level of prices
40
Who wins and who loses
from inflation?
Debtors win, creditors lose
Real interest rate =
Nominal rate -expected
inflation
41
More winners and losers
of inflation
• Those on fixed incomes lose
• Savers often lose
• Government sometimes wins
• Menu costs of inflation
• Inflation psychology develops
• Inflation and uncertainty 42
What is a
Recessionary Gap?
The amount by which aggregate
expenditure falls short of a full
employment equilibrium, thus
giving high unemployment-
assume little inflation however
C2+I2+G2+(x-m)2
C1+I1+G1+(x-m)1
C2+I2+G2+(x-m)2
C1+I1+G1+(x-m)1
C2+I2+G2+(x-m)2
C1+I1+G1+(x-m)1
full employment
New equilibrium
45o
Yf Y1 GDP (income)
48
48
Fiscal policy to help
solve an inflationary gap
• Lower government spending
• Raise taxes
• Attempting to contract or slow
down the economy
49
Aggregate Expenditure
The Inflationary Gap
C2+I2+G2+(x-m)2
C1+I1+G1+(x-m)1
full employment
New equilibrium
45o
Yf Y1 GDP (income)
50
50
What is the formula for
the tax multiplier?
-MPC/MPS
51
Recall the income
(expenditure) multiplier
of the previous chapter,
multiplier = 1/MPS, say
government spending
increases by 100 billion
52
$100 billion
$90 MPC = 9/10
$81 MPS = 1/10
$74
...
$1,000
53
5
3
Now suppose instead of
raising G by 100, we cut
taxes by 100--will
people spend all of the
100 billion?
54
Answer is No, some will
be saved--assume again
MPC=.9, MPS=.1, thus
90% of tax cut is spent
or 90 billion initial
change in spending
55
$100 billion
$90 MPC = 9/10
$81 MPS = 1/10
$74
...
1,000 900
56
5
6
Thus since -100 = tax cut, and GDP grew by 900,
we have a tax multiplier of -9
57
Practice with the tax
multiplier
Tax cut = 5 billion, MPC = .75,
what is the maximum ΔGDP?
Tax increase = 10 billion, MPS = .4,
what is the maximum ΔGDP?
Tax cut of 8 billion, MPC = 2/3,
what is the maximum ΔGDP?
58
Answers:
1. 15 billion
2. -15 billion
3. 16 billion
59
Why are Fiscal Policies
to stem a Recessionary
Gap not problem free?
• Spending becomes permanent
• Ignores the self-correcting
nature of the economy
• It can be very expensive
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
60
Why are Fiscal Policies
to stem an Inflationary
Gap not problem free?
To cut government
spending or raise
taxes can be
politically unpopular
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
61
Other problems with fiscal policy
Time lags: Can we time fiscal policy
correctly?
1. Recognition lag, time between a
change in the economy and our
realizing it
2. Administrative lag, time for congress
to act, pass laws, etc.
3. Impact lag, time for policy to
actually have its effect, multipliers to
work, etc. 62
Time lags could cause 2
problems
1. Miss the boat, problem
over before policy gets
going
2. Destabilize, rather than
stabilize the economy
63
Another possible problem with
fiscal policy, crowding out
Say Raise G to stimulate economy,
borrow the money by selling bonds,
could raise interest rates, lead to less
investment and consumption--thus the
higher G spending “crowds out”
private sector spending.
64
Keynesians see little crowding
out in recessionary times
Could in fact be that increased G
spending, if output begins
expanding, might raise optimism
and increase investment and
consumption rather than crowd it
out.
65
For information on
government spending:
http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs
/budget/index.html
http://www.cato.org
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov
http://www.concordcoalition.org
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
66
What is the Balanced
Budget Multiplier?
When the government increases
spending and taxes by equal
amount, what will be the
combined effect on output, taking
both multipliers into account?
70
•Who loses from Inflation?
•Who gains from Inflation?
•What is a Recessionary Gap?
•What is an Inflationary Gap?
•What is a Fiscal Policy?
•What is a Balanced Budget?
•What is the Balanced Budget Multiplier?
71