The mechanics of cbet sizing

Starting soon
Outline
General heuristics

The wet and dry bet sizing parabola

Factors that influence sizing

Vulnerable nut theorem

Geometric toy game

Felting ranges and SPR

How the middle of your range influences sizing

Experiments
What dictates bet sizing?
Nut advantage? Vote now in the poll!

Range advantage?

Polarity?

Fold equity?

Stack to pot ratio?

Draw equity?
Very basic heuristics

Nut advantage dictates sizing

Range advantage dictates frequency

(Generally, not always)

Very basic flop cbet heuristics
Level 0: Rangebetting every flop for a small size

Level 1: Dry board = small flop cbet, wet board = big flop cbet

Level 2: Dry board = small flop cbet, wet board = big flop cbet, very wet board = small
bet

Level 3+: More advanced heuristics based on texture, SPR, position

All of that is fine, but none of it actually explains why certain bet sizes are preferred.
The wetness parabola

This basic bet-sizing heuristic has

some truth to it, but is obviously
oversimplified.

Why does bet sizing decrease when

a board becomes too “wet”?

(Poll)
Factors that influence sizing
Bet bigger
● Villain has few nutted hands that can
make your value range indifferent
● Villain has many hands with reasonable
equity against the top of your range
● The value of fold equity is high
● You have sufficient nutted hands in your
range
● You have fewer middling hands to
protect
Bet smaller
● Villain has many nutted hands that can
make your value range indifferent
● Villain has few hands with reasonable
equity against the top of your range
● The value of fold equity is low
● You have insufficient nutted hands in
your range
● You have more middling hands to protect
Bet sizing mechanics

Villain’s nutted hands prevent you from overbetting them to death. This is why nut advantage is a much stronger indicator of bet
sizing than range advantage.

Dry boards tend to have low incentive to bet big due to low value of fold equity and lack of draws against the top of your range.

Wet boards tend of have higher incentive to bet large due to higher value of fold equity, and more draws that have equity against
the top of your range.

Very wet boards tend to have a wide variety of nutted hands in both ranges, which prevents you from overextending. The top of
both ranges gets dragged down towards the middle.

The middle of your range drags down your nutted hands as it needs to be protected. The more middling hands you have, the
more protection is required.
Overbet Indicator - Vulnerable nut theorem
One of the most prominent indicators for overbets are situations where:

A large portion of your range is currently ahead of most of villain’s range, but your equity
with these hands is much lower due to draws.

This discrepancy between being ahead now, and not so much later, creates an incentive to
play very aggressively!

This doesn’t really have a name, so let’s just call it the “vulnerable nut theorem”.
 GTO Wizard Link

Vulnerable nut theorem examples - BTN vs BB

 GTO Wizard Link

Vulnerable nut theorem examples

AJ+ is currently ahead of ~97% of BB’s range, yet it only has 82% equity

This asymmetry means two things

1) BTN’s strong top pair has a lot of incentive to play aggressively

2) BB doesn’t have enough nutted hands to prevent us from overbetting
 GTO Wizard Link

Vulnerable nut theorem - SB vs BB srp

Vulnerable nut theorem - SB vs BB srp

99 is ahead of 98% of BB’s range, yet it only has 77% equity

This discrepancy incentivises a massive overbet

 GTO Wizard Link

Vulnerable nut theorem - SB vs BTN 3BP

Vulnerable nut theorem - SB vs BB srp

AJo is ahead of 90% of BTN’s range, but it only has 63% equity

AA is ahead of 93% of BTN’s range, but it only has 69% equity

Note that the percentage of range you need to be ahead is related to SPR.
Geometric bet size

To bet “geometrically” means to bet an equal fraction of the pot on each street to get all
the chips in by the river.

This is the ideal bet size when one player is “perfectly polarized”.

The geometric bet size maximizes villain’s calling range.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CXlr-79P5tJ/
Stack depth and felting ranges

Felting range = % of range that can play for stacks

Deeper stacks = tighter felting ranges

Shorter stacks = wider felting ranges

We can get a rough approximation of felting ranges with simple MDF (Minimum defense
frequency) calculations.
 Spreadsheet

Stack depth and felting ranges

Pot Stack SPR Stackoff Range

SRP 200bb 5.50 197.50 35.9 3-6%
SRP UTG 4.50 98.00 21.8 4-9%
SRP BTN 5.50 97.50 17.7 5-10%
SRP BvB 6.00 97.00 16.2 6-11%
3bp small 15.50 92.50 6.0 14-21%
3bp medium 20.50 90.00 4.4 18-25%
3bp large 27.50 87.00 3.2 24-31%
4bp small 37.00 82.00 2.2 31-38%
4bp medium 45.00 78.00 1.7 36-43%
4bp large 55.00 73.00 1.3 44-50%
 GTO Wizard link

Stack depth and felting ranges - Example

Quiz! How wide to stack

off?
 GTO Wizard link

Stack depth and felting ranges - Example

Top 10% of BB’s range BTN vs top of BB’s range
Experiment

What happens if we remove all the straights from BB’s range?

 GTO Wizard link

BTN vs BB SRP - KQ9r experiment

Equity against top 10% of BB’s range
Equity against top 10% of BB’s range After JT is removed
BTN vs BB SRP - KQ9r experiment

What happens if we
remove all the straights
from BB’s range?

Our sizing and frequency

increases drastically
BTN vs BB SRP - KQ9r experiment

Removing JT from BB’s range meant we had significantly more hands which could play for stacks
in our range.

This opens up larger bet sizing options, allowing BTN to push their equity.

What happens 200bb deep?

GTO Wizard link - 200bb

BTN vs BB SRP - KQ9r

Nutted hands are the only defense against overbets. Removing too many nutted hands gives the
opponent the option to overbet and apply a lot of pressure, (although that won’t always be their
best option).

As stacks get deeper, the nut advantage becomes more important.

How the middle of your range influences sizing

CO vs SB 4BP. Flop is AT9tt. Why is SB donking?

How the middle of your range influences sizing

CO vs SB 4BP. Flop is AT9tt. Why is SB donking?

GTO Wizard link

How the middle of your range influences sizing
SB is the preflop defender, yet they
donk half their range.

They either have a very strong hand, or

a worthless hand, and almost nothing
in between.

No middling hands = not worth

defending your checking range
Are paired boards “dry”?

What exactly is a “dry” or “wet” board?

Is a flop like AA6r dry? What does that mean exactly?

 GTO Wizard Link

BTN vs BB AA6r

Why is a small bet preferred?

● Dry board?
● Too many nutted hands in BB
range?
● Fold equity?
● BB range inelasticity?
● BB won’t be able to defend wide
enough?
Experiments:

1. What happens if we remove trips+ from both ranges?

2. What happens if we remove some trash from BB’s range?

3. What is the value of fold equity?

4. What happens if we reverse the positions?

Experiment: Remove trips+ from both ranges
Sizing shifts upwards significantly when
we remove trips+ from both ranges!
Experiment: Remove trash from BB’s range

Removed hands with

less than 25% equity
from BB’s range.

How will this affect

our strategy in the
BTN?
Experiment: Remove trash from BB’s range
We check more, but the
preferred sizing also
increases.

We’ve increased the value

of fold equity, and are now
targeting stronger hands.

BB donks about 30% of

range for a ⅓ size.
Measurement: Value of fold equity
Equity against BB
folding range

Left: Fold vs 125%

Right: Fold vs 33%

Experiment: Reverse positions

Sizing increases
slightly. This is
because IP’s range
has more EV, which
increases the value
gained from folds.
Experiment Outcomes:

1. What happens if we remove trips+ from both ranges?

-We size up significantly

2. What happens if we remove some trash from BB’s range?

-Sizing up again, but also checking a lot more

3. What is the value of fold equity?

-Very low for most made hands. The hands that fold have virtually no equity against our value region.

4. What happens if we reverse the positions?

 GTO Wizard Link

BTN vs BB Q83m

Why is a small bet preferred?

● Board is too wet?
● Too many nutted hands in BB
range?
● Low fold equity value?
● BB range inelasticity?
● Too many equity flipping
runouts
Experiments:

1. What happens if we remove made flushes from both ranges?

2. What happens if we remove some trash from BB’s range?

3. What is the value of fold equity?

4. What happens if we reverse the positions?

 GTO Wizard Link

BTN vs BB Q83m

Why is a small bet preferred?

● Board is too wet?
● Too many nutted hands in BB
range?
● Fold equity?
● Too many medium hands?
● BB range inelasticity?
● BB won’t be able to defend wide
enough?
Experiments:

1. What happens if we remove made flushes from both ranges?

2. What happens if we remove some trash from BB’s range?

3. What is the value of fold equity?

4. What happens if we reverse the positions?

Experiment: Remove flushes from both ranges
Sizing shifts upwards significantly when
we remove flushes from both ranges!
Experiment: Removed trash from BB’s range

Sizing shifts upwards significantly when

we remove trash from BB’s range.

Again, this is because we’ve increased

the value of fold equity, and are now
targeting a larger hand class.

BB donks 35% of their range for ⅓ size.

Measurement: Value of fold equity
Equity against BB
folding range

Left: Fold vs 125%

Right: Fold vs 33%

(Flushes excluded - they have
almost 100% against folding
range)
Experiment: Reverse positions

BTN checks significantly more often

when OOP.

The value of implied odds is

exaggerated in position.

Monotone boards are highly susceptible

to exploitation. Capped ranges can be
punished with massive bets on later
streets!
Experiment Outcomes:

1. What happens if we remove flushes from both ranges?

-We size up significantly

2. What happens if we remove some trash from BB’s range?

-Sizing up again, but also checking a lot more

3. What is the value of fold equity?

-low to medium depending on sizing

4. What happens if we reverse the positions?

-Checking A LOT more

 GTO Wizard Link

BTN vs BB J95tt

Why is a large bet preferred?

● Board is too wet?
● Too many draws in BB range?
● High fold equity value?
● BB range elasticity?
● BB has many hands that want to
continue?
Experiments:

1. What happens if we remove 2pair+ from both ranges?

2. What happens if we add a bunch of draws to BB’s range?

3. What is the value of fold equity?

Experiment: Remove 2pair+ from both ranges
Sizing shifts upwards significantly when
we remove 2pair from both ranges!
Experiment: Give BB extra draws

BB gets all flush draws, as well as

T8/QT in full

Sizing shifts upwards, also checking a

bit more
Measurement: Value of fold equity
Equity against BB
folding range

Left: Fold vs 125%

Right: Fold vs 33%

Experiment Outcomes:

1. What happens if we remove 2pair+ from both ranges?

-Size up significantly

2. What happens if we add a bunch of draws to BB’s range?

-Size up, and check more

3. What is the value of fold equity?

-Medium/high with an overbet, very low with a small bet

Conclusion

Bet sizing is complicated.

The incentives around bet sizing largely relate to nut advantage, and the value of fold equity.
The SPR and portion of nutted hands in each range dictates which hands can play for stacks,
which ultimately controls bet sizing.
The middle of your range acts as an anchor which the top of your range must adequately
defend.
Fold equity acts as an incentive to bet. If you fold out hands that have no equity against the
value portion of your range, then the value of fold equity is low. And Vice-versa.