Views on Population

There are different views regarding size of the population. These views can be seen in
three broad groups namely

pessimists led by the famous work of Malthus at the end of 18th century;
optimists like Ester Boserup and Julian Simon; and finally,

neutralists like Karl Marx who looked upon population issues in the context of
economic organization of production, and

Edwin Cannan and Carr Saunders views on optimum population.

 Population & Development
 Development as the best contraceptive echoed in World Population Conference at
Bucharest by the Indian Delegation in 1974
 Though the development is subjective term, but it assumed improvement in all spheres of
life including per capita income, food and nutrition, education, employment, environment,
transportation, health and sanitation.
 In recent years, the debate on the relationship between population and development has
taken a new turn in the concept of demographic dividend. Bloom, Canning and Sevilla
(2003) have argued that it is not the size and growth but the age-composition of population
that is closely associated with economic development.
 Changes in the age composition of population result favoring economic growth as a country
passes through demographic transition.
 Demographic Determinants of Labour Supply
The two major factors which determine the size of the labour force are:
 (1) demographic factors, principally the age-sex structure of the population which is
determined by fertility, mortality and migration; and
 (2) the propensity to participate in the labour force or the activity rates of different age-
sex groups.

 Age Structure
 Fertility
 Mortality
 Migration
 Economic Determinants of Labour Supply
 Employment and Income Change
 Employment Conditions
 Composition of Employment
Role of Capital Accumulation in a Labour Surplus Economy and
Lewis Growth Model
Prof. W.A Lewis has developed a systematic theory of economic development with
unlimited supplies of labour. According to him the crucial problem of underdeveloped
economy is how to initiate the process of Economic development in a situation of scarcity of
capital and unlimited supply of labour.
 In a typical underdeveloped economy, there are two sectors:

 (i) Large subsistence sector or indigenous traditional sector, which is characterized by

abundant labour, disguised unemployment, very low productivity of labour. It is mostly a
self-employment sector.
 (ii) A small capital sector, which uses reproducible capital, modern techniques, employs
labour on wages with a profit motive.
Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour
 Criticism
(i) The unlimited labour available in the subsistence sector is unskilled and may not be
suitable for absorption in the modern sector.
(ii) It is possible that the capitalist class may use the profits earned not for employing more
people but for buying machines.
(iii) The process of transfer of labour from the subsistence sector can stop if the wage rate
in the subsistence sector increases due to a declining number of workers in that sector or
technological improvement in agriculture.
(iv)Capital sector might expand the output but might face difficulties in selling it.
(v) This model requires a class of entrepreneurs who bring about this transfer but in
underdeveloped economies, there may not be many such entrepreneurs.
 
 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF INDIA, 1901-2011
Period/ Population Increment Average Crude Crude Life expectancy at Total Percent
Year (millions) per decade annual death birth birth (years) fertility urban
(millions) growth rate rate   rate per
rate (per (per   woman
(percent) 1000) 1000) Male Female
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) (ix) (x)
1901 238 - - - - - - - 10.8
1951 361 25 0.83 37.2 45.6 27.4 27.8 5.86 17.3
1961 439 78 1.96 25.9 45.5 36.8 36.6 6.11 18.0
1971 548 109 2.22 21.3 43.5 44.0 43.0 6.50 19.9
1981 683 135 2.20 16.0 38.0 50.0 49.0 5.40 23.3
1991 846 163 2.14 13.6 35.0 55.5 56.0 4.60 25.7
2001 1029 183 1.93 9.3 28.2 60.8 62.3 3.50 27.8
2011 1210 181 1.64 7.2 21.1 64.7 68.2 2.6 31.2
Notes: 1. Except for columns (ii) and (x), all the figures shown pertain to periods. For the first period (i.e. 1901-
51) the figures given are averages for the five intercensal decades. (Dyson, 2004).
2. For life expectancy in 2011 see http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/life-expectancy-research
3. For CBR and CDR, Sample registration reports, Census, Registrar General of India.
4. All other figures from census of various years.
Trends of CBR and CDR
50
45.6 45.5
45 43.5
40 37.2 38
35
35
30 28.2
CBR/CDR

25.9
25 21.3 21.1
20 CDR
16
15 13.6 CBR
10 9.3
7.2
5
0
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Year
Size and Age Composition of India’s Population

Year 1991 2001 2011 2050

Populatio
Age Population Population Population
% % % n %
Group in million in million in million
in million

0-14 312.4 37.2 363.5 35.3 372.4 30.7 328.2 19.8

15-59 464.8 55.4 585.6 56.9 729.9 60.2 996.3 60.1
60+ 57.7 6.7 76.6 7.4 103.8 8.5 332 20
Age not
4.7 0.5 2.7 0.3 4.5 0.3 - -
Stated
 Trends of Size and Age Composition of India's Population
1991-2050
70

60 60.2 60.1
55.4 56.9
50
% of Population

40 37.2 35.3
30.7 0-14
30 15-59
19.8 60+
20
20
10 6.7 7.4 8.5

0
1991 2001 2011 2050
Years
 India: Real GDP Growth & Labour Force
12

10 9.8 9.6
9.3 9.3
8.4 8.4 8.2
8
6.9
6 7 7.7 7.6 5.4
7.1
6.4 6.4 3.9 6.6
5
4
3.5
1.8
2
2 2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.7 2 1.9 1.9
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Labour Force Growth Y/y Productivity

Status of Vocational Training Received or Being Received by Persons in the
Age Group 15-59 Years (in percent) in India (Rural + Urban)

Received Vocational Training

Non - Formal
Receiving Did Not
Category
Formal Receive
of
Vocational Vocational
Person Formal
Training Self - Learning All
Hereditary Others (col.3 to 7)
Training
learning on the job

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Male 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.4 2.8 0.4 9.2 90.0

Female 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 4.1 95.4

All Persons 0.6 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.7 0.5 6.7 92.6
Changing Age-Sex Pyramid of India 1991-2051